Yıl: 2020 Cilt: 9 Sayı: 1 Sayfa Aralığı: 8 - 16 Metin Dili: İngilizce İndeks Tarihi: 13-11-2020

Forecasting for Healthcare Expenditure of Turkey Covering the Years of 2018-2050

Öz:
The aim of this study was to measure healthexpenditure (HE) estimates for Turkey for the next 32years. Considering HE data of Turkey for the periodfrom 1975 to 2017 over 42 years, more than oneequation was obtained for estimation. Equations wereformed in trendline analysis in order to estimate the HEvalues in the long term by considering the reliabilitylevels of the data. The data were used for HE of Turkeyas a share of gross domestic product (GDP), whichranges from less than 1.49 % to 5.53 % in this research.Estimation of HE of Turkey for the next 32 years (theperiod from 2018 to 2050) according to the formulasdeveloped were considered in this research. For theyears to come, the maximum ratio of HE of 8.56 % wasgained by the exponential trend for the year 2050. Inthe opposite direction, the minimum HE ratio wasexpected to be 2.17 % of the 5th order equation for 2018.7.45 % covers the years after 2030 due to theexponential distribution for the average the values ofHE. While the average value obtained by the 6th orderequation, which has the highest reliability rate is 3.45%, the difference between the maximum and theminimum was calculated as 3.4479%. For the period of2018-2050, an average of HE rates of Turkey was 5.07%, whereas the maximum value was calculated to be6.68 %. The minimum value of HE was estimated at3.58 % of GDP. As a result, Turkey needs to upgradethe amount of budget allocated for healthcare on thepurpose of improving healthcare infrastructure.
Anahtar Kelime:

2018-2050 Yıllarını Kapsayan Türkiye'nin Sağlık Harcamalarına İlişkin Tahminler

Öz:
Bu çalışmanın amacı gelecek 32 yıl için Türkiye sağlık harcamaları (SH) tahminlerini ölçmektir. Türkiye'nin 1975-2017 yılları arasında 42 yıl boyunca elde edilen SH verilerine dayanarak yapılan tahminler için birden fazla denklem elde edilmiştir. Verilerin güvenirlilik düzeyleri göz önünde bulundurarak uzun vadede SH değerlerini tahmin etmek için trend eğilim analiz denklemleri oluşturulmuştur. Gayri safi yurtiçi hasılanın (GSYH’nin) %1,49 ile %5,53 arasında değişen Türkiye SH verileri kullanılarak gelecek 32 yıl (2018-2050 dönemi) için Türkiye’ye ait SH değerleri tahmin edilmiştir. Maksimum SH oranı 2050 yılı için üstel eğilim gösteren denklem uygulanarak yaklaşık %8,56 hesaplanmıştır. Aksi takdirde, minimum SH oranı 2018 yılı için beşinci dereceden denklem ile %2,17 olarak elde edilmiştir. Üstel dağılım metoduyla 2030 yılından sonraki yıllar için ortalama SH değeri %7,45 hesaplanmıştır. En yüksek güvenirlilik oranına sahip olan altıncı derecedeki denklem tarafından elde edilen ortalama değer %3,48 iken, maksimum ve minimum SH değerleri arasındaki farkı %3,45 olarak bulunmuştur. Çalışmanın sonuçlarına göre SH oranının, yapılan analizlere göre GSYH’den daha hızlı artmadığı gözlemlenmiştir. 2018 ile 2050 yılları arasında Türkiye’ye ait SH oranın ortalama olarak %5,07 bulunurken, maksimum değer %6,68 olarak hesaplanmıştır. Minimum SH değerinin ise GSYH’nin %3,58'i olarak tekabül edeceği görülmektedir. Sonuç olarak, Türkiye’nin sağlık alt yapısını geliştirmesi adına sağlık için ayrılan bütçenin yükseltilmesi gerekmektedir.
Anahtar Kelime:

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APA ATALAN A (2020). Forecasting for Healthcare Expenditure of Turkey Covering the Years of 2018-2050. , 8 - 16.
Chicago ATALAN Abdulkadir Forecasting for Healthcare Expenditure of Turkey Covering the Years of 2018-2050. (2020): 8 - 16.
MLA ATALAN Abdulkadir Forecasting for Healthcare Expenditure of Turkey Covering the Years of 2018-2050. , 2020, ss.8 - 16.
AMA ATALAN A Forecasting for Healthcare Expenditure of Turkey Covering the Years of 2018-2050. . 2020; 8 - 16.
Vancouver ATALAN A Forecasting for Healthcare Expenditure of Turkey Covering the Years of 2018-2050. . 2020; 8 - 16.
IEEE ATALAN A "Forecasting for Healthcare Expenditure of Turkey Covering the Years of 2018-2050." , ss.8 - 16, 2020.
ISNAD ATALAN, Abdulkadir. "Forecasting for Healthcare Expenditure of Turkey Covering the Years of 2018-2050". (2020), 8-16.
APA ATALAN A (2020). Forecasting for Healthcare Expenditure of Turkey Covering the Years of 2018-2050. Gümüşhane Üniversitesi Sağlık Bilimleri Dergisi, 9(1), 8 - 16.
Chicago ATALAN Abdulkadir Forecasting for Healthcare Expenditure of Turkey Covering the Years of 2018-2050. Gümüşhane Üniversitesi Sağlık Bilimleri Dergisi 9, no.1 (2020): 8 - 16.
MLA ATALAN Abdulkadir Forecasting for Healthcare Expenditure of Turkey Covering the Years of 2018-2050. Gümüşhane Üniversitesi Sağlık Bilimleri Dergisi, vol.9, no.1, 2020, ss.8 - 16.
AMA ATALAN A Forecasting for Healthcare Expenditure of Turkey Covering the Years of 2018-2050. Gümüşhane Üniversitesi Sağlık Bilimleri Dergisi. 2020; 9(1): 8 - 16.
Vancouver ATALAN A Forecasting for Healthcare Expenditure of Turkey Covering the Years of 2018-2050. Gümüşhane Üniversitesi Sağlık Bilimleri Dergisi. 2020; 9(1): 8 - 16.
IEEE ATALAN A "Forecasting for Healthcare Expenditure of Turkey Covering the Years of 2018-2050." Gümüşhane Üniversitesi Sağlık Bilimleri Dergisi, 9, ss.8 - 16, 2020.
ISNAD ATALAN, Abdulkadir. "Forecasting for Healthcare Expenditure of Turkey Covering the Years of 2018-2050". Gümüşhane Üniversitesi Sağlık Bilimleri Dergisi 9/1 (2020), 8-16.