Yıl: 2014 Cilt: 21 Sayı: 2 Sayfa Aralığı: 293 - 303 Metin Dili: Türkçe İndeks Tarihi: 29-07-2022

Analyzing The Relationship Among The GDP -Current Account Deficit and Short Term Capital Flows: The Case of Emerging Markets

Öz:
Bu çalışmada, cari işlemler açığı, kısa vadeli sermaye akımları ve GDP arasında yükselenekonomilerde nedensellik ilişkisinin olup olmadığı analiz edilmiştir. Nedensellik te sti yapılmadanönce, paneli oluşturan ülkelerde yatay kesit bağımlılığı olup olmadığını tespit edebilmek için CDLMtestler yapılmıştır. CDLM testlerinin sonuçunda, paneli oluşturan yükselen ekonomilerde yatay kesitbağımlılığı tespit edilmiştir. CDLM testlerinden sonra panel nedensellik testi yapılmıştır. Panelnedensellik testleri sonucunda, cari işlem açığı ile GDP arasında çift yönlü, kısa vadeli sermayeakımlarından cari işlem açığına ve GDPye doğru tek yönlü nedensellik belirlenmiştir.
Anahtar Kelime:

GDP - Cari İşlem Açığı ve Kısa Vadeli Sermaye Akımları Arasındaki İlişkinin Analizi: Yükselen Piyasalar Örneği

Öz:
In this study, it was analyzed if there was causal relationship among the current deficit,short term capital flows and economic growth in emerging markets. Before causality test was done,CDLM tests were done in order to the fact that to be able to determine if there was cross sectiondependence in countries form the panel. At the end of CDLM tests cross section dependence inemerging markets form the panel was determined. Then, panel causality test developed was done.According to the result of panel causality test bidirectional causality between current accountdeficit and GDP, unidirectiona l causality from short term capital flows to current deficit and GDPwere determined.
Anahtar Kelime:

