Yıl: 2020 Cilt: 40 Sayı: 2 Sayfa Aralığı: 228 - 235 Metin Dili: İngilizce DOI: 10.5336/medsci.2020-75704 İndeks Tarihi: 25-12-2020

Analysis from Statistical Perspective of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Cases in Turkey: How are the Things Going on?

Öz:
Objective: There is only limited data about 2019-novelcoronavirus (2019-nCov) outbreak from Turkey. Here, we aimed toanalyse 2019-nCov cases in Turkey from statistical perspective. Materialand Methods: Data were obtained from Republic of TurkeyMinistery of Health website. The statistical modeling was performedfor tests between 27 March and 18 April. The ratios were computedfor according to test numbers, number of cases, number of patientsin intensive care care, deaths for statistical analysis. An associationbetween related ratios and time was analyzed by using curve estimationapproach. Curves were drawn with 95% confidence interval. Results:The ratio of number of cases/number of tests were increaseduntil 7 April and then decreased while the ratio of daily recoveredcases/number of daily cases were decreased until that date and then increased.The ratio of deaths/number of cases were increased rapidlyinitially whereas it later increased more slowly. Although the ratio ofnumber of intubated cases/number of cases and the ratio of number ofcases in intensive care unit/number of cases have tendency to decreasein same rate, the ratio of number of deaths/number of cases in intensivecare unit has tendency to increase from the beginning of pandemiauntil this date. Conclusion: The increasing trend of recoveredcases, decreasing of deaths, requirement of intensive care unit and intubationare the main satisfactions for Turkey. The statistical modelingused here could shed some light on the control of process. Whilemore cases than modeling estimate can show uncontrolled process,less cases could indicate well-controlled process.
Anahtar Kelime:

Türkiye’deki 2019 Yeni Koronavirüs Vakalarının İstatistiksel Bakış Açısı ile Analizi: Süreç Nasıl Gidiyor?

Öz:
Amaç: Dünyada salgın oluşturan 2019-yeni koronavirüse (2019-nCov) ilişkin Türkiye’den kısıtlı veri mevcuttur. Bu çalışmadaki amacımız ülkemizdeki olguların istatistiksel yönden analizidir. Gereç ve Yöntemler: Veriler Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Sağlık Bakanlığı’nın internet sitesinden alınarak, 27 Mart ve 18 Nisan arasındaki testler için istatistiksel modelleme yapıldı. Test sayılarına, vaka sayılarına, yoğun bakımdaki hasta sayısına ve ölüm sayısına göre istatistiksel analizler yapılarak oranlar hesaplandı. İlişkili oranlar ve zaman arasındaki ilişki eğri tahmin yaklaşımı ile değerlendirildi. Eğriler %95 güven aralığı ile çizildi. Bulgular: Vaka/test oranının 7 Nisan’a kadar artış gösterip sonra azaldığı, günlük iyileşen hasta sayısı/günlük vaka sayısı oranının önce azalıp, o tarihten sonra arttığı bulundu. Ölüm/vaka oranının başlangıçta hızlı bir artış hızı gösterirken daha sonra yavaş bir artış hızına ulaştığı saptandı. Pandemi başlangıcından son analiz tarihine kadar entübe vaka/vaka sayısı ile yoğun bakımdaki vaka/vaka sayısı oranlarında aynı hızda bir azalma mevcut olmasına rağmen, ölüm/yoğun bakımdaki vaka oranında aynı hızda artış mevcuttu. Sonuç: İyileşen vakaların artış, ölümlerin, yoğun bakım ünitesindeki vakaların ve entübe hastaların azalma eğiliminde olması Türkiye için olumlu bir gelişme olarak görülebilir. Burada kullanılan istatistiksel modelleme sürecin kontrolüne ışık tutabilir. İlerleyen günlerde, modelin tahmin ettiğinden çok vaka saptanması sürecin kontrol altında olmadığını gösterirken, tahminden daha az vaka olması sürecin kontrol altında olduğunu göstermektedir.
Anahtar Kelime:

