Projections of tourist arrivals in the Eastern Black Sea Region of Turkey

Ashfak Ahmad KHAN (Karabük Üniversitesi, Edebiyat Fakültesi, Coğrafya Bölümü, Karabük, Türkiye)
Coğrafi Bilimler Dergisi
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Yıl: 2020 Cilt: 18 Sayı: 1 Sayfa Aralığı: 85 - 98 Metin Dili: İngilizce DOI: 10.33688/ aucbd.688738 İndeks Tarihi: 19-12-2020

Projections of tourist arrivals in the Eastern Black Sea Region of Turkey

Öz:
Tourism forecasting plays a vital role in developing a firm policy for themanagement of future development in the sector. This study makes touristarrival projections in the Eastern Black Sea Region of Turkey with theapplication of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model.Monthly data of tourist arrivals from 2008 to 2018 have been used for theproposed model. The results have revealed that the proposed model hasprojected the tourist arrival values that are near to actual tourist arrivals.Tourist arrivals are expected to be increased in the future years in EasternBlack Sea Region, hence, making the region a popular tourist destination.Therefore, prior measures are essential to take to develop tourism in asustainable form. The results of the study are useful for the development ofbetter tourism policy for the region as future projection is an integral part ofsustainable tourism development.
Anahtar Kelime:

Türkiye'nin Doğu Karadeniz Bölgesine Gelen Turistlerin Projeksiyonları

Öz:
Turizm öngörüleri, sektörün gelecekteki gelişmelerinin yönetimi için sağlam bir politika geliştirmede çok önemli rol oynamaktadır. Bu çalışma, Türkiye'nin Doğu Karadeniz Bölgesi’nde Otoregresif Entegre Hareketli Ortalama (ARIMA) modelinin uygulanması ile gelen turist sayısının projeksiyonunu sunmaktadır. Önerilen model için 2008'den 2018'e kadar gelen turist sayılarının aylık verileri kullanılmıştır. Sonuçlar, önerilen modelin gerçek gelen turist sayılarına çok yakın değerleri öngördüğünü ortaya koymuştur. Doğu Karadeniz Bölgesi'nde gelecek yıllarda gelen turistlerin artması ve bölgenin popüler bir turizm merkezi haline gelmesi beklenmektedir. Bu nedenle, turizmi sürdürülebilir bir biçimde geliştirmek için önceden bazı önlemlerin alınması gerekmektedir. Gelecek projeksiyonu, sürdürülebilir turizm gelişiminin ayrılmaz bir parçası olduğundan çalışmanın sonuçları bölge için daha iyi bir turizm politikasının geliştirilmesine katkıda bulunacaktır
Anahtar Kelime:

Belge Türü: Makale Makale Türü: Araştırma Makalesi Erişim Türü: Erişime Açık
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APA Khan A (2020). Projections of tourist arrivals in the Eastern Black Sea Region of Turkey. , 85 - 98. 10.33688/ aucbd.688738
Chicago Khan Ashfak Ahmad Projections of tourist arrivals in the Eastern Black Sea Region of Turkey. (2020): 85 - 98. 10.33688/ aucbd.688738
MLA Khan Ashfak Ahmad Projections of tourist arrivals in the Eastern Black Sea Region of Turkey. , 2020, ss.85 - 98. 10.33688/ aucbd.688738
AMA Khan A Projections of tourist arrivals in the Eastern Black Sea Region of Turkey. . 2020; 85 - 98. 10.33688/ aucbd.688738
Vancouver Khan A Projections of tourist arrivals in the Eastern Black Sea Region of Turkey. . 2020; 85 - 98. 10.33688/ aucbd.688738
IEEE Khan A "Projections of tourist arrivals in the Eastern Black Sea Region of Turkey." , ss.85 - 98, 2020. 10.33688/ aucbd.688738
ISNAD Khan, Ashfak Ahmad. "Projections of tourist arrivals in the Eastern Black Sea Region of Turkey". (2020), 85-98. https://doi.org/10.33688/ aucbd.688738
APA Khan A (2020). Projections of tourist arrivals in the Eastern Black Sea Region of Turkey. Coğrafi Bilimler Dergisi, 18(1), 85 - 98. 10.33688/ aucbd.688738
Chicago Khan Ashfak Ahmad Projections of tourist arrivals in the Eastern Black Sea Region of Turkey. Coğrafi Bilimler Dergisi 18, no.1 (2020): 85 - 98. 10.33688/ aucbd.688738
MLA Khan Ashfak Ahmad Projections of tourist arrivals in the Eastern Black Sea Region of Turkey. Coğrafi Bilimler Dergisi, vol.18, no.1, 2020, ss.85 - 98. 10.33688/ aucbd.688738
AMA Khan A Projections of tourist arrivals in the Eastern Black Sea Region of Turkey. Coğrafi Bilimler Dergisi. 2020; 18(1): 85 - 98. 10.33688/ aucbd.688738
Vancouver Khan A Projections of tourist arrivals in the Eastern Black Sea Region of Turkey. Coğrafi Bilimler Dergisi. 2020; 18(1): 85 - 98. 10.33688/ aucbd.688738
IEEE Khan A "Projections of tourist arrivals in the Eastern Black Sea Region of Turkey." Coğrafi Bilimler Dergisi, 18, ss.85 - 98, 2020. 10.33688/ aucbd.688738
ISNAD Khan, Ashfak Ahmad. "Projections of tourist arrivals in the Eastern Black Sea Region of Turkey". Coğrafi Bilimler Dergisi 18/1 (2020), 85-98. https://doi.org/10.33688/ aucbd.688738
Sayfa Oluşturulma Tarihi
23-04-2024 16:7

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