Empirical Analysis of Weak Form Efficiency Evidence from The Housing Market in Turkey: Macroeconomic Glance
Yıl: 2021 Cilt: 6 Sayı: 14 Sayfa Aralığı: 130 - 141 Metin Dili: İngilizce DOI: 10.25204/iktisad.855543 İndeks Tarihi: 25-06-2021
Empirical Analysis of Weak Form Efficiency Evidence from The Housing Market in Turkey: Macroeconomic Glance
Öz: The aim of this study is to look for an answer to the question of “Is it possible to discuss the existence ofan efficient market for the housing market in Turkey?”. It was observed that relatively low housing(mortgage) interest rates were accompanied by price rigidity. Accordingly, in the formation of thehousing market definition from the Central Bank (CBRT) database; an empirical analysis was madeusing the Residential Property Price Index for New Dwellings (NRPPI), the Residential Property PriceIndex for Existing Dwellings (ERPPI), the Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) and the HedonicHouse Price Index (HHPI). The data range for the first three indices is between 1/2010 and 1/2020.Hedonic housing price index data range is between 1/2011 and 1/2020. Unit root tests were used to testthe Random Walk Theory, which shows the characteristic condition of the housing market. The resultsfrom the study show that above average sustainable returns cannot be obtained from the housing market,as a result the market is poorly efficient. At the same time the housing market in Turkey, the rigidity ofprices found along with excess supply situation is worrisome. Therefore, it is necessary to prevent allkinds of manipulative news that may occur in the housing market by the regulatory and supervisoryinstitutions.
Anahtar Kelime: Türkiye Konut Piyasasında Zayıf Formda Etkinlik Analizi: Makroekonomik Bakış
Öz: Bu çalışmanın amacı Türkiye’de Konut piyasasında etkin bir piyasanın varlığından söz edilebilir mi?” sorusuna cevap aramaktır. Türkiye ekonomisinin son 5 yılında gayrimenkul sektörü önemli bir yatırım aracı olarak değerlendirilmiş, Nispeten düşük konut (mortgage) faiz oranlarının beraberinde fiyat katılığını da yaşandığı görülmüştür. Amacın, farkında olmadan konut sektörünü verimli bir pazara dönüştürmek olduğu bilinse de etkin piyasanın durumu cevaplanmalıdır. Bu doğrultuda Merkez Bankası veri tabanından konut piyasası kavramının oluşumunda arz-talep pazarını temsil eden yeni konut fiyat endeksi (YKF), yeni olmayan konut fiyat endeksi (YOKF), konut fiyat endeksi (KFE) ve hedonik konut fiyat endeksi (HKFE) kullanılarak ampirik bir analiz yapılmıştır. İlk üç endeks için veri aralığı 1/2010 ile 1/2020 arasındadır. Hedonik konut fiyat endeksi veri aralığı ise 1/2011 ile 1/2020 arasındadır. Konut piyasasının özel durumunu gösteren Rastlantısal Yürüyüş Kuramını test etmek için birim kök testleri kullanılmıştır. Çalışmadan elde edilen sonuçlar, konut piyasasından ortalamanın üzerinde sürdürülebilir getiri elde edilemeyeceğini, yani piyasanın zayıf bir şekilde verimli olduğunu göstermektedir. Aynı zamanda Türkiye konut piyasasında, arz fazlası ile birlikte bulunan fiyat katılığı, düşündürücü bir durumdur. Bu sebeple, konut piyasasında oluşabilecek her türlü manipülatif haberin düzenleyici ve denetleyici kurumlar tarafından engellenmesi gerekmektedir.
Anahtar Kelime: Belge Türü: Makale Makale Türü: Araştırma Makalesi Erişim Türü: Erişime Açık
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| APA | CANAKCI M (2021). Empirical Analysis of Weak Form Efficiency Evidence from The Housing Market in Turkey: Macroeconomic Glance. , 130 - 141. 10.25204/iktisad.855543 |
| Chicago | CANAKCI Mehmet Empirical Analysis of Weak Form Efficiency Evidence from The Housing Market in Turkey: Macroeconomic Glance. (2021): 130 - 141. 10.25204/iktisad.855543 |
| MLA | CANAKCI Mehmet Empirical Analysis of Weak Form Efficiency Evidence from The Housing Market in Turkey: Macroeconomic Glance. , 2021, ss.130 - 141. 10.25204/iktisad.855543 |
| AMA | CANAKCI M Empirical Analysis of Weak Form Efficiency Evidence from The Housing Market in Turkey: Macroeconomic Glance. . 2021; 130 - 141. 10.25204/iktisad.855543 |
| Vancouver | CANAKCI M Empirical Analysis of Weak Form Efficiency Evidence from The Housing Market in Turkey: Macroeconomic Glance. . 2021; 130 - 141. 10.25204/iktisad.855543 |
| IEEE | CANAKCI M "Empirical Analysis of Weak Form Efficiency Evidence from The Housing Market in Turkey: Macroeconomic Glance." , ss.130 - 141, 2021. 10.25204/iktisad.855543 |
| ISNAD | CANAKCI, Mehmet. "Empirical Analysis of Weak Form Efficiency Evidence from The Housing Market in Turkey: Macroeconomic Glance". (2021), 130-141. https://doi.org/10.25204/iktisad.855543 |
| APA | CANAKCI M (2021). Empirical Analysis of Weak Form Efficiency Evidence from The Housing Market in Turkey: Macroeconomic Glance. İktisadi İdari ve Siyasal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 6(14), 130 - 141. 10.25204/iktisad.855543 |
| Chicago | CANAKCI Mehmet Empirical Analysis of Weak Form Efficiency Evidence from The Housing Market in Turkey: Macroeconomic Glance. İktisadi İdari ve Siyasal Araştırmalar Dergisi 6, no.14 (2021): 130 - 141. 10.25204/iktisad.855543 |
| MLA | CANAKCI Mehmet Empirical Analysis of Weak Form Efficiency Evidence from The Housing Market in Turkey: Macroeconomic Glance. İktisadi İdari ve Siyasal Araştırmalar Dergisi, vol.6, no.14, 2021, ss.130 - 141. 10.25204/iktisad.855543 |
| AMA | CANAKCI M Empirical Analysis of Weak Form Efficiency Evidence from The Housing Market in Turkey: Macroeconomic Glance. İktisadi İdari ve Siyasal Araştırmalar Dergisi. 2021; 6(14): 130 - 141. 10.25204/iktisad.855543 |
| Vancouver | CANAKCI M Empirical Analysis of Weak Form Efficiency Evidence from The Housing Market in Turkey: Macroeconomic Glance. İktisadi İdari ve Siyasal Araştırmalar Dergisi. 2021; 6(14): 130 - 141. 10.25204/iktisad.855543 |
| IEEE | CANAKCI M "Empirical Analysis of Weak Form Efficiency Evidence from The Housing Market in Turkey: Macroeconomic Glance." İktisadi İdari ve Siyasal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 6, ss.130 - 141, 2021. 10.25204/iktisad.855543 |
| ISNAD | CANAKCI, Mehmet. "Empirical Analysis of Weak Form Efficiency Evidence from The Housing Market in Turkey: Macroeconomic Glance". İktisadi İdari ve Siyasal Araştırmalar Dergisi 6/14 (2021), 130-141. https://doi.org/10.25204/iktisad.855543 |
