Kuzey Anadolu Fay Zonu ve Civarındaki Güncel Deprem Aktivitesinin Bölgesel ve Zamana Bağlı Analizleri
Yıl: 2017 Cilt: 38 Sayı: 2 Sayfa Aralığı: 193 - 228 Metin Dili: Türkçe İndeks Tarihi: 21-12-2018
Kuzey Anadolu Fay Zonu ve Civarındaki Güncel Deprem Aktivitesinin Bölgesel ve Zamana Bağlı Analizleri
Öz: Bu çalışmada, sismotektonik b-değeri, fraktal boyut Dc-değeri ve öncü sismik durgunluk Z-değeri ile bunlar arasındaki ilişkilerikullanarak, sismik olarak dünyadaki en aktif doğrultu atımlı fay sistemlerinden biri olan Kuzey Anadolu Fay Zonu ve civarıiçin depremselliğin bölgesel ve zamana bağlı değişimleri analiz edilmiştir. b-değeri ile Dc-değeri arasında güncel ve güvenilirbir istatistiksel ilişki ortaya koyabilmek için, birkaç regresyon yöntemi test edilmiştir. KAFZ ve civarı için, Ortogonal regresyonuyumu ile çok güçlü negatif ilişki katsayısına (r=-0.98) sahip Dc=2.46-0.58*b ilişkisi daha güvenilir olarak hesaplanmıştır.b ve Dc-değerlerinin zamana bağlı değişimlerinde önemli dalgalanmalar görülmüştür ve sonuçta, 2012-2013 yılları arasındab-değerlerindeki azalım ile Dc-değerlerindeki artış eğilimi, KAFZ ve civarındaki gelecek deprem potansiyeli açısından önemliolabilir. 1.0’dan küçük b-değerleri ile 1.85’ten büyük Dc-değerleri Düzce fayı civarı ve Karadeniz kıyısı, Pülümür fayı ve Erzincancivarı, Pülümür-Karlıova arası, Sancak-Uzunpınar ve Göynük fay zonlarını içerisinde alan bölgelerde gözlenmiştir. 2016 yılı başında,Enez, Etili fayının kuzeyi, Çanakkale ve Edremit, Tekirdağ-Silivri ve Marmara denizi, Karadeniz kısmı ve Yalova-İzmit civarı,Manyas fay zonunun kuzeyi, İznik-Gebze, Düzce fayı ve Karadeniz kıyısı, İsmetpaşa segmenti ile Laçin-Merzifon fay zonları vecivarında sismik durgunluk anomalileri gözlenmiştir. Hem en düşük b-değeri hem de en yüksek Dc-değeri ile yüksek Z-değerinesahip bölgeler ise Düzce fayı civarı ve Karadeniz kıyılarıdır. Önemli bir sonuç olarak, bu sismotektonik parametrelerin birlikte değerlendirilmesi,KAFZ ve civarındaki gelecek deprem potansiyelini ortaya koymada bazı önemli ipuçları sağlayabilir ve bu anomalialanları gelecek depremlerin olası bölgeleri olarak yorumlanabilir.
Anahtar Kelime: Konular:
Regional and Temporal Analyses of the Current Earthquake Activity in and around the North Anatolian Fault Zone
Öz: In this study, the regional and temporal variations of seismicity in and around the North Anatolian Fault Zone, one of the most seismically active strike slip fault systems in the World, are analyzed by using the seismotectonic b-value, fractal dimension Dcvalue, precursory seismic quiescence Z-value and correlations with each other. In order to produce an up-to-date and reliable statistical relation, several regression methods are tested. In and around the NAFZ, the relation of Dc=2.46-0.58*b having a very strong negative correlation coefficient, r=-0.98, is calculated as a more reliable relation. Significant fluctuations are observed in the temporal changes of b and Dc-values and the decreasing in b-value and thus the increasing trend in Dc-value between the years of 2012 and 2013 may be important in terms of the next earthquake potential in and around the NAFZ. The b-values lower than 1.0 and also the Dc-values larger than 1.85 are observed in the regions covering the vicinity of Düzce fault and the Black Sea coast, the vicinity of Pülümür fault and Erzincan, between Pülümür and Karlıova, Sancak-Uzunpınar and Göynük fault zones. At the beginning of 2016, seismic quiescence anomalies are observed in and around Enez, the north of Etili fault, Çanakkale and Edremit, Tekirdağ-Silivri and Marmara Sea, the part of Black Sea and the vicinity of Yalova-İzmit, the northern part of Manyas fault, İznik-Gebze, Düzce fault and the Black Sea coast, İsmetpaşa segment and Laçin-Merzifon fault zone. The regions having both the smallest b-value and the largest Dc-value with the high Z-value are the vicinity of Düzce fault and the Black Sea coast. As an important result, the combination of these seismotectonic parameters may supply some important evidences in order to reveal the next earthquake potential in and around the NAFZ and, these anomaly areas may be interpreted as the possible locations of the next earthquakes.
