Estimation of net electricity consumption of Turkey

Mehmet BİLGİLİ (Çukurova Üniversitesi, Adana, Türkiye)
Isı Bilimi ve Tekniği Dergisi
7 1
Yıl: 2009 Cilt: 29 Sayı: 2 Sayfa Aralığı: 89 - 98 Metin Dili: Türkçe İndeks Tarihi: 29-07-2022

Estimation of net electricity consumption of Turkey

Öz:
Bu çalışma lineer regresyon (LR), lineer olmayan regresyon (NLR) ve yapay sinir ağları (YSA) metotları kullanılarak 2012 yılına kadar Türkiye’nin net elektrik tüketiminin tahmini ile ilgilidir. Kurulu güç, brüt elektrik üretimi, nüfus ve toplam abone sayısı bağımsız değişkenler olarak seçilmiştir. Gelecek elektrik tüketimi tahmini için iki farklı senaryo (yüksek ve düşük) önerilmiştir. LR, NLR ve YSA modelleriyle elde edilen sonuçlar birbirleriyle ve ayrıca Enerji ve Tabi Kaynaklar Bakanlığı (ETKB) ve literatürdeki sonuçlarla karşılaştırılmıştır. YSA metodunun performans değerleri, lineer ve lineer olmayan metotlarının performans değerlerinden daha iyi sonuçlar vermiştir. Sonuç olarak YSA metoduna göre, 2012 yılında Türkiye’nin net elektrik tüketiminin yüksek senaryo için 251.1 TWh, düşük senaryo için ise 221.07 TWh olacağı hesaplanmıştır.
Anahtar Kelime:

Konular: Termodinamik

Türkiye'nin net elektrik tüketiminin tahmini

Öz:
This paper deals with estimation of the net electricity consumption of Turkey until the year 2012 based on linear regression (LR), nonlinear regression (NLR), and artificial neural networks (ANNs) methods. Installed capacity, gross electricity generation, population and total subscribership are selected as independent variables. Two different scenarios (high and low) are proposed for predicting the future electricity consumption. The LR, NLR and ANN model results are also compared with each other, and the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources (MENR) projection and literature results. Results show that the performance values of the ANN method are better than the performance values of the LR and NLR models. According to the high and low scenario, and ANN model, Turkey’s net electricity consumptions will be 251.1 and 221.07 TWh by the year 2012, respectively.
Anahtar Kelime:

Konular: Termodinamik
Belge Türü: Makale Makale Türü: Araştırma Makalesi Erişim Türü: Erişime Açık
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APA Bilgili M (2009). Estimation of net electricity consumption of Turkey. , 89 - 98.
Chicago Bilgili Mehmet Estimation of net electricity consumption of Turkey. (2009): 89 - 98.
MLA Bilgili Mehmet Estimation of net electricity consumption of Turkey. , 2009, ss.89 - 98.
AMA Bilgili M Estimation of net electricity consumption of Turkey. . 2009; 89 - 98.
Vancouver Bilgili M Estimation of net electricity consumption of Turkey. . 2009; 89 - 98.
IEEE Bilgili M "Estimation of net electricity consumption of Turkey." , ss.89 - 98, 2009.
ISNAD Bilgili, Mehmet. "Estimation of net electricity consumption of Turkey". (2009), 89-98.
APA Bilgili M (2009). Estimation of net electricity consumption of Turkey. Isı Bilimi ve Tekniği Dergisi, 29(2), 89 - 98.
Chicago Bilgili Mehmet Estimation of net electricity consumption of Turkey. Isı Bilimi ve Tekniği Dergisi 29, no.2 (2009): 89 - 98.
MLA Bilgili Mehmet Estimation of net electricity consumption of Turkey. Isı Bilimi ve Tekniği Dergisi, vol.29, no.2, 2009, ss.89 - 98.
AMA Bilgili M Estimation of net electricity consumption of Turkey. Isı Bilimi ve Tekniği Dergisi. 2009; 29(2): 89 - 98.
Vancouver Bilgili M Estimation of net electricity consumption of Turkey. Isı Bilimi ve Tekniği Dergisi. 2009; 29(2): 89 - 98.
IEEE Bilgili M "Estimation of net electricity consumption of Turkey." Isı Bilimi ve Tekniği Dergisi, 29, ss.89 - 98, 2009.
ISNAD Bilgili, Mehmet. "Estimation of net electricity consumption of Turkey". Isı Bilimi ve Tekniği Dergisi 29/2 (2009), 89-98.
Sayfa Oluşturulma Tarihi
22-04-2024 14:28

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