Causality Among Oil Prices, GDP and Exchange Rate: Evidence from Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan

Dikkaya, Mehmet; Doyar, Bayram Veli

Causality Among Oil Prices, GDP and Exchange Rate: Evidence from Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan

Mehmet DİKKAYA, (Kırıkkale Üniversitesi, Ekonomi Bölümü - Kırıkkale/Türkiye)

Bayram Veli DOYAR (Kırıkkale Üniversitesi, Ekonomi Bölümü - Kırıkkale/Türkiye)

Bilig / Türk Dünyası Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi

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Yıl: 2017 Cilt: 0 Sayı: 83 Sayfa Aralığı: 79 - 98 Metin Dili: İngilizce İndeks Tarihi: 05-12-2018

Causality Among Oil Prices, GDP and Exchange Rate: Evidence from Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan

Öz:

Following their independence, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan,which place great importance to oil industry, have also succeededin attracting foreign investments to this industry. Overtime, this industry, which has become a key to the economy, hasmade the economy vulnerable particularly to oil prices. In thisregard, current paper investigates causal relationships betweenquarterly time series of oil prices, GDP and exchange rate forboth Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan separately. Toda-Yamamotocausality test results for Azerbaijan suggest that there are unidirectionalcausalities from exchange rate to oil prices, from oilprices to GDP and from GDP to exchange rate. As for Kazakhstan,causalities run from oil prices to GDP, exchange rate toGDP and oil prices to exchange rate.

Anahtar Kelime:

Petrol Fiyatları, GSYİH ve Döviz Kuru Arasındaki Nedensellik: Azerbaycan ve Kazakistan Örneği

Öz:

Bağımsızlıklarının ardından petrol endüstrisine büyük önem atfeden Azerbaycan ve Kazakistan, bu endüstriye yabancı yatırımları da çekmeyi başarmıştır. Ekonomi için kilit rol üstlenen bu endüstri, ekonomiyi özellikle petrol fiyatlarına karşı hassas hale getirmiştir. Bu bağlamda, mevcut çalışmada hem Azerbaycan hem de Kazakistan için petrol fiyatı, GSYİH ve döviz kuru değişkenlerine ait çeyreklik zaman serileri arasındaki nedensellik ilişkileri ayrı ayrı incelenmektedir. Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testi sonuçları, Azerbaycan için döviz kurundan petrol fiyatlarına, petrol fiyatlarından GSYİH’ya ve GSYİH’dan döviz kuruna işleyen tek yönlü nedenselliklere işaret ederken nedenselliklerin yönü Kazakistan için petrol fiyatlarından GSYİH’ya, döviz kurundan GSYİH’ya ve petrol fiyatlarından döviz kuruna şeklinde ortaya çıkmıştır.

Anahtar Kelime:

Belge Türü: Makale Makale Türü: Araştırma Makalesi Erişim Türü: Erişime Açık

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APA	Dikkaya M, Doyar B (2017). Causality Among Oil Prices, GDP and Exchange Rate: Evidence from Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. , 79 - 98.
Chicago	Dikkaya Mehmet,Doyar Bayram Veli Causality Among Oil Prices, GDP and Exchange Rate: Evidence from Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. (2017): 79 - 98.
MLA	Dikkaya Mehmet,Doyar Bayram Veli Causality Among Oil Prices, GDP and Exchange Rate: Evidence from Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. , 2017, ss.79 - 98.
AMA	Dikkaya M,Doyar B Causality Among Oil Prices, GDP and Exchange Rate: Evidence from Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. . 2017; 79 - 98.
Vancouver	Dikkaya M,Doyar B Causality Among Oil Prices, GDP and Exchange Rate: Evidence from Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. . 2017; 79 - 98.
IEEE	Dikkaya M,Doyar B "Causality Among Oil Prices, GDP and Exchange Rate: Evidence from Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan." , ss.79 - 98, 2017.
ISNAD	Dikkaya, Mehmet - Doyar, Bayram Veli. "Causality Among Oil Prices, GDP and Exchange Rate: Evidence from Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan". (2017), 79-98.

APA	Dikkaya M, Doyar B (2017). Causality Among Oil Prices, GDP and Exchange Rate: Evidence from Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. Bilig / Türk Dünyası Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 0(83), 79 - 98.
Chicago	Dikkaya Mehmet,Doyar Bayram Veli Causality Among Oil Prices, GDP and Exchange Rate: Evidence from Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. Bilig / Türk Dünyası Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi 0, no.83 (2017): 79 - 98.
MLA	Dikkaya Mehmet,Doyar Bayram Veli Causality Among Oil Prices, GDP and Exchange Rate: Evidence from Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. Bilig / Türk Dünyası Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, vol.0, no.83, 2017, ss.79 - 98.
AMA	Dikkaya M,Doyar B Causality Among Oil Prices, GDP and Exchange Rate: Evidence from Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. Bilig / Türk Dünyası Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi. 2017; 0(83): 79 - 98.
Vancouver	Dikkaya M,Doyar B Causality Among Oil Prices, GDP and Exchange Rate: Evidence from Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. Bilig / Türk Dünyası Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi. 2017; 0(83): 79 - 98.
IEEE	Dikkaya M,Doyar B "Causality Among Oil Prices, GDP and Exchange Rate: Evidence from Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan." Bilig / Türk Dünyası Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 0, ss.79 - 98, 2017.
ISNAD	Dikkaya, Mehmet - Doyar, Bayram Veli. "Causality Among Oil Prices, GDP and Exchange Rate: Evidence from Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan". Bilig / Türk Dünyası Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi 83 (2017), 79-98.