TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİ İÇİN İLERLETİLMİŞ KALMAN FİLTRESİ YAKLAŞIMIYLA NAIRU TAHMİNİ

Yıl: 2014 Cilt: 14 Sayı: 3 Sayfa Aralığı: 63 - 94 Metin Dili: Türkçe İndeks Tarihi: 29-07-2022

TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİ İÇİN İLERLETİLMİŞ KALMAN FİLTRESİ YAKLAŞIMIYLA NAIRU TAHMİNİ

Öz:
Bu çalışmada, Türkiye ekonomisi için NAIRU (enflasyonu hızlandırmayan işsizlik oranı) tahmini yapılmaktadır. Sistem yaklaşımı çerçevesinde Phillips eğrisi denklemi baz alınarak, çıktı açığı ile işsizlik açığı arasında Okun tipi bir ilişki olduğu; NAIRU ve potansiyel üretimin stokastik hareket yasasıyla belirlendiği ve parametrelerin zamanla değiştiği varsayılmaktadır. Ancak, parametrelerin ve durum probleminin eşanlı olarak çözülmesi gerekliliği doğrusal olmama durumu yaratarak, ilerletilmiş Kalman filtresi kullanımını zorunlu kılmaktadır. Tahmin sonuçları, NAIRU serisinin, daha dalgalı bir seyir izlemekle beraber, gerçekleşen işsizlik düzeyiyle uyumlu hareket ettiğini göstermektedir. Bu çerçevede, tahmin edilen NAIRU serisi, kriz dönemlerinde, gerçekleşen işsizlik serisine göre daha sert tepki vermektedir. Türetilmiş tüm serilerin makul olduğu ve ekonomideki önemli dönüm noktalarını yakaladığı görülmektedir. Zamanla değişen katsayılar, işsizlik ve enflasyon arasında istikrarlı olmakla beraber zayıf bir ilişki olduğuna; döviz kuru-enflasyon geçişkenliğinin ise zayıflıyor olmakla beraber anlamlı bulunduğuna işaret etmektedir. Buna ek olarak, parametreler enflasyonda kayda değer oranda katılık olduğunu göstermektedir.
Anahtar Kelime:

Konular: İşletme İktisat

ESTIMATING NAIRU FOR THE TURKISH ECONOMY USING EXTENDED KALMAN FILTER APPROACH

Öz:
This paper estimates NAIRU (Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment) for the Turkish economy by systems approach, which includes an Okun-type relationship between output gap and unemployment gap, a Phillips curve equation, stochastic laws of motion for NAIRU and potential output and time-varying parameters. However, the requirement to simultaneously estimate parameters and to solve the state space problem introduces nonlinearity, which can be handled by Extended Kalman Filter (EKF). Estimation results suggest that NAIRU moves in tandem with the actual unemployment, yet following a more volatile path than the latter. Accordingly, the NAIRU series reacts more sharply to the crises than the actual unemployment. Furthermore, all of the derived series are plausible and capture the significant turning points of the economy. Meanwhile, the time-varying parameters indicate a stable, yet quite a weak link between unemployment and inflation, and a weakening, but significant pass-through to inflation. Moreover, the parameters also imply considerable inertia.
Anahtar Kelime:

Konular: İşletme İktisat
Belge Türü: Makale Makale Türü: Araştırma Makalesi Erişim Türü: Erişime Açık
  • Aguiar, M. and G. Gopinath, 2007, Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle Is the Trend, Journal of Political Economy, 115(1): 69-102.
  • Alp, H. and S. Elekdağ, 2011, The Role of Monetary Policy in Turkey during the Global Financial Crisis, IMF Working Paper No. 11/150.
  • Alp, H., F. Öğünç and Ç. Sarıkaya, 2012, Monetary Policy and Output Gap: Mind the Composition, CBT Research Notes in Economics No. 12/07.
  • Alper, K., H. Kara and M. Yörükoğlu, 2013, Reserve Options Mechanism, Central Bank Review, 13(1):1-14.
