Bedriye SARAÇOĞLU
(Atılım Üniversitesi)
ŞENAY AÇIKGÖZ
(Gazi Üniversitesi İİBF)
GAYE KARPAT ÇATALBAŞ
(Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İİBF)
Yıl: 2018Cilt: 18Sayı: 4ISSN: 1303-0876 / 2667-8683Sayfa Aralığı: 39 - 57Türkçe

133 3
Döviz Kuru Oynaklığının Türkiye’nin Almanya ile Mal Ticareti Üzerine Etkileri
Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’nin en önemli ticari ortağı konumunda bulunan Almanya ile karşılıklı dış ticareti üzerinde reel döviz kuru ve döviz kur oynaklığının etkileri sektörel (SITC Rev. 3’e göre 1-digit üzerinden 10 sektör ile) bazda incelenmiştir. 2002-2015 dönemini kapsayan üç aylık veriler ile her bir sektörün ihracat ve ithalat akımları, gelir etkisini görmek için Türkiye ve Almanya’nın gayri safi yurtiçi hasılası, fiyat etkilerini görmek için reel döviz kuru (Avro/Türk Lirası) ve reel döviz kuru oynaklığının bir fonksiyonu olarak tanımlanmıştır. Döviz kuru oynaklığı üç aylık dönemlerde aylık reel döviz kuru değerlerinin standart sapması olarak alınmıştır. Değişkenler arasındaki uzun dönem ilişkiler Pesaran ve Shin (1999) ve Pesaran, Shin ve Smith (2001) çalışmalarında tanımlanan sınır sınaması ve otoregresif dağıtılmış gecikme modeli (ARDL) ile incelenmiştir. Analiz sonuçlarına göre, reel döviz kuru oynaklığı reel döviz kuru ile birlikte Almanya ile dış ticaretimizde payı yüksek olan sektörlerde belirleyici olarak bulunmuştur.
DergiAraştırma MakalesiErişime Açık
  • Aktaş, A. R., Kaplan, F., Ozkan, B. & Brumfield, R. (2015). The effect of exchange rate uncertainty on agricultural exports: a study of Turkey. Business Management Dynamics, March 31, 4(8), 1-8.
  • Aldan, A., Aydın, M. F., Çulha, O. Y., Sunel, E. & Taş-kın, T. (2012). İhracatta Bölgesel ve Sektörel Çeşit-lenme, TCMB Ekonomi Notları, Sayı: 2012-18 /25 Temmuz, 1-14.
  • Asteriou, D., Masatci, K. & Pılbeam, K. (2016). Exc-hange rate volatility and international trade: Inter-national evidence from the MINT countries. Eco-nomic Modelling, 58, 133-140.
  • Auboin, M. & Ruta, M. (2013). The relationship betwe-en exchange rates and international trade: A lite-rature review. World Trade Review, 12(3), 577-605.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. & Wang, Y. (2007). How Stable is the demand for money in China? Journal of Eco-nomic Development, 32(1), 21-33.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. and Hegerty, S.W. (2007). Exc-hange rate volatility and trade flows: a review artic-le. J. Econ. Stud. 34 (3), 211–255.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Harvey, H. & S. Hegerty, W. (2013). The effects of exchange-rate volatility on commodity trade between the U.S. and Brazil. North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 25, 70-93.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. (1986). Determinants of in-ternational trade flows: The case of developing co-untries, Journal of Development Economics, 20(1), 107-123.
  • Baron, D.P. (1976). Fluctuating exchange rates and the pricing of exports. Economic Inquiry, 14, 425-438.
  • Baum, C.F. & Çağlayan, M. (2010). On the sensitivity of the volume and volatility of bilateral trade flows to exchange rate uncertainty. Journal of Internatio-nal Money and Finance, 29, 79-93.
  • Bayar, G. Ünal, M. & Tokpunar, S. (2015). Determi-nants of Turkish exports to European Union Co-untries: A sectoral panel data analysis. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 51(6), 1307-1325.
  • Chowdhury, A. R. (1993). Does exchange rate volati-lity depress trade flows? Evidence from error-cor-rection models. Review of Economics and Statistics, 700-706.
  • Clark, P., Tamirisa, N. & Wei, S. J. (2004). Exchange rate volatility and trade flows some new evidence. International Monetary Fund. https://www.imf. org/external/np/res/exrate/2004/eng/051904.pdf (Erişim Tarihi: 26.11.2016).
  • Clark, P.B. (1973). Uncertainty, exchange risk, and the level of international trade. Western Economic Jour-nal, 6, 302-313.
  • Demirhan E. & Demirhan, B. (2015). The dynamic ef-fect of exchange-rate volatility on Turkish exports: Parsimonious error-correction model approach. Panoeconomıcus, 62(4), 429-451.
  • Doğanlar, M. (2002). Estimating the impact of exchan-ge rate volatility on exports: evidence from Asian countries. Applied Economics Letters, 9, 859–863.
