Yıl: 2021 Cilt: 13 Sayı: 24 Sayfa Aralığı: 129 - 142 Metin Dili: Türkçe DOI: 10.14784/marufacd.880619 İndeks Tarihi: 29-07-2022

ADAPTİF PİYASA HİPOTEZİNİN ASYA – PASİFİK ÜLKELERİNDE TEST EDİLMESİ

Öz:
Bu çalışma, Asya Pasifik ülkelerinde Adaptif Piyasa Hipotezinin geçerliliğini araştırmayı amaçlamaktadır. Bu amaçla, 31 Aralık 1992'den 31 Ocak 2020'ye kadar olan aylık dönem, Otomatik Portmanteau Q testi, Genelleştirilmiş Spektral test ve Wild-Bootstrap Otomatik Varyans Oran testi kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Ayrıca, getirilerin zamana bağlı olarak tahmin edilebilirliği kayan pencereler yaklaşımı kullanılarak incelenmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular, ülke borsalarının Adaptif Piyasa Hipotezini doğruladığını göstermektedir.
Anahtar Kelime:

TESTING THE ADAPTIVE MARKET HYPOTHESIS IN ASIA-PACIFIC COUNTRIES

Öz:
This study aims to investigate the validity of the Adaptive Market Hypothesis in Asia Pacific countries. For this purpose, the monthly period from December 31, 1992 to January 31, 2020 are analyzed using Automatic Portmanteau Q test, Generalized Spectral test and Wild-bootstrapped Automatic Variance Ratio test. Furthermore, the rolling window approach is used to examine whether the time varying returns are predictable. The findings show that the country’s stock markets confirm the Adaptive Market Hypothesis.
Anahtar Kelime:

