Model predicts a future pine processionary moth risk in Artvin and adjacent regions
Yıl: 2014 Cilt: 15 Sayı: 2 Sayfa Aralığı: 85 - 95 Metin Dili: Türkçe İndeks Tarihi: 29-07-2022
Model predicts a future pine processionary moth risk in Artvin and adjacent regions
Öz: Son 1.300 yılın en yüksek oranlarına ulaşan iklim değişimi son zamanlarda araştırmacıların ilgisiniçekmekte ve çevresel etkilerini tahminleyen birçok araştırmaya konu olmaktadır. Çam kese böceği (ÇKB),Thaumetopoea wilkinsoni (Lepidoptera, Notodontidae), Doğu Akdeniz Havzasındaki çamlarda sonderece önemli zararlara neden olan ve ülkemizde de neredeyse tüm sahil şeridini işgal etmiş bir güvedir.Avrupalı kardeş türü olan T. pityocampanın küresel ısınmanın etkisiyle yayılış alanına kuzey enlemleredoğru genişlettiği bilinmektedir. Ancak söz konusu türün Türkiyedeki mevcut ve gelecekteki durumu ileilgili bilgilerimiz eksiktir. Bu çalışmada Türkiyedeki ÇKB populasyonlarının bugünkü ve gelecektidağılımının Maksimum Entropi Modellemesi (Maxent) kullanılarak tahmin edilm esi amaçlanmıştır. 65örnekleme noktası ve birbiriyle en az ilişkili ve dağılım modeline en çok katkı sağlayan 7 iklimsel değişkenile birlikte kullanılmıştır. İstatistiksel sınamalar oluşturulan modelin iyi bir şekilde uyum sağladığınıgösterdiğinden, bu model gelecek tahminlemesinde kullanılmıştır. Modelimiz çam kese böceğinin dağılımalanını Türkiyenin kuzeydoğusuna doğru genişleteceğini tahminlemiştir. Günümüzde iklimsel olarakÇKB istila riski taşımayan Artvin ve civarı modele göre 2020 ve 2050 yıllar ında ÇKB istilası için uygunhale gelecektir
Anahtar Kelime: Konular:
Artvin ve çevresinde çam kese böceği riskinin geleceğe yönelik modellenmesi
Öz: In recent decades, climate change has been receiving a lot of attention from researchers as it is believed tobe proceeding at an extraordinary rate during the last 1,300 years and many studies have attempted todocument and predict its environmental effects. Eastern winter pine processionary moth (PPM),Thaumetopoea wilkinsoni (Lepidoptera, Notodontidae), an economically important pest of pines in theEastern Mediterranean Basin, distributed through almost all coastal regions within Turkey. Even though,its European sister species, T. pityocampa is known to be an aggressive invader under global warming inEurope and proved to expand its range towards northern latitudes; there is a lack of knowledge ab outspecies current and future status through Turkey, especially Artvin and adjacent regions (Eastern BlackSea Region) where it has not have much effect yet. In this study, we aimed to predict PPM s current andfuture distribution through Artvin and adjac ent regions by using Maximum Entropy Modeling (Maxent)software. We used 65 sampling points in conjunction with 7 climatic variables that were least inter-correlated and with greatest significant contribution to the distribution model. As the statistical testsshowed that the fit of the generated model is good, we further carried on using this model for futurepredictions. Our results indicated that PPM would expand its range towards Artvin and adjacent regions.Even though, currently this region is not under risk of PPM invasion, models suggest that future climaticconditions might trigger PPM invasion in near future - by 2050 - 2080.
Anahtar Kelime: Konular:
Belge Türü: Makale Makale Türü: Araştırma Makalesi Erişim Türü: Erişime Açık
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| APA | İPEKDAL K, BETON D (2014). Model predicts a future pine processionary moth risk in Artvin and adjacent regions. , 85 - 95. |
| Chicago | İPEKDAL KAHRAMAN,BETON Damla Model predicts a future pine processionary moth risk in Artvin and adjacent regions. (2014): 85 - 95. |
| MLA | İPEKDAL KAHRAMAN,BETON Damla Model predicts a future pine processionary moth risk in Artvin and adjacent regions. , 2014, ss.85 - 95. |
| AMA | İPEKDAL K,BETON D Model predicts a future pine processionary moth risk in Artvin and adjacent regions. . 2014; 85 - 95. |
| Vancouver | İPEKDAL K,BETON D Model predicts a future pine processionary moth risk in Artvin and adjacent regions. . 2014; 85 - 95. |
| IEEE | İPEKDAL K,BETON D "Model predicts a future pine processionary moth risk in Artvin and adjacent regions." , ss.85 - 95, 2014. |
| ISNAD | İPEKDAL, KAHRAMAN - BETON, Damla. "Model predicts a future pine processionary moth risk in Artvin and adjacent regions". (2014), 85-95. |
| APA | İPEKDAL K, BETON D (2014). Model predicts a future pine processionary moth risk in Artvin and adjacent regions. Artvin Çoruh Üniversitesi Orman Fakültesi Dergisi, 15(2), 85 - 95. |
| Chicago | İPEKDAL KAHRAMAN,BETON Damla Model predicts a future pine processionary moth risk in Artvin and adjacent regions. Artvin Çoruh Üniversitesi Orman Fakültesi Dergisi 15, no.2 (2014): 85 - 95. |
| MLA | İPEKDAL KAHRAMAN,BETON Damla Model predicts a future pine processionary moth risk in Artvin and adjacent regions. Artvin Çoruh Üniversitesi Orman Fakültesi Dergisi, vol.15, no.2, 2014, ss.85 - 95. |
| AMA | İPEKDAL K,BETON D Model predicts a future pine processionary moth risk in Artvin and adjacent regions. Artvin Çoruh Üniversitesi Orman Fakültesi Dergisi. 2014; 15(2): 85 - 95. |
| Vancouver | İPEKDAL K,BETON D Model predicts a future pine processionary moth risk in Artvin and adjacent regions. Artvin Çoruh Üniversitesi Orman Fakültesi Dergisi. 2014; 15(2): 85 - 95. |
| IEEE | İPEKDAL K,BETON D "Model predicts a future pine processionary moth risk in Artvin and adjacent regions." Artvin Çoruh Üniversitesi Orman Fakültesi Dergisi, 15, ss.85 - 95, 2014. |
| ISNAD | İPEKDAL, KAHRAMAN - BETON, Damla. "Model predicts a future pine processionary moth risk in Artvin and adjacent regions". Artvin Çoruh Üniversitesi Orman Fakültesi Dergisi 15/2 (2014), 85-95. |
