BALKAN ÜLKELERİNDE İŞSİZLİK HİSTERİSİ VE DOĞAL ORAN HİPOTEZİNİN GEÇERLİLİĞİ: AMPİRİK BİR DEĞERLENDİRME
Yıl: 2017 Cilt: 8 Sayı: 16 Sayfa Aralığı: 295 - 317 Metin Dili: Türkçe İndeks Tarihi: 29-07-2022
BALKAN ÜLKELERİNDE İŞSİZLİK HİSTERİSİ VE DOĞAL ORAN HİPOTEZİNİN GEÇERLİLİĞİ: AMPİRİK BİR DEĞERLENDİRME
Öz: Çalışma, 7 Balkan ülkesinde doğal oran hipotezi ve işsizlik histerisi yaklaşımlarının geçerliliğini 2004:12016:1 döneminde çeyreklik verilerle ikinci nesil panel birim kök testleri ile test etmektedir. Histerisi etkisi işsizlik serisinin birim kök içermesiyle belirlenirken, doğal oran hipotezinin ise serinin durağan olması ile açıklanmaktadır. Çalışmanın analizinde kullanılan yöntem, Breuer vd. (2002) tarafından kullanılan SURADF panel birim kök testi; Pesaran (2007) tarafından geliştirilen CADF panel birim kök testi ve son olarak yapısal kırılmalara izin veren Carrion-i-Silvestre vd. (2005) tarafından geliştirilen panel KPSS (PANKPSS) testi kullanılmıştır. Çalışmadan elde edilen bulgular, işsizlik serilerinin SURADF, CADF ve PANKPSS test sonuçlarına göre incelenen tüm ülkelerde durağan olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu sonuçlar, Balkan ülkelerinde geçici şokların işsizlik oranları üzerinde kalıcı etkilere yol açmadığını ve doğal oran hipotezinin geçerli olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır
Anahtar Kelime: Konular:
THE VALIDITY OF UNEMPLOYMENT HYSTERESIS AND NATURAL RATE HYPOTHESIS IN BALKAN COUNTRIES: AN EMPIRICAL EVALUATION
Öz: the validity of the natural rate hypothesis and unemployment hysteresis approaches in the seven Balkan countries over the period 2004:1-2016:1 with quarterly datasets using second generation panel unit root tests. The hysteresis hypothesis indicates that the unemployment series follow unit root process, the natural rate hypothesis implies unemployment series is stationary. The methods which are used the analysis of this paper are SURADF panel unit root test by used Breuer et al. (2002); CADF panel unit root test developed by Pesaran (2007); panel KPSS unit root test that allows for structural breaks developed by Carrion-i Silvestre et al. (2005). The findings obtained from our paper display that the unemployment series are stationary in all countries for SURADF, CADF and PANKPSS test results. These results reveal that the transitory shocks in the Balkan countries do not seem to lead to the permanent effects on the unemployment rates and they show that the natural rate of unemployment hypothesis appears to be valid in Balkan countries
Anahtar Kelime: Konular:
Belge Türü: Makale Makale Türü: Araştırma Makalesi Erişim Türü: Erişime Açık
