Political business cycles in turkey: A fiscal approach

KARAKAŞ, Mesut

Political business cycles in turkey: A fiscal approach

Mesut KARAKAŞ (Gebze Yüksek Teknoloji Enstitüsü, İşletme Fakültesi, İktisat Bölümü, Kocaeli, Türkiye)

Yönetim ve Ekonomi: Celal Bayar Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi

4 3

Yıl: 2013 Cilt: 20 Sayı: 1 Sayfa Aralığı: 245 - 262 Metin Dili: Türkçe İndeks Tarihi: 29-07-2022

Political business cycles in turkey: A fiscal approach

Öz:

Politik iş çevrimi araştırmaları yalın iş çevrimi araştırmalarına alternatif olarak doğmuştur. Politik iş çevrimleri alanındaki araştırmalar seçmenlerin seçim dönemlerinde manipüle edilip, edilmediği üzerine yoğunlaşmaktadır. Ayrıca, politikacıların tekrar seçilmek için kullandıkları metodlar açığa çıkarılmaktadır. Bu makalede, Türkiye’de fırsatçı politik iş çevrimlerinin olup, olmadığına cevap aranmaya çalışılmıştır. Araştırmamız Türkiye’deki durumu belirlemek için mali politikalara odaklanmıştır. Politik iş çevrimleri ve mali değişkenler arasındaki ilişkileri keşfetmek için ARMA bağlamında basit ama güçlü zaman serisi modelleri kullanılmıştır. Ampirik sonuçlar Türkiye’de mükemmele yakın politik iş çevrimlerinin olduğunu göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelime:

Türkiye’de politik iş çevrimleri: Mali bir yaklaşım

Öz:

Political business cycle studies have arisen as alternatives to pure business cycle studies.The studies in the political business cycle area mainly try to answer the question that whether thevoters are manipulated in election periods or not. Also, the methods which the politicians use to bere-elected are uncovered. In this paper, we ask the question whether there are opportunisticpolitical business cycles in Turkey or not. Our study focuses on the fiscal policies to discover theTurkish case. We use simple but powerful time series models in ARMA context to discover therelationships between political business cycles and fiscal variables. Empirical results show thatthere are quite perfect opportunistic political business cycles in Turkey.

Anahtar Kelime:

