PETROL FİYATLARININ DIŞ TİCARET AÇIĞI ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Tayfur BAYAT, (Yrd. Doç. Dr., İnönü Üniversitesi, İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi, İktisat Bölümü.)
Ahmet ŞAHBAZ, (Yrd. Doç. Dr., Gaziantep Üniversitesi, İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi, İktisat Bölümü.)
Taner AKÇACI (Yrd. Doç. Dr., Kilis 7 Aralık Üniversitesi, İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi, İktisat Bölümü.)
Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi
13 0
Yıl: 2013 Cilt: 0 Sayı: 42 Sayfa Aralığı: 67 - 90 Metin Dili: Türkçe İndeks Tarihi: 29-07-2022

PETROL FİYATLARININ DIŞ TİCARET AÇIĞI ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Öz:
Bu çalışmada Türkiye'nin 1992:01-2012:04 dönemine ait aylık veriler kullanılarak reel petrol fiyatları ile dış ticaret dengesi arasındaki ilişki, doğrusal olmayan eşbütünleşme, doğrusal olmayan ve frekans alanı Granger tipi nedensellik analizleri kullanılarak incelenmiştir. Analizler sonucunda reel petrol fiyatından dış ticaret açığına tek yönlü nedenselliğin olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Fakat nedensellik ilişkisi sadece orta vadede geçerlidir. Buna göre Türkiye'de orta vadede petrol fiyatlarındaki oynaklıklar dış ticaret açıklarının oluşmasında etkili iken, uzun vadede dış ticaret açıkları üzerindeki etkisi kaybolmaktadır.
Anahtar Kelime:

Konular: İşletme İktisat Uluslararası İlişkiler

THE EFFECT OF OIL PRICES ON THE TRADE DEFICIT: THE CASE OF TURKEY

Öz:
In this study, we investigate the relationship between real oil price and foreign trade deficit in Turkey by using monthly data belonging 1992M1-2012M4 period. In this regard, we employ nonlinear cointegration, nonlinear causality and frequency domain Granger type causality analysis methods. Empirical findings imply that there is a uni-directional nonlinear causality running from real oil price to foreign trade balance. But the causation linkage exists on the medium-term. In the light of the findings, while the volatility in oil price affects foreign trade balance of Turkey, the effect disappears on the long run.
Anahtar Kelime:

Konular: İşletme İktisat Uluslararası İlişkiler
Belge Türü: Makale Makale Türü: Araştırma Makalesi Erişim Türü: Erişime Açık
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APA bayat t, ŞAHBAZ A, AKÇACI T (2013). PETROL FİYATLARININ DIŞ TİCARET AÇIĞI ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ. , 67 - 90.
Chicago bayat tayfur,ŞAHBAZ AHMET,AKÇACI TANER PETROL FİYATLARININ DIŞ TİCARET AÇIĞI ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ. (2013): 67 - 90.
MLA bayat tayfur,ŞAHBAZ AHMET,AKÇACI TANER PETROL FİYATLARININ DIŞ TİCARET AÇIĞI ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ. , 2013, ss.67 - 90.
AMA bayat t,ŞAHBAZ A,AKÇACI T PETROL FİYATLARININ DIŞ TİCARET AÇIĞI ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ. . 2013; 67 - 90.
Vancouver bayat t,ŞAHBAZ A,AKÇACI T PETROL FİYATLARININ DIŞ TİCARET AÇIĞI ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ. . 2013; 67 - 90.
IEEE bayat t,ŞAHBAZ A,AKÇACI T "PETROL FİYATLARININ DIŞ TİCARET AÇIĞI ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ." , ss.67 - 90, 2013.
ISNAD bayat, tayfur vd. "PETROL FİYATLARININ DIŞ TİCARET AÇIĞI ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ". (2013), 67-90.
APA bayat t, ŞAHBAZ A, AKÇACI T (2013). PETROL FİYATLARININ DIŞ TİCARET AÇIĞI ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 0(42), 67 - 90.
Chicago bayat tayfur,ŞAHBAZ AHMET,AKÇACI TANER PETROL FİYATLARININ DIŞ TİCARET AÇIĞI ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 0, no.42 (2013): 67 - 90.
MLA bayat tayfur,ŞAHBAZ AHMET,AKÇACI TANER PETROL FİYATLARININ DIŞ TİCARET AÇIĞI ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, vol.0, no.42, 2013, ss.67 - 90.
AMA bayat t,ŞAHBAZ A,AKÇACI T PETROL FİYATLARININ DIŞ TİCARET AÇIĞI ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi. 2013; 0(42): 67 - 90.
Vancouver bayat t,ŞAHBAZ A,AKÇACI T PETROL FİYATLARININ DIŞ TİCARET AÇIĞI ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi. 2013; 0(42): 67 - 90.
IEEE bayat t,ŞAHBAZ A,AKÇACI T "PETROL FİYATLARININ DIŞ TİCARET AÇIĞI ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ." Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 0, ss.67 - 90, 2013.
ISNAD bayat, tayfur vd. "PETROL FİYATLARININ DIŞ TİCARET AÇIĞI ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ". Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 42 (2013), 67-90.
Sayfa Oluşturulma Tarihi
17-04-2024 8:29

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