  • Altissimo, F., B. Mojon and P. Zaffaroni, 2009, Can aggregation explain the persistence of inflation?, Journal of Monetary Economics, 56(2): 231-241.
  • Atuk, O., F. Öğünç, M.U. Özmen and Ç. Sarıkaya, 2013, Türkiye’de Üretici ve Tüketici Fiyatları Arasındaki İlişki Üzerine Bir Değerlendirme (in Turkish), CBT Research Notes in Economics No. 13/21.
  • Bacchetta, P. and S. Gerlach, 1997, Consumption and Credit Constraints: International Evidence, Journal of Monetary Economics, 40(2): 207-238.
  • Ball, L.M., 2009, Hysteresis in Unemployment: Old and New Evidence, NBER Working Paper No. 14818.
  • Ball, L. and N.G. Mankiw, 2002, The NAIRU in Theory and Practice, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 16(4): 115-136.
  • Bassanini, A. and R. Duval, 2006, The determinants of unemployment across OECD countries: Reassessing the role of policies and institutions, OECD Economic Studies, 2006(1): 7-86.
  • Başçı, E. and H. Kara, 2011, Finansal istikrar ve para politikası (in Turkish), İktisat İşletme ve Finans, 26(302): 9-25.
  • Başçı, E., Ö. Özel and Ç. Sarıkaya, 2007, The monetary transmission mechanism in Turkey: New Developments, CBRT Working Paper No. 07/03.
  • Başer, S., S. Kösem and F. Öğünç, 2012, Türkiye’de Enflasyon: Sektörel ve Uluslararası Bazda Karşılaştırmalı Bir Analiz ve Öne Çıkan Noktalar (in Turkish), CBT Research Notes in Economics No. 12/20.
  • Batini, N. and J.V. Greenslade, 2006, Measuring the UK short-run NAIRU, Oxford Economic Papers, 58(1): 28-49.
  • Baxter, M. and R.G. King, 1999, Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 81(4): 575- 593.
  • Benes, J. and P. N'Diaye, 2004, A Multivariate Filter for Measuring Potential Output and the NAIRU: Application to the Czech Republic, IMF Working Paper No. 04/45.
  • Beveridge, S. and C.R. Nelson, 1981, A new approach to the decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the business cycle, Journal of Monetary Economics, 7(2): 151-173.
  • Bildirici, M.E. 1999, Türkiye Ekonomisi için NAIRU Ölçüm Denemesi (in Turkish), İktisat İşletme ve Finans, 14(157): 65-82.
  • Bildirici, M.E., Ö.Ö. Ersin, C. Türkmen and Y. Yalçınkaya, 2012, The Persistence Effect of Unemployment in Turkey: An Analysis of the 1980-2010 Period, Journal of Business, Economics and Finance, 1(3): 22-32.
  • Blanchard, O. and J. Galí, 2007, Real Wage Rigidities and the New Keynesian Model, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 39(1): 35-65.
  • Blanchard, O.J. and L.H. Summers, 1987a, Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem, NBER Working Paper No. 1950.
  • , 1987b, Hysteresis in unemployment, European Economic Review, 31(1-2): 288-295.
  • , 1987c, Fiscal increasing returns, hysteresis, real wages and unemployment, European Economic Review, 31(3): 543-560.
  • Boone, L., C. Giorno, M. Meacci, D. Rae, P. Richardson and D. Turner, 2001, Estimating the Structural Rate of Unemployment for the OECD Countries, OECD Economic Studies, 2001(2): 171-216.
  • CBRT, 2001, Strengthening the Turkish Economy: Turkey’s Transition Program, available at http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/yeni/duyuru/eko_program/str_econ.pdf.
  • Ceritoğlu, E., H.B. Gürcihan and T. Taşkın, 2012, 2001 ve 2008 Krizleri Sonrası İşsizlik Oranı Gelişmeleri (in Turkish), CBT Research Notes in Economics No. 12/23.