  • Erdal, G., Erdal, H. & Esengün, K. (2012). The effects of exchange rate volatility on trade: evidence from Turkish agricultural trade. Applied Economics Let-ters, 19(3), 297-303,
  • Fountas, S. & Aristotelous, K. (2005). The impact of the exchange rate regime on exports: Evidence from the European monetary system. Journal of Economic Integration, 20(3), 567-589.
  • Franke, G. (1991). Exchange rate volatility and inter-national trading strategy. Journal of International Money and Finance, 10, 292-307.
  • Giorgioni, G. & Thompson, J.L. (2002). Which volati-lity? The case of the exports of wheat. Applied Eco-nomics Letters, 9(4), 681-684.
  • Hansen, B. E. (1992). Tests for parameter instability in regressions with I(1) processes. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 10, 321-335.
  • Hansen, B. E. (1990). Lagrange Multiplier Tests for Pa-rameter Instability in Non-linear Models, (unpub-lished manuscript). University of Rochester, Dept. of Economics. http://www.ssc.wisc.edu/~bhansen/ papers/LMTests.pdf (Erişim Tarihi: 15.12.2016).
  • Kızıldere, C., Kabadayı, B. & Emsen, Ö. S. (2014). dış ticaretin döviz kuru değişimlerine duyarlılığı: Tür-kiye üzerine bir inceleme. International Journal of Economic and Administrative Studies, 6(12), 39-53.
  • Korkmaz, M., Alacahan, N. D., Aytaç, A., Aksoy, M., Germir, H. N. & Karta, N. (2015). The relation bet-ween real exchange rate in Turkey and foreign tra-de: An applied analysis. IIB International Refereed Academic Social Sciences Journal, 6(18), 84-104.
  • Maskus, K.E. (1986). Exchange rate risk and US trade: a sectoral analysis. Economic Review, 71(3), 16-28.
  • McKenzie, M. & Brooks, R.D. (1997). The impact of exchange rate volatility on German-US trade flows. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institu-tions & Money, 7(1), 73-87
  • McKenzie, M. D. (1999). The impact of exchange rate volatility on international trade flows. Journal of Economic Surveys, 13(1), 71–106.
  • Narayan, Paresh Kumar (2005). The saving and invest-ment nexus for China: Evidence from cointegrati-on tests. Applied Econometrics, 37, 1979–1990.
  • Özmen, E (2014). Reel Döviz Kuru ve Türkiye Dış Ticaret Dinamikleri. Economic Research Center Working Papers in Economics, No: 14/12, Ankara: Ortadoğu Teknik Üniversitesi.
  • Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y. (1999). An autoregressive distributed lag modeling approach to cointgeration analysis. in S. Strom (Ed.), Econometrics and Eco-nomic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium, Cambridge Uni-versity Press, Cambridge.
  • Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relations-hips. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16, 289–326.
  • Phillips, P. C. B. & Hansen, B. E. (1990). Statistical infe-rence in instrumental variables regression with I(1) processes. Review of Economic Studies, 57, 99–125.
  • Poon, W.C., Choong, C.K. & Habibullah, M.S. (2005). Exchange rate volatility and exports for selected East Asian countries: evidence from error correc-tion model. ASEAN Economic Bulletin, 22(2), 144-59.
  • Rapp, T.A. & Reddy, N.N. (2000). The effect of real exc-hange rate volatility on bilateral sector exports. The Journal of Economics, 26, 87-103.
  • Sercu, P. & Vanhulle, C. (1992). Exchange rate volati-lity, international trade, and the value of exporting firms. Journal of Banking and Finance, 16, 155-82
  • Stokman, A. C. J. (1995). Effect of exchange rate risk on intra-EC trade. De Economist, 143, 41-54.
  • Sukar, A.H. & Hassan, S. (2001). US exports and time varying volatility of real exchange rate. Global Fi-nance Journal, 12(1), 109-19.
  • Tenreyro, S. (2007). On the trade impact of nominal exchange rate volatility. Journal of Development Economics, 82(2), 485-508.
  • Tunaer Vural, B. M. (2016). Effect of real exchange rate on trade balance: commodity level evidence from Turkish bilateral trade data. Procedia Economics and Finance, 38, 499-507.
  • Vergil, H. (2002). Exchange rate volatility in Turkey and its effect on trade flows. Journal of Economic and Social Research, 4(1), 67-80.
  • Yanikkaya H., Kaya H. & Kocturk O.M. (2013). The effect of real exchange rates and their volatilities on the selected agricultural commodity exports: A case study on Turkey, 1971-2010. Agricultural Economics-Czech, 59(5), 235-24.

TÜBİTAK ULAKBİM Ulusal Akademik Ağ ve Bilgi Merkezi Cahit Arf Bilgi Merkezi © 2019 Tüm Hakları Saklıdır.