Yıl: 2012 Cilt: 23 Sayı: 83 Sayfa Aralığı: 1 - 36 Metin Dili: Türkçe İndeks Tarihi: 29-07-2022

Fertility, employment and capital accumulation: A case study for Turkey

Öz:
Türkiyede doğurganlık oranları son yirmi yılda istikrarlı bir biçimde azalma göstermiştir. Bu çalışmada doğurganlık oranlarındaki değişmelerin nüfus yapısı, işgücü arzı ve fiziki sermaye stoku çerçevesinde istihdam üzerindeki etkileri önümüzdeki kırk yıl için incelenmiştir. Bu çalışma doğurganlık oranlarında olası tersine bir gelişmenin sözü edilen değişkenler üzerindeki etkisini de incelemektedir. Çalışma üç aşamada gerçekleştirilmiştir. İlk aşamada, Türkiye nüfusu yaş sınıflarına göre doğurganlık oranları ve hayatta kalma oranları ile tanımlanan Leslie matrisi aracılığıyla öngörülmüştür. Öngörüler farklı doğurganlık oranları için tekrarlanmıştır. İkinci aşamada, çalışan başına fiziki sermaye stoku zaman serisi verileri ile öngörülmüştür. Üçüncü aşamada, ilk iki aşamada elde edilen öngörüler birleştirilmiştir. Böylece farklı doğurganlık oranları altında öngörülen işgücü arzını istihdam edebilmek için gerekli sermaye birikimi artış hızı ne olmalıdır sorusu cevaplanmıştır. Analiz sonuçlarına göre doğurganlık oranları mevcut düzeyinde kalsa da istihdam açısından asıl etki yaklaşık on beş yıl sonra ortaya çıkmakta ve artan işgücü arzını istihdam etmek için gerekli sermaye birikimi yıllık ortalama artış hızının en az yüzde 5 düzeyinde olması gerekmektedir. Öngörülen bu değer incelenen dönemde gerçekleşen sermaye birikimi artış hızından (yaklaşık yüzde 4) daha büyüktür.
Anahtar Kelime:

Konular: İşletme İktisat

Doğurganlık, istihdam ve sermaye birikimi: Türkiye için bir analiz

Öz:
In the last two decades Turkish fertility rates have been steadily decreasing. This paper is an attempt to examine the effects of a change in fertility rates onpopulation structure, labor supply, and employment in relation to physical capital stockfor the next four decades. This study also evaluates the effects of a possible reversal change in fertility rates on the variables mentioned above. The study is carried out in three stages. In the first stage, population of Turkey is projected with Leslie matrix defined by age-specific fertility rates and survival rates. Projections are repeated for different fertility rates. In the second stage, physical capital stock per employed person is forecasted using time series data. In the third stage, the predictions obtained through the first two stages are combined. Thus, the question of what should be the warranted growth rates of physical capital stock in order to employ labor force projected under different fertility rates is answered. According to the results, increases in fertility rates lead to an increase in labor supply with a 15 year lag, even if fertility rates have remained unchanged in their current level. The physical capital stock growth rate that is necessary for the employment of the extra labor supply emanating from an increase in fertility rates is found to be at least 5 %. This was higher than the actual growth rate of physical capital stock realized in the last decade which was approximately 4 %.
Anahtar Kelime:

Konular: İşletme İktisat
Belge Türü: Makale Makale Türü: Araştırma Makalesi Erişim Türü: Erişime Açık
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APA AÇIKGÖZ Ş (2012). Fertility, employment and capital accumulation: A case study for Turkey. , 1 - 36.
Chicago AÇIKGÖZ ŞENAY Fertility, employment and capital accumulation: A case study for Turkey. (2012): 1 - 36.
MLA AÇIKGÖZ ŞENAY Fertility, employment and capital accumulation: A case study for Turkey. , 2012, ss.1 - 36.
AMA AÇIKGÖZ Ş Fertility, employment and capital accumulation: A case study for Turkey. . 2012; 1 - 36.
Vancouver AÇIKGÖZ Ş Fertility, employment and capital accumulation: A case study for Turkey. . 2012; 1 - 36.
IEEE AÇIKGÖZ Ş "Fertility, employment and capital accumulation: A case study for Turkey." , ss.1 - 36, 2012.
ISNAD AÇIKGÖZ, ŞENAY. "Fertility, employment and capital accumulation: A case study for Turkey". (2012), 1-36.
APA AÇIKGÖZ Ş (2012). Fertility, employment and capital accumulation: A case study for Turkey. Ekonomik Yaklaşım, 23(83), 1 - 36.
Chicago AÇIKGÖZ ŞENAY Fertility, employment and capital accumulation: A case study for Turkey. Ekonomik Yaklaşım 23, no.83 (2012): 1 - 36.
MLA AÇIKGÖZ ŞENAY Fertility, employment and capital accumulation: A case study for Turkey. Ekonomik Yaklaşım, vol.23, no.83, 2012, ss.1 - 36.
AMA AÇIKGÖZ Ş Fertility, employment and capital accumulation: A case study for Turkey. Ekonomik Yaklaşım. 2012; 23(83): 1 - 36.
Vancouver AÇIKGÖZ Ş Fertility, employment and capital accumulation: A case study for Turkey. Ekonomik Yaklaşım. 2012; 23(83): 1 - 36.
IEEE AÇIKGÖZ Ş "Fertility, employment and capital accumulation: A case study for Turkey." Ekonomik Yaklaşım, 23, ss.1 - 36, 2012.
ISNAD AÇIKGÖZ, ŞENAY. "Fertility, employment and capital accumulation: A case study for Turkey". Ekonomik Yaklaşım 23/83 (2012), 1-36.