  • Chan, W.L. and F.B. Hsiao, 2011, Implementation of the Rauch-Tung-Striebel Smoother for Sensor Compatibility Correction of a Fixed-Wing Unmanned Air Vehicle, Sensors, 11(4): 3738-3763.
  • Christiano, L.J. and T.J. Fitzgerald, 2003, The Band Pass Filter, International Economic Review, 44(2): 435-465.
  • Chui, C.K. and G. Chen, 1991, Kalman Filtering with Real-Time Applications, Springer Verlag, New York, NY, USA.
  • Clarida, R., J. Galí and M. Gertler, 1999, The science of monetary policy: a New-Keynesian perspective, Journal of Economic Literature, 37(4): 1661-1707.
  • Clark, P.B. and D. Laxton, 1997, Phillips curves, Phillips lines and the unemployment costs of overheating, IMF Working Paper No. 97/17.
  • Cogley, T. and T. Sargent, 2002, Evolving post-World War II U.S. Inflation Dynamics, NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 16, 331-373.
  • , 2005, Drifts and volatilities: Monetary policies and outcomes in the post WWII U.S, Review of Economic Dynamics, 8(2): 262-302.
  • Cross, R., J. Darby and J. Ireland, 1998, Uncertainties Surrounding Natural Rate Estimates in the G7, in R. Neck, C. Richter and P. Mooslechner (eds.), Quantitative Economic Policy, Springer Verlag, Berlin, Germany.
  • Erdoğan-Coşar, E., S. Kösem and Ç. Sarıkaya, 2012, Alternatif Çıktı Açığı Göstergeleri (in Turkish), CBT Research Notes in Economics No. 12/22.
  • Ertuğrul, A. and F. Selçuk, 2001, A brief account of the Turkish economy, 1980-2000, Russian and East European Finance and Trade, 37(6): 6-30.
  • Estrella, A. and F.S. Mishkin, 2000, Rethinking the Role of NAIRU in Monetary Policy: Implications of Model Formulation and Uncertainty, NBER Working Paper No. 6518.
  • Fabiani, S. and R. Mestre, 2000, Alternative measures of the NAIRU in the euro area: estimates and assessment, ECB Working Paper No. 17. , 2004, A system approach for measuring the euro area NAIRU, Empirical Economics, 29(2): 311-341.
  • Fisher, I., 1926, A Statistical Relation between Unemployment and Price Changes, International Labour Review, 13(6): 785-792.
  • Friedman, M., 1968, The role of monetary policy, American Economic Review, 58(1): 1-17. Fuhrer, J.C. and G. Moore, 1995, Inflation Persistence, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110(1): 127-159.
  • Galí, J. and M. Gertler, 1999, Inflation dynamics: a structural econometric analysis, Journal of Monetary Economics, 44(2): 195-222.
  • Gerlach, S. and F. Smets, 1999, Output gaps and monetary policy in the EMU area, European Economic Review, 43(4): 801-812.
  • Gianella, C., I. Koske, E. Rusticelli and O. Chatal, 2008, What Drives the NAIRU? Evidence from a Panel of OECD Countries, OECD Economics Department Working Paper No. 649.
  • Grillenzoni, C., 1993, ARIMA processes with ARIMA parameters, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 11(2): 235-250.
  • Gómez, V. and A. Maravall, 1996, Programs TRAMO and SEATS. Instruction for User, Banco de España Working Paper No. 9628.
  • Gómez, J. and J.M. Julio, 2000, An Estimation of the Nonlinear Phillips Curve in Colombia, Banco de la República de Colombia, Borradores de Economia No. 160.
  • Gordon, R.J., 1991, The Phillips Curve Now and Then, NBER Working Paper No. 3393.
  • , 1997, The Time-Varying NAIRU and Its Implications for Economic Policy, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 11(1): 11-32.
  • Greenslade, J.V., R.G. Pierse and J. Saleheen, 2003, A Kalman filter approach to estimating the UK NAIRU, Bank of England Working Paper No. 179.
