Modified Gravitational Search Algorithm for Energy Demand Estimation of Turkey

Uğuz, Harun; Tefek, Mehmet Fatih; Beşkirli, Mehmet

Modified Gravitational Search Algorithm for Energy Demand Estimation of Turkey

Mehmet BEŞKİRLİ, (Şırnak Üniversitesi, Bilgisayar Mühendisliği Bölümü, Şırnak, Türkiye)

Mehmet Fatih TEFEK, (Osmaniye Korkut Ata Üniversitesi, Bilgisayar Mühendisliği Bölümü, Osmaniye, Türkiye)

Harun UĞUZ (Konya Teknik Üniversitesi, Bilgisayar Mühendisliği Bölümü, Konya, Türkiye)

Bitlis Eren Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Dergisi

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Yıl: 2019 Cilt: 8 Sayı: 4 Sayfa Aralığı: 1338 - 1348 Metin Dili: İngilizce İndeks Tarihi: 30-11-2020

Modified Gravitational Search Algorithm for Energy Demand Estimation of Turkey

Öz:

Estimation of energy demand beforehand is a quite significant problem in respect of economy and sources ofcountry. In this study, Gravitational Search Algorithm (GSA) was modified by making some innovations in GSAand called as Modified Gravitational Search Algorithm (MGSA). Energy demand estimation is conducted throughthe relationship between the increase in economic indicators in Turkey and energy consumption. Estimation wasactualized by using gross domestic product (GSYH), importation, exportation and demography for energy demandestimation and both linear and exponential equations. Energy demand between the years 2017-2037 was predictedby using the data belong to 1997-2011. The years between 2012 and 2016 were used as test data. It was observedthat the results acquired via MGSA estimate better compared to GSA results.

Anahtar Kelime:

Türkiye'nin Enerji Talebi Tahmini için Modifiye Yerçekimi Arama Algoritması

Öz:

Ülke ekonomisi ve kaynakları bakımından enerji talebini önceden tahmin etmek çok önemli bir problemdir. Bu çalışmada, Yerçekimi Arama Algoritması (YAA) ile YAA’da yapılan bazı yenilikler yapılarak modifiye edilmiş ve Modifiye Yerçekimi Arama Algoritması (MYAA) olarak adlandırılmıştır. Enerji talep tahmini, Türkiye’deki ekonomik göstergelerin artışı ile enerji tüketimi arasındaki ilişki ile gerçekleşmektedir. Enerji talep tahmini için gayri safi yurtiçi hasıla (GSYH), ithalat, ihracat ve nüfus bilgileri hem lineer hem de üssel denklemler kullanılarak tahmin işlemi gerçekleştirildi. 1997-2011 yılları arasındaki veriler kullanılarak 2017-2037 yılları arasındaki enerji talebi tahmin edilmiştir. 2012 ile 2016 yılları ise test verisi olarak kullanılmıştır. MGSA ile elde edilen sonuçlar GSA sonuçlarına göre daha iyi bir tahmin gerçekleştirdiği görülmüştür.

Anahtar Kelime:

Belge Türü: Makale Makale Türü: Araştırma Makalesi Erişim Türü: Erişime Açık

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APA	Beşkirli M, Tefek M, Uğuz H (2019). Modified Gravitational Search Algorithm for Energy Demand Estimation of Turkey. , 1338 - 1348.
Chicago	Beşkirli Mehmet,Tefek Mehmet Fatih,Uğuz Harun Modified Gravitational Search Algorithm for Energy Demand Estimation of Turkey. (2019): 1338 - 1348.
MLA	Beşkirli Mehmet,Tefek Mehmet Fatih,Uğuz Harun Modified Gravitational Search Algorithm for Energy Demand Estimation of Turkey. , 2019, ss.1338 - 1348.
AMA	Beşkirli M,Tefek M,Uğuz H Modified Gravitational Search Algorithm for Energy Demand Estimation of Turkey. . 2019; 1338 - 1348.
Vancouver	Beşkirli M,Tefek M,Uğuz H Modified Gravitational Search Algorithm for Energy Demand Estimation of Turkey. . 2019; 1338 - 1348.
IEEE	Beşkirli M,Tefek M,Uğuz H "Modified Gravitational Search Algorithm for Energy Demand Estimation of Turkey." , ss.1338 - 1348, 2019.
ISNAD	Beşkirli, Mehmet vd. "Modified Gravitational Search Algorithm for Energy Demand Estimation of Turkey". (2019), 1338-1348.

APA	Beşkirli M, Tefek M, Uğuz H (2019). Modified Gravitational Search Algorithm for Energy Demand Estimation of Turkey. Bitlis Eren Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Dergisi, 8(4), 1338 - 1348.
Chicago	Beşkirli Mehmet,Tefek Mehmet Fatih,Uğuz Harun Modified Gravitational Search Algorithm for Energy Demand Estimation of Turkey. Bitlis Eren Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Dergisi 8, no.4 (2019): 1338 - 1348.
MLA	Beşkirli Mehmet,Tefek Mehmet Fatih,Uğuz Harun Modified Gravitational Search Algorithm for Energy Demand Estimation of Turkey. Bitlis Eren Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Dergisi, vol.8, no.4, 2019, ss.1338 - 1348.
AMA	Beşkirli M,Tefek M,Uğuz H Modified Gravitational Search Algorithm for Energy Demand Estimation of Turkey. Bitlis Eren Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Dergisi. 2019; 8(4): 1338 - 1348.
Vancouver	Beşkirli M,Tefek M,Uğuz H Modified Gravitational Search Algorithm for Energy Demand Estimation of Turkey. Bitlis Eren Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Dergisi. 2019; 8(4): 1338 - 1348.
IEEE	Beşkirli M,Tefek M,Uğuz H "Modified Gravitational Search Algorithm for Energy Demand Estimation of Turkey." Bitlis Eren Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Dergisi, 8, ss.1338 - 1348, 2019.
ISNAD	Beşkirli, Mehmet vd. "Modified Gravitational Search Algorithm for Energy Demand Estimation of Turkey". Bitlis Eren Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Dergisi 8/4 (2019), 1338-1348.