THE INFLATION DYNAMICS OF THE TURKISH ECONOMY IN 1990-2011 PERIOD
Yıl: 2013 Cilt: 5 Sayı: 9 Sayfa Aralığı: 1 - 16 Metin Dili: Türkçe İndeks Tarihi: 29-07-2022
THE INFLATION DYNAMICS OF THE TURKISH ECONOMY IN 1990-2011 PERIOD
Öz: Türkiye, 2001 yılındaki ekonomik kriz sonrası uygulamış olduğu ekonomik politikalar sonucunda 1975-2001 yılları arasında kronik bir sorun haline gelmiş olan enflasyo noranını 2004 yılında tek haneli rakamlara düşürmeyi başarabilmiştir. Bu çalışmada, Ocak 1990 - Aralık 2011 dönemi Türkiye ekonomisindeki enflasyon dinamikleri, uzun ve kısa dönemle riçin Johansen Cointegration Test ve Vector Error Correction modeli (VEC) kullanılarak analiz edilmektedir. Analiz sonuçları ilgili dönemde Türkiye'deki enflasyonun temel olarak para arzı, ekonomik büyüme, nominal döviz kuru, dolarizasyon ve reel ücretlerdeki değişikliklerden kaynaklandığını ortaya koymaktadır.
Anahtar Kelime: Konular:
TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİNDE 1990 - 2011 DÖNEMİNDE ENFLASYON DİNAMİKLERİ
Öz: In 2004, Turkey managed to reduce the chronic high inflation rates that characterized its economy over the period 1975-2001 to single digits, thanks to economic policies implemented in the aftermath of the 2001 financial crisis. This paper analyzes inflation dynamics in the Turkish economy both in the short- and the long-run, over the period January 1990 to December 2011 by using the Johansen Cointegration Test and the Vector Error Correction model (VEC). Empirical results show that the inflation rates in Turkey are mainly related to changes in money supply, economic growth, nominal exchange rates, dollarization and real wages
Anahtar Kelime: Konular:
Belge Türü: Makale Makale Türü: Araştırma Makalesi Erişim Türü: Erişime Açık
- AKÇAY, O. Cevdet, ALPER, C. Emre and ÖZMUCUR, Süleyman (2002),“Budget Deficit, Inflation, and Debt Sustainability: Evidence from Turkey, 1970-2000”,in KİBRİTÇİOĞLU, Aykut, RITTENBERG, Libby and SELÇUK, Faruk (eds.), Inflation and Disinflation in-Turkey, Hampshire:Ashgate Publishing Limited, p.p. 77-96.
- ARBATLI, Elif C. (2003),“Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Turkey: Looking for Asymmetries”,Central Bank Review, vol. 3-2, p.p. 85-124.
- ARI, Ali (2012),“Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises: The Turkish Case”, Economic Systems, vol. 36-3, p.p. 391-410.
- AYSOY, Cem and KIPICI, Ahmet N. (2005),“A Quarterly Macroeconometric Model of the Turkish Economy”,Central Bank Review, vol. 5-2, p.p. 39-71.
- BAHMANI-OSKOOEE, Mohsenand DOMAÇ, İlker (2003), “On the Link between Dollarisation and Inflation: Evidence fromTurkey”, Comparative Economic Studies, 45, p.p. 306–328.
- BAŞKAYA, Y. Soner, GÜLŞEN, Eda and KARA A. Hakan (2012),“Inflation Expectations and Central Bank Communication in Turkey”,Central Bank Review, vol. 12-2, p.p. 1-10.
- DİBOOĞLU, Sel and KİBRİTÇİOĞLU, Aykut (2001),“Inflation, Output and Stabilization in a High Inflation Economy: Turkey, 1980-2000”,Working Paper,no. 01-0112, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, College of Commerce and Business Administration, Office of Research. DİBOOĞLU, Sel and KİBRİTÇİOĞLU, Aykut(2004),“Inflation, Output Growth and Stabilization in Turkey, 1980-2002”,Journal of Economics and Business, vol. 56-1, p.p. 43-61.
- DICKEY, David A. and FULLER, Wayne A. (1979),“Distribution of the Estimates for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”,Journal of the American Statistical Association,vol. 74, no. 366, p.p. 427-431.
- DOMAÇ, İlker (2003),“Explaining and Forecasting Inflation in Turkey”,Working Paper,no. 03- 06, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, Research and Monetary Policy Department, p.p.1- 41.
- ERLAT, Haluk (2002),“Long Memory in Turkish Inflation Rate”, in KİBRİTÇİOĞLU, Aykut, RITTENBERG, Libby and SELÇUK, Faruk (eds.), Inflation and Disinflation in-Turkey, Hampshire:Ashgate Publishing Limited, p.p. 97-122.
- FISHER, Irving (1911),“The Equation of Exchange, 1896-1910”, American Economic Review,vol. 1-2, p.p. 296-305.
- FRIEDMAN, Milton and SCHWARTZ, Anna J. (1963),A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960, Princeton: Princeton University Press.
- HARRIS, Richard and SOLLIS, Robert (2003),Applied Time Series Modeling and Forecasting,West Sussex: Wiley.
- JOHANSEN, Sorenand JUSELIUS, Katarina (1990),“Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration - With Applications to the Demand for Money”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, vol. 52-2, p.p. 169-210.
- JOHANSEN, Soren (1991),“Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models”,Econometrica, vol. 59-6, p.p. 1551-1580.
- KARACAL, Müge and BAHMANI-OSKOOEE, Mohsen (2008),“Inflation and Dollarization in Turkey”, inWarsaw International Economic Meeting,Warsaw: Warsaw University, Department of Economics.
- KEYNES, John Maynard (1936),The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money, London: Macmillan Publication.