  • Hamilton, J.D., 1994a, Time Series Analysis, Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ, USA.
  • , 1994b, State Space Models, in R.F. Engle and D.L. McFadden (eds.), Handbook of Econometrics, North Holland, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
  • Harvey, A.C., 1990, Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
  • Hodrick, R.J. and E.C. Prescott, 1997, Postwar U.S. business cycles: an empirical investigation, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 29(1): 1-16.
  • http://evds.tcmb.gov.tr.
  • http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/yeni/banka/law.pdf.
  • Kalman, R.E., 1960, A new approach to linear filtering and prediction theory, Journal of Basic Engineering, Transactions ASME, 82(Series D): 35-45.
  • Kalman, R.E. and R.S. Bucy, 1961, New results in linear filtering and prediction theory, Journal of Basic Engineering, Transactions ASME, 83(Series D): 95-108.
  • Kara, H., 2008, Turkish Experience with Implicit Inflation Targeting, Central Bank Review, 8(1): 1-16.
  • , 2013, Monetary Policy after the Global Crisis, Atlantic Economic Journal, 41(1): 51-73.
  • Kara, H. and F. Öğünç, 2005, Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Turkey: It is Slow, but is it Really Low?, CBRT Working Paper No. 05/10.
  • , 2008, Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Pass-Through: The Turkish Experience, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 44(6): 52-66.
  • Kara, H., F. Öğünç, Ü. Özlale and Ç. Sarıkaya, 2007, Estimating the Output Gap in a Changing Economy, Southern Economic Journal, 74(1): 269-289.
  • Kara, H., H. Küçük-Tuğer, Ü. Özlale, B. Tuğer and E.M. Yücel, 2007, Exchange Rate Regimes And Pass-Through: Evidence From The Turkish Economy, Contemporary Economic Policy, 25(2): 206-225.
  • Karahan, Ö., O. Çolak and Ö.F. Bölükbaşı, 2012, Tradeoff between Inflation and Unemployment in Turkey, The Empirical Economics Letters, 11(9): 973-980.
  • Karasoy, A., K. Kunter and V. Us, 2005, Monetary transmission mechanism in Turkey under free float using a small-scale macroeconomic model, Economic Modelling, 22(6): 1064- 1073.
  • Kaya, Y.T. and Z.A. Yavan, 2007, Türkiye Ekonomisi Potansiyel Çıktı Tahmininde Üretim Fonksiyonu Yaklaşımı ve Mevcut İstatistiksel Yaklaşımlar ile Karşılaştırılması (in Turkish), Economic Research Forum Research Paper Series No. 07-03.
  • Kibritçioğlu, A., L. Rittenberg and F. Selçuk, 2002, Inflation and Disinflation in Turkey, Ashgate Publishing, Aldershot, UK and Burlington, VT, USA.
  • King, R.G., J.H. Stock and M.W. Watson, 1995, Temporal instability of the unemploymentinflation relationship, Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, MayJune: 2-12.
  • Kuştepeli, Y., 2005, A Comprehensive Short-Run Analysis of a (possible) Turkish Phillips Curve, Applied Economics, 37(5): 581-591.
  • Kuttner, K.N., 1994, Estimating Potential Output as a Latent Variable, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 12(3): 361-368.
  • Küçüksaraç, D. and Ö. Özel, 2012, Rezerv Opsiyonu Mekanizması ve Optimal Rezerv Opsiyonu Katsayılarının Hesaplanması (in Turkish), CBRT Working Paper No. 12/32.
  • Laubach, T., 2001, Measuring the NAIRU: evidence from seven economies, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 83(2): 218-231.
  • Laxton, D. and R. Tetlow, 1992, A Simple Multivariate Filter for the Measurement of Potential Output, Bank of Canada Technical Report No. 59.
  • Layard, R., S. Nickell and R. Jackman, 1991, Unemployment: Macroeconomic performance and the labour market, Oxford University Press, New York, NY, USA.