Belge Türü: Makale Makale Türü: Araştırma Makalesi Erişim Türü: Erişime Açık
  • BAGNAI, Alberto and Stefano MANZOCCHI (1999), “Current Account Reversals in Developing Countries: The Role of Fundamentals”, Open Economic Review, 10(2), 143 -163.
  • BREUSCH, Trevor and Adrian R. PAGAN (1980), “ The Lagrange Multiplier Test and Its Application to Model Specifications in Econometrics”, Reviews of Economics Studies, 47(1), 239 -253.
  • BUSSIERE, Matthieu, FRATZSCHER, Marcel and Gernot J. MULLER (2004), “Current Account Dynamics in OECD and EU Acceding C ountries: An Intertemporal Approach” European Central Bank Working Paper , No: 311.
  • CALDERÓN, César, CHONG, Alberto and Norman LOAYZO (1999), “Determinants of Current Account Deficits in Developing Countries”, Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, No:51. CHINN, Menzie D. and Eswar S. PRASAD (2000), “Medium Term Determinants of Current Accounts in Industrial and Developing Countries: An Empirical Exploration”, NBER Working Paper, No: 7581.
  • EMIRMAHMUTOGLU, Furkan and Nezir KOSE (2011), “Testing For Granger Causality in Heterogenous Mixed Panels”, Economic Modelling , 28(3), 870 -876.
  • FISCHER, Stanley (1993), “The Role of Macroeconomic Factors in Growth”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 32(3), 485 -511.
  • FREUND, Caroline L. (2000), “ Current Account Adjustment in Industrialized Countries”, International Finance Discussion Papers , No:692, December.
  • HEPAKTAN, C. Erdem and Serkan ÇINAR (2012), “OECD Ülkelerinde Büyüme -Cari İşlemler Dengesi İlişkisi: Panel Veri Analizi”, Anadolu Üniversite si Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 12(1), 43 -57.
  • MACKINNON, James G. (1996), “Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Co - integration Tests”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 11(6), 601 -618.
  • MILESI-FERRETTI, Gian M. and Assaf RAZIN (1996), “Current Acco unt Sustainability”, NBER Working Paper, No: 5791, October.
  • PESARAN, M. Hashem (2004), “General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels”, Working Paper , No: 0435, University of Cambridge.
  • PESARAN, M. Hashem, ULLAH, Am an and Takashi YAMAGATA (2008), “A Bias -Adjusted LM Test of Error Cross -Section Independence”, Econometrics Journal, 11(1), 105 -127.
  • SIMS, Christopher A., STOCK, James H. and Mark W. WATSON (1990), “Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots”, Econometrica , 58(1), 113 -144.
  • TODA, Hiro Y. and Taku YAMAMOTO (1995), “Statistical Inference in Vector Autoregressions with Possibly Integrated Processes”, Journal of Econometrics , 66(1 -2), 225 -250.
APA Akbas Y, LEBE F, ULUYOL O (2014). Analyzing The Relationship Among The GDP -Current Account Deficit and Short Term Capital Flows: The Case of Emerging Markets. , 293 - 303.
Chicago Akbas Yusuf Ekrem,LEBE FUAT,ULUYOL Osman Analyzing The Relationship Among The GDP -Current Account Deficit and Short Term Capital Flows: The Case of Emerging Markets. (2014): 293 - 303.
MLA Akbas Yusuf Ekrem,LEBE FUAT,ULUYOL Osman Analyzing The Relationship Among The GDP -Current Account Deficit and Short Term Capital Flows: The Case of Emerging Markets. , 2014, ss.293 - 303.
AMA Akbas Y,LEBE F,ULUYOL O Analyzing The Relationship Among The GDP -Current Account Deficit and Short Term Capital Flows: The Case of Emerging Markets. . 2014; 293 - 303.
Vancouver Akbas Y,LEBE F,ULUYOL O Analyzing The Relationship Among The GDP -Current Account Deficit and Short Term Capital Flows: The Case of Emerging Markets. . 2014; 293 - 303.
IEEE Akbas Y,LEBE F,ULUYOL O "Analyzing The Relationship Among The GDP -Current Account Deficit and Short Term Capital Flows: The Case of Emerging Markets." , ss.293 - 303, 2014.
ISNAD Akbas, Yusuf Ekrem vd. "Analyzing The Relationship Among The GDP -Current Account Deficit and Short Term Capital Flows: The Case of Emerging Markets". (2014), 293-303.
APA Akbas Y, LEBE F, ULUYOL O (2014). Analyzing The Relationship Among The GDP -Current Account Deficit and Short Term Capital Flows: The Case of Emerging Markets. Yönetim ve Ekonomi: Celal Bayar Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 21(2), 293 - 303.
Chicago Akbas Yusuf Ekrem,LEBE FUAT,ULUYOL Osman Analyzing The Relationship Among The GDP -Current Account Deficit and Short Term Capital Flows: The Case of Emerging Markets. Yönetim ve Ekonomi: Celal Bayar Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 21, no.2 (2014): 293 - 303.
MLA Akbas Yusuf Ekrem,LEBE FUAT,ULUYOL Osman Analyzing The Relationship Among The GDP -Current Account Deficit and Short Term Capital Flows: The Case of Emerging Markets. Yönetim ve Ekonomi: Celal Bayar Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, vol.21, no.2, 2014, ss.293 - 303.
AMA Akbas Y,LEBE F,ULUYOL O Analyzing The Relationship Among The GDP -Current Account Deficit and Short Term Capital Flows: The Case of Emerging Markets. Yönetim ve Ekonomi: Celal Bayar Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi. 2014; 21(2): 293 - 303.
Vancouver Akbas Y,LEBE F,ULUYOL O Analyzing The Relationship Among The GDP -Current Account Deficit and Short Term Capital Flows: The Case of Emerging Markets. Yönetim ve Ekonomi: Celal Bayar Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi. 2014; 21(2): 293 - 303.
IEEE Akbas Y,LEBE F,ULUYOL O "Analyzing The Relationship Among The GDP -Current Account Deficit and Short Term Capital Flows: The Case of Emerging Markets." Yönetim ve Ekonomi: Celal Bayar Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 21, ss.293 - 303, 2014.
ISNAD Akbas, Yusuf Ekrem vd. "Analyzing The Relationship Among The GDP -Current Account Deficit and Short Term Capital Flows: The Case of Emerging Markets". Yönetim ve Ekonomi: Celal Bayar Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 21/2 (2014), 293-303.