Belge Türü: Makale Makale Türü: Araştırma Makalesi Erişim Türü: Erişime Açık

ALESINA, Alberto (1987), “Macroeconomic Policy in a Two-party System as a Repeated Game”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 102, 651-678.
ALESINA, Alberto (1988), “Credibility and Policy convergence in a Two-party System with Rational Voters”, American Economic Review, 78, 796-805.
ALESINA, Alberto, ROUBINI, Nouriel and Gerald D. COHEN (1992), Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy, MIT Press, Cambridge.
ALESINA, Alberto and Nouriel ROUBINI (1992), “Political cycles in OECD Economies”, Review of Economic Studies, 59, 663-688.
ASUTAY, Mehmet (2004), “Searching for Opportunistic Political Business Cycles in Turkey”, Paper presented in European Public Choice Society.
AYLAR İTİBARİYLE KONSOLİDE BÜTÇE VE GELİR GERÇEKLEŞMELERİ (1957-1993), Ankara Üniversitesi Basımevi.
BERUMENT, Hakan and Jac C. HECKELMAN (1998), “Political Business Cycles and Endogenous Elections”, Southern Economic Journal, 64(4), 987-1000.
DRAZEN, Allan (2000a), Political Economy in Macroeconomics, Princeton University Press, Nj.
DRAZEN, Allan (2000b), “The Political Business Cycle after 25 Years”, NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 15, 75-117.
EVDS CENTRAL BANK OF TURKEY, http://evds.tcmb.gov.tr/
FAIR, Ray C. (1978), “The Effects of Economic Events on Votes for President”, Review of Economics and Statistics, 60, 159-172.
GRIER, Kevin B. (1989), “On the Existence of a Political Monetary Cycle”, American Journal of Political Science, 33, 376-389.
HAYNES, Stephen E. and Joe A. STONE (1989), “Political Models of the Business Cycle Should be Reviewed”, Economic Inquiry, 28, 442-465.
HIBBS, Douglas A. (1977), “Political Parties and Macroeconomic Policy”, American Political Science Review, 71, 1467-1487.
JOHNSTON, Jack and John DINARDO (1997), Econometric Methods, McGraw-Hill.
KEECH, William R. and Kyoungsan PAK (1989), “Electoral Cycles and Budgetary Growth in Veterans’ Benefit Programs”, American Journal of Political Science, 33, 901-911.
KRAMER, Gerald H. (1971), “Short-term Fluctuations in US Voting Behavior, 1896-1964”, American Political Science Review, 65, 131-143.
KUZU, Yasemin (2003), “Political Business Cycle in the Turkish Economy:1977-2001”, METU Conference in Economics VII September 6-9, 2003, Ankara, Turkey.
NORDHAUS, William D. (1975), “The Political Business Cycle”, Review of Economic Studies, 42, 169-190.
ROGOFF, Kenneth and Anne SIBERT (1988), “Elections and Macroeconomic Policy Cycles”, Review of Economic Studies, 55, 1-16.
ROGOFF, Kenneth (1990), “Equilibrium Political Budget Cycles”, American Economic Review, 80, 21-36.
SEZGİN, Şennur (2007), “Türkiye’de Politik Konjonktürel Dalgalanmalar: 1950-2003 Dönemi”, Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, 62(2), 136-154.
TUFTE, Edward R. (1975), “Determinants of the Outcomes of Midterm Congressional Elections”, American Political Science Review, 69, 812-826.
TUFTE, Edward R. (1978), Political Control of the Economy, Princeton University Press, Princeton, Nj.
TUTAR, İbrahim and Aysit TANSEL (2000), “Political Business Cycles, Institutional Structure and Budget Deficits in Turkey”, Paper presented in Metu Conference in Economics.
TÜRKİYE SEÇİMLERİ, http://www.belgenet.net/
WILLIAMS, John T. (1990), “The political Manipulation of Macroeconomic Policy”, American Political Science Review, 84,767-795.

APA	KARAKAŞ M (2013). Political business cycles in turkey: A fiscal approach. , 245 - 262.
Chicago	KARAKAŞ Mesut Political business cycles in turkey: A fiscal approach. (2013): 245 - 262.
MLA	KARAKAŞ Mesut Political business cycles in turkey: A fiscal approach. , 2013, ss.245 - 262.
AMA	KARAKAŞ M Political business cycles in turkey: A fiscal approach. . 2013; 245 - 262.
Vancouver	KARAKAŞ M Political business cycles in turkey: A fiscal approach. . 2013; 245 - 262.
IEEE	KARAKAŞ M "Political business cycles in turkey: A fiscal approach." , ss.245 - 262, 2013.
ISNAD	KARAKAŞ, Mesut. "Political business cycles in turkey: A fiscal approach". (2013), 245-262.

APA	KARAKAŞ M (2013). Political business cycles in turkey: A fiscal approach. Yönetim ve Ekonomi: Celal Bayar Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 20(1), 245 - 262.
Chicago	KARAKAŞ Mesut Political business cycles in turkey: A fiscal approach. Yönetim ve Ekonomi: Celal Bayar Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 20, no.1 (2013): 245 - 262.
MLA	KARAKAŞ Mesut Political business cycles in turkey: A fiscal approach. Yönetim ve Ekonomi: Celal Bayar Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, vol.20, no.1, 2013, ss.245 - 262.
AMA	KARAKAŞ M Political business cycles in turkey: A fiscal approach. Yönetim ve Ekonomi: Celal Bayar Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi. 2013; 20(1): 245 - 262.
Vancouver	KARAKAŞ M Political business cycles in turkey: A fiscal approach. Yönetim ve Ekonomi: Celal Bayar Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi. 2013; 20(1): 245 - 262.
IEEE	KARAKAŞ M "Political business cycles in turkey: A fiscal approach." Yönetim ve Ekonomi: Celal Bayar Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 20, ss.245 - 262, 2013.
ISNAD	KARAKAŞ, Mesut. "Political business cycles in turkey: A fiscal approach". Yönetim ve Ekonomi: Celal Bayar Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 20/1 (2013), 245-262.