  • Lerner, A., 1951, The Economics of Employment, McGraw Hill, New York, NY, USA.
  • Lubik, T. and S. Slivinski, 2010, Is the Output Gap a Faulty Gauge for Monetary Policy?, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Brief No. 2010-01.
  • Lucas, R.E., 1972, Expectations and the Neutrality of Money, Journal of Economic Theory, 4(2): 103-24.
  • McKiernan, B. 1996, Consumption and the Credit Market, Economics Letters, 51(1): 83-88.
  • Metin, K., 1998, The relationship between inflation and the budget deficit in Turkey, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 16(4): 412-422.
  • Modigliani, F. and L. Papademos, 1975, Targets for Monetary Policy in the Coming Year, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 6(1): 141-166.
  • Neumeyer, P. and F. Perri, 2005, Business cycles in emerging economies: the role of interest rates, Journal of Monetary Economics, 52(2): 345-380.
  • Nickell, S., 1997, Unemployment and Labor Market Rigidities: Europe versus North America, The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 11(3): 55-73.
  • Öğünç, F. and Ç. Sarıkaya, 2011, Görünmez Ama Hissedilmez Değil: Türkiye'de Çıktı Açığı (in Turkish), Central Bank Review, 11(2): 15-28.
  • Özbek, L., Ü. Özlale and F. Öztürk, 2003, Employing Extended Kalman Filter in a Simple Macroeconomic Model, Central Bank Review, 3(1): 53-65.
  • Özbek, L. and Ü. Özlale, 2005, Employing the extended Kalman filter in measuring the output gap, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 29(9): 1611-22.
  • Özçiçek, Ö., 2011, Türkiye'de Sektörel Enflasyon Direnci (in Turkish), Anadolu University Journal of Social Sciences, 11(1): 57-68.
  • Phelps, E.S., 1967, Phillips Curves, Expectations of Inflation, and Optimal Unemployment over Time, Economica, 34(135): 254-81.
  • Phillips, A.W., 1958, The Relation Between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861-957, Economica, 25(100): 283-299.
  • Primiceri, G.E., 2005, Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy, Review of Economic Studies, 72(3): 821-852.
  • Richardson, P., L. Boone, C. Giorno, M. Meacci, D. Rae and D. Turner, 2000, The Concept, Policy Use and Measurement of Structural Unemployment: Estimating a Time Varying NAIRU Across 21 OECD Countries, OECD Economics Department Working Paper No. 250.
  • Samuelson, P.A. and R.M. Solow, 1960, Analytical Aspects of Anti-inflation Policy, American Economic Review, 50(2): 177-194.
  • Staiger, D., J.H. Stock and M.W. Watson, 1997a, How Precise are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment? in C.D. Romer and D.H. Romer (eds.), Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, IL, USA.
  • , 1997b, The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 11(1): 33-49.
  • Stiglitz, J., 1997, Reflections on the Natural Rate Hypothesis, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 11(1): 3-10.
  • Stock, J.H. and M.W. Watson, 1999, Business cycle fluctuations in us macroeconomic time series, in J.B. Taylor and M. Woodford (eds), Handbook of Macroeconomics, North Holland, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
  • Şıklar, İ., A.A. Kaya and S. Gerek, 1999, NAIRU: Teori, Eleştiri ve Türkiye Uygulaması (in Turkish), Anadolu Üniversitesi Yayın No. 1090.
  • Temurlenk, M.S. and S. Başar, 2012, Türkiye için Enflasyonu Hızlandırmayan İşsizlik Oranı (NAIRU) Tahmini (in Turkish), Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 2(1): 71-83.
  • Tillmann, P., 2012, Inflation Targeting, Aggregation, and Inflation Persistence: Evidence from Korean CPI Components, Seoul Journal of Economics, 25(3): 233-253.
  • Tunay, B., 2009, Türkiye’de Enflasyon Sürekliliğinin ABKBHO Modelleriyle Analizi (in Turkish), Öneri, 8(31): 249-257.