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APA | KOÇBULUT O, BOLAT S (2017). BALKAN ÜLKELERİNDE İŞSİZLİK HİSTERİSİ VE DOĞAL ORAN HİPOTEZİNİN GEÇERLİLİĞİ: AMPİRİK BİR DEĞERLENDİRME. , 295 - 317. |
Chicago | KOÇBULUT OZGÜR,BOLAT SÜLEYMAN BALKAN ÜLKELERİNDE İŞSİZLİK HİSTERİSİ VE DOĞAL ORAN HİPOTEZİNİN GEÇERLİLİĞİ: AMPİRİK BİR DEĞERLENDİRME. (2017): 295 - 317. |
MLA | KOÇBULUT OZGÜR,BOLAT SÜLEYMAN BALKAN ÜLKELERİNDE İŞSİZLİK HİSTERİSİ VE DOĞAL ORAN HİPOTEZİNİN GEÇERLİLİĞİ: AMPİRİK BİR DEĞERLENDİRME. , 2017, ss.295 - 317. |
AMA | KOÇBULUT O,BOLAT S BALKAN ÜLKELERİNDE İŞSİZLİK HİSTERİSİ VE DOĞAL ORAN HİPOTEZİNİN GEÇERLİLİĞİ: AMPİRİK BİR DEĞERLENDİRME. . 2017; 295 - 317. |
Vancouver | KOÇBULUT O,BOLAT S BALKAN ÜLKELERİNDE İŞSİZLİK HİSTERİSİ VE DOĞAL ORAN HİPOTEZİNİN GEÇERLİLİĞİ: AMPİRİK BİR DEĞERLENDİRME. . 2017; 295 - 317. |
IEEE | KOÇBULUT O,BOLAT S "BALKAN ÜLKELERİNDE İŞSİZLİK HİSTERİSİ VE DOĞAL ORAN HİPOTEZİNİN GEÇERLİLİĞİ: AMPİRİK BİR DEĞERLENDİRME." , ss.295 - 317, 2017. |
ISNAD | KOÇBULUT, OZGÜR - BOLAT, SÜLEYMAN. "BALKAN ÜLKELERİNDE İŞSİZLİK HİSTERİSİ VE DOĞAL ORAN HİPOTEZİNİN GEÇERLİLİĞİ: AMPİRİK BİR DEĞERLENDİRME". (2017), 295-317. |
APA | KOÇBULUT O, BOLAT S (2017). BALKAN ÜLKELERİNDE İŞSİZLİK HİSTERİSİ VE DOĞAL ORAN HİPOTEZİNİN GEÇERLİLİĞİ: AMPİRİK BİR DEĞERLENDİRME. KAFKAS ÜNİVERSİTESİ İKTİSADİ ve İDARİ BİLİMLER FAKÜLTESİ DERGİSİ , 8(16), 295 - 317. |
Chicago | KOÇBULUT OZGÜR,BOLAT SÜLEYMAN BALKAN ÜLKELERİNDE İŞSİZLİK HİSTERİSİ VE DOĞAL ORAN HİPOTEZİNİN GEÇERLİLİĞİ: AMPİRİK BİR DEĞERLENDİRME. KAFKAS ÜNİVERSİTESİ İKTİSADİ ve İDARİ BİLİMLER FAKÜLTESİ DERGİSİ 8, no.16 (2017): 295 - 317. |
MLA | KOÇBULUT OZGÜR,BOLAT SÜLEYMAN BALKAN ÜLKELERİNDE İŞSİZLİK HİSTERİSİ VE DOĞAL ORAN HİPOTEZİNİN GEÇERLİLİĞİ: AMPİRİK BİR DEĞERLENDİRME. KAFKAS ÜNİVERSİTESİ İKTİSADİ ve İDARİ BİLİMLER FAKÜLTESİ DERGİSİ , vol.8, no.16, 2017, ss.295 - 317. |
AMA | KOÇBULUT O,BOLAT S BALKAN ÜLKELERİNDE İŞSİZLİK HİSTERİSİ VE DOĞAL ORAN HİPOTEZİNİN GEÇERLİLİĞİ: AMPİRİK BİR DEĞERLENDİRME. KAFKAS ÜNİVERSİTESİ İKTİSADİ ve İDARİ BİLİMLER FAKÜLTESİ DERGİSİ . 2017; 8(16): 295 - 317. |
Vancouver | KOÇBULUT O,BOLAT S BALKAN ÜLKELERİNDE İŞSİZLİK HİSTERİSİ VE DOĞAL ORAN HİPOTEZİNİN GEÇERLİLİĞİ: AMPİRİK BİR DEĞERLENDİRME. KAFKAS ÜNİVERSİTESİ İKTİSADİ ve İDARİ BİLİMLER FAKÜLTESİ DERGİSİ . 2017; 8(16): 295 - 317. |
IEEE | KOÇBULUT O,BOLAT S "BALKAN ÜLKELERİNDE İŞSİZLİK HİSTERİSİ VE DOĞAL ORAN HİPOTEZİNİN GEÇERLİLİĞİ: AMPİRİK BİR DEĞERLENDİRME." KAFKAS ÜNİVERSİTESİ İKTİSADİ ve İDARİ BİLİMLER FAKÜLTESİ DERGİSİ , 8, ss.295 - 317, 2017. |
ISNAD | KOÇBULUT, OZGÜR - BOLAT, SÜLEYMAN. "BALKAN ÜLKELERİNDE İŞSİZLİK HİSTERİSİ VE DOĞAL ORAN HİPOTEZİNİN GEÇERLİLİĞİ: AMPİRİK BİR DEĞERLENDİRME". KAFKAS ÜNİVERSİTESİ İKTİSADİ ve İDARİ BİLİMLER FAKÜLTESİ DERGİSİ 8/16 (2017), 295-317. |