EFFECT OF TIME HORIZON ON WIND SPEED PREDICTION WITH ANN

S. PUSAT, (Yıldız Teknik Üniversitesi, Makine Fakültesi, Makine Mühendisliği Bölümü, İstanbul, Türkiye)
M.T. AKKOYUNLU (Necretin Erbakan Üniversitesi, Ereğli Mühendislik ve Doğa Bilimleri Fakültesi, Enerji Sistemleri Mühendisliği Bölümü, Ereğli, Konya, Türkiye)
Journal of Thermal Engineering
4 2
Yıl: 2018 Cilt: 4 Sayı: 2 Sayfa Aralığı: 1770 - 1779 Metin Dili: İngilizce İndeks Tarihi: 09-08-2019

EFFECT OF TIME HORIZON ON WIND SPEED PREDICTION WITH ANN

Öz:
Proper utilization of renewable energy sources in electricity production is inevitable due to the environmentalconcerns and global warming fight. Therefore, predictability of renewable electricity is a very significant issue fora long time. Main aim of this study, different from the literature, is to investigate the change of wind speedprediction errors for different time horizons. Different prediction time horizons (10, 30, 60, 90 and 120 minutes)were used, and the results were compared through the error measures and the regression values. The mean squarederrors and the regression values vary between 0.819 and 5.570, and between 77.8% and 97.1%, respectively. Theprediction error changes almost logarithmically, and the rate of change decreases with the increasing time horizon.A new analysis approach was proposed to see the change of the prediction error with time horizon. The equation,y = 1.5413ln(x) - 2.7428, representing the change of the mean squared error with time horizon was obtained.
Anahtar Kelime:

Konular: Fizik, Uygulamalı
Belge Türü: Makale Makale Türü: Araştırma Makalesi Erişim Türü: Erişime Açık
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APA PUSAT S, AKKOYUNLU M (2018). EFFECT OF TIME HORIZON ON WIND SPEED PREDICTION WITH ANN. , 1770 - 1779.
Chicago PUSAT S.,AKKOYUNLU M.T. EFFECT OF TIME HORIZON ON WIND SPEED PREDICTION WITH ANN. (2018): 1770 - 1779.
MLA PUSAT S.,AKKOYUNLU M.T. EFFECT OF TIME HORIZON ON WIND SPEED PREDICTION WITH ANN. , 2018, ss.1770 - 1779.
AMA PUSAT S,AKKOYUNLU M EFFECT OF TIME HORIZON ON WIND SPEED PREDICTION WITH ANN. . 2018; 1770 - 1779.
Vancouver PUSAT S,AKKOYUNLU M EFFECT OF TIME HORIZON ON WIND SPEED PREDICTION WITH ANN. . 2018; 1770 - 1779.
IEEE PUSAT S,AKKOYUNLU M "EFFECT OF TIME HORIZON ON WIND SPEED PREDICTION WITH ANN." , ss.1770 - 1779, 2018.
ISNAD PUSAT, S. - AKKOYUNLU, M.T.. "EFFECT OF TIME HORIZON ON WIND SPEED PREDICTION WITH ANN". (2018), 1770-1779.
APA PUSAT S, AKKOYUNLU M (2018). EFFECT OF TIME HORIZON ON WIND SPEED PREDICTION WITH ANN. Journal of Thermal Engineering, 4(2), 1770 - 1779.
Chicago PUSAT S.,AKKOYUNLU M.T. EFFECT OF TIME HORIZON ON WIND SPEED PREDICTION WITH ANN. Journal of Thermal Engineering 4, no.2 (2018): 1770 - 1779.
MLA PUSAT S.,AKKOYUNLU M.T. EFFECT OF TIME HORIZON ON WIND SPEED PREDICTION WITH ANN. Journal of Thermal Engineering, vol.4, no.2, 2018, ss.1770 - 1779.
AMA PUSAT S,AKKOYUNLU M EFFECT OF TIME HORIZON ON WIND SPEED PREDICTION WITH ANN. Journal of Thermal Engineering. 2018; 4(2): 1770 - 1779.
Vancouver PUSAT S,AKKOYUNLU M EFFECT OF TIME HORIZON ON WIND SPEED PREDICTION WITH ANN. Journal of Thermal Engineering. 2018; 4(2): 1770 - 1779.
IEEE PUSAT S,AKKOYUNLU M "EFFECT OF TIME HORIZON ON WIND SPEED PREDICTION WITH ANN." Journal of Thermal Engineering, 4, ss.1770 - 1779, 2018.
ISNAD PUSAT, S. - AKKOYUNLU, M.T.. "EFFECT OF TIME HORIZON ON WIND SPEED PREDICTION WITH ANN". Journal of Thermal Engineering 4/2 (2018), 1770-1779.
Sayfa Oluşturulma Tarihi
17-04-2024 11:51

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