  • Uysal, D. and S. Erdoğan, 2003, Enflasyon ve İşsizlik Oranı Arasındaki İlişki ve Türkiye Örneği (1980-2002) (in Turkish), SÜ İİBF Sosyal ve Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi, 3(6): 35-48.
  • Weiner, S.E., 1993, New Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment, Economic Review, 78(4): 53-69.
  • Yavan, A.Z., 1997, Türkiye’de İşsizlik: Yapısal ve Yapısal Olmayan Özellikleri (in Turkish), TÜSİAD Working Paper Series No. T/97.
  • Yiğit, Ö. and A. Gökçe, 2012, Türkiye Ekonomisi için NAIRU Tahmini (in Turkish), Ekonomik Yaklaşım, 23(83): 69-91.
APA Us V (2014). TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİ İÇİN İLERLETİLMİŞ KALMAN FİLTRESİ YAKLAŞIMIYLA NAIRU TAHMİNİ. , 63 - 94.
Chicago Us Vuslat TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİ İÇİN İLERLETİLMİŞ KALMAN FİLTRESİ YAKLAŞIMIYLA NAIRU TAHMİNİ. (2014): 63 - 94.
MLA Us Vuslat TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİ İÇİN İLERLETİLMİŞ KALMAN FİLTRESİ YAKLAŞIMIYLA NAIRU TAHMİNİ. , 2014, ss.63 - 94.
AMA Us V TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİ İÇİN İLERLETİLMİŞ KALMAN FİLTRESİ YAKLAŞIMIYLA NAIRU TAHMİNİ. . 2014; 63 - 94.
Vancouver Us V TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİ İÇİN İLERLETİLMİŞ KALMAN FİLTRESİ YAKLAŞIMIYLA NAIRU TAHMİNİ. . 2014; 63 - 94.
IEEE Us V "TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİ İÇİN İLERLETİLMİŞ KALMAN FİLTRESİ YAKLAŞIMIYLA NAIRU TAHMİNİ." , ss.63 - 94, 2014.
ISNAD Us, Vuslat. "TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİ İÇİN İLERLETİLMİŞ KALMAN FİLTRESİ YAKLAŞIMIYLA NAIRU TAHMİNİ". (2014), 63-94.
APA Us V (2014). TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİ İÇİN İLERLETİLMİŞ KALMAN FİLTRESİ YAKLAŞIMIYLA NAIRU TAHMİNİ. Central Bank Review, 14(3), 63 - 94.
Chicago Us Vuslat TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİ İÇİN İLERLETİLMİŞ KALMAN FİLTRESİ YAKLAŞIMIYLA NAIRU TAHMİNİ. Central Bank Review 14, no.3 (2014): 63 - 94.
MLA Us Vuslat TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİ İÇİN İLERLETİLMİŞ KALMAN FİLTRESİ YAKLAŞIMIYLA NAIRU TAHMİNİ. Central Bank Review, vol.14, no.3, 2014, ss.63 - 94.
AMA Us V TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİ İÇİN İLERLETİLMİŞ KALMAN FİLTRESİ YAKLAŞIMIYLA NAIRU TAHMİNİ. Central Bank Review. 2014; 14(3): 63 - 94.
Vancouver Us V TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİ İÇİN İLERLETİLMİŞ KALMAN FİLTRESİ YAKLAŞIMIYLA NAIRU TAHMİNİ. Central Bank Review. 2014; 14(3): 63 - 94.
IEEE Us V "TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİ İÇİN İLERLETİLMİŞ KALMAN FİLTRESİ YAKLAŞIMIYLA NAIRU TAHMİNİ." Central Bank Review, 14, ss.63 - 94, 2014.
ISNAD Us, Vuslat. "TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİ İÇİN İLERLETİLMİŞ KALMAN FİLTRESİ YAKLAŞIMIYLA NAIRU TAHMİNİ". Central Bank Review 14/3 (2014), 63-94.