Anahtar Kelime: Konular:
Belge Türü: Makale Makale Türü: Araştırma Makalesi Erişim Türü: Erişime Açık
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| APA | öztürk s (2017). Kuzey Anadolu Fay Zonu ve Civarındaki Güncel Deprem Aktivitesinin Bölgesel ve Zamana Bağlı Analizleri. , 193 - 228. |
| Chicago | öztürk serkan Kuzey Anadolu Fay Zonu ve Civarındaki Güncel Deprem Aktivitesinin Bölgesel ve Zamana Bağlı Analizleri. (2017): 193 - 228. |
| MLA | öztürk serkan Kuzey Anadolu Fay Zonu ve Civarındaki Güncel Deprem Aktivitesinin Bölgesel ve Zamana Bağlı Analizleri. , 2017, ss.193 - 228. |
| AMA | öztürk s Kuzey Anadolu Fay Zonu ve Civarındaki Güncel Deprem Aktivitesinin Bölgesel ve Zamana Bağlı Analizleri. . 2017; 193 - 228. |
| Vancouver | öztürk s Kuzey Anadolu Fay Zonu ve Civarındaki Güncel Deprem Aktivitesinin Bölgesel ve Zamana Bağlı Analizleri. . 2017; 193 - 228. |
| IEEE | öztürk s "Kuzey Anadolu Fay Zonu ve Civarındaki Güncel Deprem Aktivitesinin Bölgesel ve Zamana Bağlı Analizleri." , ss.193 - 228, 2017. |
| ISNAD | öztürk, serkan. "Kuzey Anadolu Fay Zonu ve Civarındaki Güncel Deprem Aktivitesinin Bölgesel ve Zamana Bağlı Analizleri". (2017), 193-228. |
| APA | öztürk s (2017). Kuzey Anadolu Fay Zonu ve Civarındaki Güncel Deprem Aktivitesinin Bölgesel ve Zamana Bağlı Analizleri. Yerbilimleri, 38(2), 193 - 228. |
| Chicago | öztürk serkan Kuzey Anadolu Fay Zonu ve Civarındaki Güncel Deprem Aktivitesinin Bölgesel ve Zamana Bağlı Analizleri. Yerbilimleri 38, no.2 (2017): 193 - 228. |
| MLA | öztürk serkan Kuzey Anadolu Fay Zonu ve Civarındaki Güncel Deprem Aktivitesinin Bölgesel ve Zamana Bağlı Analizleri. Yerbilimleri, vol.38, no.2, 2017, ss.193 - 228. |
| AMA | öztürk s Kuzey Anadolu Fay Zonu ve Civarındaki Güncel Deprem Aktivitesinin Bölgesel ve Zamana Bağlı Analizleri. Yerbilimleri. 2017; 38(2): 193 - 228. |
| Vancouver | öztürk s Kuzey Anadolu Fay Zonu ve Civarındaki Güncel Deprem Aktivitesinin Bölgesel ve Zamana Bağlı Analizleri. Yerbilimleri. 2017; 38(2): 193 - 228. |
| IEEE | öztürk s "Kuzey Anadolu Fay Zonu ve Civarındaki Güncel Deprem Aktivitesinin Bölgesel ve Zamana Bağlı Analizleri." Yerbilimleri, 38, ss.193 - 228, 2017. |
| ISNAD | öztürk, serkan. "Kuzey Anadolu Fay Zonu ve Civarındaki Güncel Deprem Aktivitesinin Bölgesel ve Zamana Bağlı Analizleri". Yerbilimleri 38/2 (2017), 193-228. |