- KIA, Amir (2010),“Money, Deficits, Debts and Inflation in Emerging Countries: Evidence from Turkey”,Global Review of Accounting and Finance, vol. 1-1, p.p. 136-151.
- KİBRİTÇİOĞLU, Aykut(2002),“Causes of Inflation in Turkey: A Literature Survey with Special Reference to Theories of Inflation”,in KİBRİTÇİOĞLU, Aykut, RITTENBERG, Libby and SELÇUK, Faruk (eds.), Inflation and Disinflation in-Turkey, Hampshire:Ashgate Publishing Limited, p.p. 43-76.
- KİBRİTÇİOĞLU, Aykut (2004),“A Short Review of the Long History of Turkish High Inflation”,in SHILPA, M. Rao (ed.), Inflation: Concepts and Experiences, Hyderabad: The ICFAI University Press, p.p. 84-109.
- ÖZDEMİR, K. Azim and SAYGILI, Mesut (2008),“Monetary Pressures and Inflation Dynamics in Turkey: Evidence from P-Star Model”,Working Paper,no: 08-08,Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, Research and Monetary Policy Department.
- PONGSAPARN, Runchana (2002),“Inflation Dynamics and Reaction Function in High-Inflation Environment: An Implication for Turkey”,Working Paper, no. 10,Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, Research and Monetary Policy Department.
- TEKİN-KORU, Ayça and ÖZMEN, Erdal (2003),“Budget Deficits, Money Growth and Inflation: the Turkish Evidence”,Applied Economics, vol. 35-5, p.p. 591-596.
- TOTONCHI, Jalil (2011),“Macroeconomic Theories of Inflation”, in 2011 International Conference on Economics and Finance Research, IPEDR vol. 4. Singapore: IACSIT Press.
- US, Vuslat (2004),“Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Policy Strategy: Some Prospects for the Turkish Economy”,Journal of Policy Modeling, 26, p.p. 1003-1013.
- YILMAZ, Ahmet and ARI, Ali (2013), “Gevşek Parasal Göstergeler ve Enflasyon Hedeflemesi Stratejisi Altında Enflasyonla Mücadele: 2001-2011 Türkiye Deneyimi”, Marmara İİBDergisi, forthcoming.
- YILMAZ, Ensar (2010),“Inflation and Output in the Long and Short Run in Turkey”, Empirica,37, p.p. 253-269.
| APA | ARI A, yılmaz a, Cergibozan R, Ozcan Y (2013). THE INFLATION DYNAMICS OF THE TURKISH ECONOMY IN 1990-2011 PERIOD. , 1 - 16. |
| Chicago | ARI Ali,yılmaz ahmet,Cergibozan Raif,Ozcan Yunus THE INFLATION DYNAMICS OF THE TURKISH ECONOMY IN 1990-2011 PERIOD. (2013): 1 - 16. |
| MLA | ARI Ali,yılmaz ahmet,Cergibozan Raif,Ozcan Yunus THE INFLATION DYNAMICS OF THE TURKISH ECONOMY IN 1990-2011 PERIOD. , 2013, ss.1 - 16. |
| AMA | ARI A,yılmaz a,Cergibozan R,Ozcan Y THE INFLATION DYNAMICS OF THE TURKISH ECONOMY IN 1990-2011 PERIOD. . 2013; 1 - 16. |
| Vancouver | ARI A,yılmaz a,Cergibozan R,Ozcan Y THE INFLATION DYNAMICS OF THE TURKISH ECONOMY IN 1990-2011 PERIOD. . 2013; 1 - 16. |
| IEEE | ARI A,yılmaz a,Cergibozan R,Ozcan Y "THE INFLATION DYNAMICS OF THE TURKISH ECONOMY IN 1990-2011 PERIOD." , ss.1 - 16, 2013. |
| ISNAD | ARI, Ali vd. "THE INFLATION DYNAMICS OF THE TURKISH ECONOMY IN 1990-2011 PERIOD". (2013), 1-16. |
| APA | ARI A, yılmaz a, Cergibozan R, Ozcan Y (2013). THE INFLATION DYNAMICS OF THE TURKISH ECONOMY IN 1990-2011 PERIOD. Finansal Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi, 5(9), 1 - 16. |
| Chicago | ARI Ali,yılmaz ahmet,Cergibozan Raif,Ozcan Yunus THE INFLATION DYNAMICS OF THE TURKISH ECONOMY IN 1990-2011 PERIOD. Finansal Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi 5, no.9 (2013): 1 - 16. |
| MLA | ARI Ali,yılmaz ahmet,Cergibozan Raif,Ozcan Yunus THE INFLATION DYNAMICS OF THE TURKISH ECONOMY IN 1990-2011 PERIOD. Finansal Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi, vol.5, no.9, 2013, ss.1 - 16. |
| AMA | ARI A,yılmaz a,Cergibozan R,Ozcan Y THE INFLATION DYNAMICS OF THE TURKISH ECONOMY IN 1990-2011 PERIOD. Finansal Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi. 2013; 5(9): 1 - 16. |
| Vancouver | ARI A,yılmaz a,Cergibozan R,Ozcan Y THE INFLATION DYNAMICS OF THE TURKISH ECONOMY IN 1990-2011 PERIOD. Finansal Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi. 2013; 5(9): 1 - 16. |
| IEEE | ARI A,yılmaz a,Cergibozan R,Ozcan Y "THE INFLATION DYNAMICS OF THE TURKISH ECONOMY IN 1990-2011 PERIOD." Finansal Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi, 5, ss.1 - 16, 2013. |
| ISNAD | ARI, Ali vd. "THE INFLATION DYNAMICS OF THE TURKISH ECONOMY IN 1990-2011 PERIOD". Finansal Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi 5/9 (2013), 1-16. |
