TÜRKİYE’DE FAİZ ORANI VE DÖVİZ KURU İLİŞKİSİ ÜZERİNE BİR ARAŞTIRMA
Yıl: 2019 Cilt: 9 Sayı: 17 Sayfa Aralığı: 289 - 308 Metin Dili: Türkçe DOI: 10.29029/busbed.506059 İndeks Tarihi: 10-01-2020
TÜRKİYE’DE FAİZ ORANI VE DÖVİZ KURU İLİŞKİSİ ÜZERİNE BİR ARAŞTIRMA
Öz: Bu çalışma, Türkiye ekonomisinde 2006:Q1-2017:Q4 dönemi kısa vadeli reelfaiz oranları ve ortalama döviz kurları arasındaki eşbütünleşme ve nedensellikilişkilerinin incelenmesi amacıyla tasarlanmıştır. Bu kapsamda yapılan EngleGranger eşbütünleşme testi sonuçlarına göre kısa dönemli reel faiz oranları ileortalama döviz kuru değişkenlerinin uzun dönemde birlikte hareket ettikleri tespitedilmiştir. Aralarında eşbütünleşme ilişkisi tespit edilen model değişkenlerininherhangi bir nedensellik ilişkisine sahip olup olmadığı ise hata düzeltme modelinedayalı Granger nedensellik analizi yardımıyla sınanmıştır. Nedensellik analizisonucunda, değişkenlerin kısa dönemde herhangi bir nedensellik ilişkisi içerisindeolmadıkları tespit edilmekle birlikte uzun dönemde karşılıklı nedensellik ilişkisininolduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Analiz sonucunda ulaşılan bulgular bağlamında birdeğerlendirme yapıldığında söz konusu her iki değişkenin de birbirleri için uyarıcı bir değişken olduğu yorumu yapılabilecektir. Nitekim ekonomik konjonktürüntemel belirleyicileri arasında yer alan bu değişkenler arasındaki eşbütünleşmeve nedensellik ilişkisinin varlığı makroekonomik denge unsurları açısından önemarz etmektedir. Bu sebeple özellikle gelişmekte olan ülke ekonomilerinin ekonomikşoklar karşısındaki direnç kapasitesinin arttırılması noktasında faiz oranları vedöviz kuru üzerindeki rolünü belirleyebilecek nitelikte kararlar alması gerektiğisöylenebilecektir.
Anahtar Kelime: A RESEARCH ON RELATIONS BETWEEN THE INTEREST RATE AND EXCHANGE RATE IN TURKEY
Öz: This study has designed to investigate the cointegration and causality relationship between short-term real interest rates and average exchange rates for Turkish economy by the period of 2006:Q1-2017:Q4. According to the Engle-Granger cointegration test results, imply that short term real interest rates and average exchange rate variables act together in long term. Whether the model variables with which the cointegration relationship is determined have any causality relationship was tested by Granger causality analysis based on the error correction model. Causality test result concluded that there was not any causal relations between the variables in question in the short term, but there was a mutual causal relations in the long run. When an evaluation is made in the context of the findings obtained from the analysis, it can be interpreted that these two variables are a stimulating variable for each other. As a matter of fact, the existence of the cointegration and causality relationship between these variables, which are among the main determinants of the economic conjuncture, are important in terms of macroeconomic balance elements. For this reason, it can be said that especially the economies of developing countries should take decisions to determine the role on interest rates and exchange rate in order to increase the capacity of resistance against economic shocks.
Anahtar Kelime: Belge Türü: Makale Makale Türü: Derleme Erişim Türü: Erişime Açık
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| APA | ayla d (2019). TÜRKİYE’DE FAİZ ORANI VE DÖVİZ KURU İLİŞKİSİ ÜZERİNE BİR ARAŞTIRMA. , 289 - 308. 10.29029/busbed.506059 |
| Chicago | ayla dilara TÜRKİYE’DE FAİZ ORANI VE DÖVİZ KURU İLİŞKİSİ ÜZERİNE BİR ARAŞTIRMA. (2019): 289 - 308. 10.29029/busbed.506059 |
| MLA | ayla dilara TÜRKİYE’DE FAİZ ORANI VE DÖVİZ KURU İLİŞKİSİ ÜZERİNE BİR ARAŞTIRMA. , 2019, ss.289 - 308. 10.29029/busbed.506059 |
| AMA | ayla d TÜRKİYE’DE FAİZ ORANI VE DÖVİZ KURU İLİŞKİSİ ÜZERİNE BİR ARAŞTIRMA. . 2019; 289 - 308. 10.29029/busbed.506059 |
| Vancouver | ayla d TÜRKİYE’DE FAİZ ORANI VE DÖVİZ KURU İLİŞKİSİ ÜZERİNE BİR ARAŞTIRMA. . 2019; 289 - 308. 10.29029/busbed.506059 |
| IEEE | ayla d "TÜRKİYE’DE FAİZ ORANI VE DÖVİZ KURU İLİŞKİSİ ÜZERİNE BİR ARAŞTIRMA." , ss.289 - 308, 2019. 10.29029/busbed.506059 |
| ISNAD | ayla, dilara. "TÜRKİYE’DE FAİZ ORANI VE DÖVİZ KURU İLİŞKİSİ ÜZERİNE BİR ARAŞTIRMA". (2019), 289-308. https://doi.org/10.29029/busbed.506059 |
| APA | ayla d (2019). TÜRKİYE’DE FAİZ ORANI VE DÖVİZ KURU İLİŞKİSİ ÜZERİNE BİR ARAŞTIRMA. Bingöl Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 9(17), 289 - 308. 10.29029/busbed.506059 |
| Chicago | ayla dilara TÜRKİYE’DE FAİZ ORANI VE DÖVİZ KURU İLİŞKİSİ ÜZERİNE BİR ARAŞTIRMA. Bingöl Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi 9, no.17 (2019): 289 - 308. 10.29029/busbed.506059 |
| MLA | ayla dilara TÜRKİYE’DE FAİZ ORANI VE DÖVİZ KURU İLİŞKİSİ ÜZERİNE BİR ARAŞTIRMA. Bingöl Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, vol.9, no.17, 2019, ss.289 - 308. 10.29029/busbed.506059 |
| AMA | ayla d TÜRKİYE’DE FAİZ ORANI VE DÖVİZ KURU İLİŞKİSİ ÜZERİNE BİR ARAŞTIRMA. Bingöl Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi. 2019; 9(17): 289 - 308. 10.29029/busbed.506059 |
| Vancouver | ayla d TÜRKİYE’DE FAİZ ORANI VE DÖVİZ KURU İLİŞKİSİ ÜZERİNE BİR ARAŞTIRMA. Bingöl Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi. 2019; 9(17): 289 - 308. 10.29029/busbed.506059 |
| IEEE | ayla d "TÜRKİYE’DE FAİZ ORANI VE DÖVİZ KURU İLİŞKİSİ ÜZERİNE BİR ARAŞTIRMA." Bingöl Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 9, ss.289 - 308, 2019. 10.29029/busbed.506059 |
| ISNAD | ayla, dilara. "TÜRKİYE’DE FAİZ ORANI VE DÖVİZ KURU İLİŞKİSİ ÜZERİNE BİR ARAŞTIRMA". Bingöl Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi 9/17 (2019), 289-308. https://doi.org/10.29029/busbed.506059 |