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APA Toluk Ö, DINCGEZ CAKMAK B, Ercan I, uncu y (2020). Analysis from Statistical Perspective of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Cases in Turkey: How are the Things Going on?. , 228 - 235. 10.5336/medsci.2020-75704
Chicago Toluk Özlem,DINCGEZ CAKMAK BURCU,Ercan Ilker,uncu yesim Analysis from Statistical Perspective of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Cases in Turkey: How are the Things Going on?. (2020): 228 - 235. 10.5336/medsci.2020-75704
MLA Toluk Özlem,DINCGEZ CAKMAK BURCU,Ercan Ilker,uncu yesim Analysis from Statistical Perspective of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Cases in Turkey: How are the Things Going on?. , 2020, ss.228 - 235. 10.5336/medsci.2020-75704
AMA Toluk Ö,DINCGEZ CAKMAK B,Ercan I,uncu y Analysis from Statistical Perspective of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Cases in Turkey: How are the Things Going on?. . 2020; 228 - 235. 10.5336/medsci.2020-75704
Vancouver Toluk Ö,DINCGEZ CAKMAK B,Ercan I,uncu y Analysis from Statistical Perspective of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Cases in Turkey: How are the Things Going on?. . 2020; 228 - 235. 10.5336/medsci.2020-75704
IEEE Toluk Ö,DINCGEZ CAKMAK B,Ercan I,uncu y "Analysis from Statistical Perspective of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Cases in Turkey: How are the Things Going on?." , ss.228 - 235, 2020. 10.5336/medsci.2020-75704
ISNAD Toluk, Özlem vd. "Analysis from Statistical Perspective of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Cases in Turkey: How are the Things Going on?". (2020), 228-235. https://doi.org/10.5336/medsci.2020-75704
APA Toluk Ö, DINCGEZ CAKMAK B, Ercan I, uncu y (2020). Analysis from Statistical Perspective of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Cases in Turkey: How are the Things Going on?. Türkiye Klinikleri Tıp Bilimleri Dergisi, 40(2), 228 - 235. 10.5336/medsci.2020-75704
Chicago Toluk Özlem,DINCGEZ CAKMAK BURCU,Ercan Ilker,uncu yesim Analysis from Statistical Perspective of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Cases in Turkey: How are the Things Going on?. Türkiye Klinikleri Tıp Bilimleri Dergisi 40, no.2 (2020): 228 - 235. 10.5336/medsci.2020-75704
MLA Toluk Özlem,DINCGEZ CAKMAK BURCU,Ercan Ilker,uncu yesim Analysis from Statistical Perspective of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Cases in Turkey: How are the Things Going on?. Türkiye Klinikleri Tıp Bilimleri Dergisi, vol.40, no.2, 2020, ss.228 - 235. 10.5336/medsci.2020-75704
AMA Toluk Ö,DINCGEZ CAKMAK B,Ercan I,uncu y Analysis from Statistical Perspective of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Cases in Turkey: How are the Things Going on?. Türkiye Klinikleri Tıp Bilimleri Dergisi. 2020; 40(2): 228 - 235. 10.5336/medsci.2020-75704
Vancouver Toluk Ö,DINCGEZ CAKMAK B,Ercan I,uncu y Analysis from Statistical Perspective of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Cases in Turkey: How are the Things Going on?. Türkiye Klinikleri Tıp Bilimleri Dergisi. 2020; 40(2): 228 - 235. 10.5336/medsci.2020-75704
IEEE Toluk Ö,DINCGEZ CAKMAK B,Ercan I,uncu y "Analysis from Statistical Perspective of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Cases in Turkey: How are the Things Going on?." Türkiye Klinikleri Tıp Bilimleri Dergisi, 40, ss.228 - 235, 2020. 10.5336/medsci.2020-75704
ISNAD Toluk, Özlem vd. "Analysis from Statistical Perspective of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Cases in Turkey: How are the Things Going on?". Türkiye Klinikleri Tıp Bilimleri Dergisi 40/2 (2020), 228-235. https://doi.org/10.5336/medsci.2020-75704