Belge Türü: Makale Makale Türü: Araştırma Makalesi Erişim Türü: Erişime Açık
  • ADARAMOLA, Anthony Olugbenga ve Kehinde Oladeji ADEKANMBI; (2020), “Day-of-the-week effect in Nigerian Stock exchange: Adaptive market hypothesis approach”
  • AL-KHAZALI, Osamah ve Ali MIRZAEI; (2017), “Stock market anomalies, market efficiency and the adaptive market hypothesis: Evidence from Islamic stock indices”, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 51, 190–208.
  • ALMAIL, Ali ve Fahad ALMUDHAF; (2017), “Adaptive Market Hypothesis: Evidence from three centuries of UK data”, Economics and Business Letters, 6(2), 48-53.
  • BARBERIS, Nicholas ve Richard THALER; (2003), “A survey of behavioral finance”, Handbook of the Economics of Finance, 1, 1053–1128.
  • BOBOC, Ioana-Andreea ve Mihai-Cristian DINICĂ; (2013), “An algorithm for testing the efficient market hypothesis”, PloS one, 8(10).
  • BORGES, Maria Rosa; (2010), “Efficient market hypothesis in European stock markets”, The European Journal of Finance, 16(7), 711–726.
  • BOX, George E. P. ve David A. PIERCE; (1970), “Distribution of Residual Autocorrelations in Autoregressive-Integrated Moving Average Time Series Models”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 65(332), 1509-1526. doi:10.2307/2284333
  • CHARLES, Amélie., Olivier DARNÉ ve Jessica FOUİLLOUX; (2011), “Testing the martingale difference hypothesis in CO2 emission allowances”, Economic Modelling, 28(1), 27-35. doi: 10.1016/j.econmod.2010.10.003
  • CHOI, In; (1999), “Testing the random walk hypothesis for real exchange rates”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 14(3), 293-308.
  • CHU, Jeffrey., Yuanyuan ZHANG ve Stephen CHAN; (2019), “The adaptive market hypothesis in the high frequency cryptocurrency market”, International Review of Financial Analysis, 64, 221–231.
  • CORONADO RAMÍREZ, Semei., Pedro Luis CELSO ARELLANO ve Omar ROJAS; (2015), “Adaptive market efficiency of agricultural commodity futures contracts”, Contaduría y Administración, 60(2), 389-401. doi:10.1016/S0186-1042(15)30006-1
  • DOCKERY, Everton ve Manolis G. KAVUSSANOS; (1996), “Testing the efficient market hypothesis using panel data, with application to the Athens stock market”, Applied Economics Letters, 3(2), 121–123.
  • ESCANCIANO, J. Carlos ve Ignacio N. LOBATO; (2009), “An automatic Portmanteau test for serial correlation”, Journal of Econometrics, Recent Advances in Time Series Analysis: A Volume Honouring Peter M. Robinson, 151(2), 140-149. doi: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2009.03.001
  • ESCANCIANO, J. Carlos ve Carlos VELASCO; (2006), “Generalized spectral tests for the martingale difference hypothesis”, Journal of Econometrics, 134(1), 151-185. doi: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2005.06.019
  • FAMA, Eugene; (1970), “Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work”, The Journal of Finance, 25(2), 383-417. doi:10.2307/2325486
  • FRENNBERG, Per ve Björn HANSSON; (1993), “Testing the random walk hypothesis on Swedish stock prices: 1919–1990”, Journal of Banking & Finance, 17(1), 175–191.
  • GHAZANI, Majid Mirzaee ve Mansour Khalili ARAGHI; (2014), “Evaluation of the adaptive market hypothesis as an evolutionary perspective on market efficiency: Evidence from the Tehran stock exchange”, Research in International Business and Finance, 32, 50–59.
  • GHAZANI, Majid Mirzaee ve Seyed Babak EBRAHİMI; (2019), “Testing the adaptive market hypothesis as an evolutionary perspective on market efficiency: Evidence from the crude oil prices”, Finance Research Letters, 30, 60–68.
  • GÖZBAŞI, Onur., İlhan KÜÇÜKKAPLAN ve Şaban NAZLIOĞLU; (2014), “Re-examining the Turkish stock market efficiency: Evidence from nonlinear unit root tests”, Economic Modelling, 38, 381-384. doi: 10.1016/j.econmod.2014.01.021
  • GYAMFI, Emmanuel Numapau; (2018), “Adaptive Market Hypothesis: Evidence from the Ghanaian Stock Market”, Journal of African Business, 19(2), 195-209. doi:10.1080/15228916.2018.1392838
  • HAMID, Kashif, Muhammad Tahir SULEMAN, Syed Zulfiqar ALI SHAH, Imdad AKASH ve Rana SHAHID; (2017), “Testing the weak form of efficient market hypothesis: Empirical evidence from Asia-Pacific markets.”, International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, Issue 58, 121-133.
  • HIREMATH, Gourishankar S. ve Jyoti KUMARI; (2014), “Stock returns predictability and the adaptive market hypothesis in emerging markets: Evidence from India”, SpringerPlus, 3(1), 428.
  • HIREMATH, Gourishankar S. ve Seema NARAYAN; (2016), “Testing the adaptive market hypothesis and its determinants for the Indian stock markets”, Finance Research Letters, 19, 173–180.
  • KAYANI, Sehrish, Usman AYUB ve Imran Abbas JADOON; (2019), “Adaptive Market Hypothesis and Artificial Neural Networks: Evidence from Pakistan”, Global Regional Review, Vol. IV, No. II.
  • KHUNTIA, Sashikanta ve J. K. PATTANAYAK; (2018), “Adaptive market hypothesis and evolving predictability of bitcoin”, Economics Letters, 167, 26–28.
  • KIM, Jae H; (2009), “Automatic variance ratio test under conditional heteroskedasticity”, Finance Research Letters, 6(3), 179-185. doi: 10.1016/j.frl.2009.04.003
  • KUMAR, Dilip; (2018), “Market Efficiency in Indian Exchange Rates: Adaptive Market Hypothesis”, Theoretical Economics Letters, 8(9), 1582–1598.
  • LO, Andrew W; (2004), “The adaptive markets hypothesis”, The Journal of Portfolio Management, 30(5), 15–29.
  • LO, Andrew W; (2005), “Reconciling efficient markets with behavioral finance: The adaptive markets hypothesis”, Journal of investment consulting, 7(2), 21–44.
  • LO, Andrew W; (2012), “Adaptive markets and the new world order (corrected May 2012)”, Financial Analysts Journal, 68(2), 18–29.
  • LO, Andrew W. ve A. Craig MacKinlay; (1988), “Stock Market Prices Do Not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test”, The Review of Financial Studies, 1(1), 41-66. doi:10.1093/rfs/1.1.41
  • LOBATO, Ignacio, John C. NANKERVIS ve N. E. SAVIN; (2001), “Testing for Autocorrelation Using a Modified Box-Pierce Q Test”, International Economic Review, 42(1), 187-205.
  • MALKIEL, Burton G.; (2003), “The efficient market hypothesis and its critics”, Journal of economic perspectives, 17(1), 59–82.
  • MAMMEN, Enno; (1993), “Bootstrap and Wild Bootstrap for High Dimensional Linear Models”, The Annals of Statistics, 21(1), 255-285.
  • MLAMBO, Chipo ve Nicholas BIEKPE; (2007), “The efficient market hypothesis: Evidence from ten African stock markets”, Investment Analysts Journal, 36(66), 5–17.
  • MUNIR, Qaiser ve Kasim MANSUR; (2009), “Is Malaysian stock market efficient? Evidence from threshold unit root tests”, Economics Bulletin, 29(2), 1359–1370.
  • NARAYAN, Paresh Kumar ve Russell SMYTH; (2004), “Is South Korea’s stock market efficient?”, Applied Economics Letters, 11(11), 707–710.
  • NEELY, Christopher J., Paul A., WELLER, ve Joshua M. ULRICH; (2009), “The Adaptive Markets Hypothesis: Evidence from the Foreign Exchange Market”, The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 44(2), 467-488.
  • NGUYEN, Chu V. ve Muhammad Mahboob ALI; (2011), “Testing the weak efficient market hypothesis: Using Bangladeshi panel data”, Banks & bank systems, (6, Iss. 1), 11–15. NGUYEN, Chu V., Chang CHIA-HAN ve Thai D. NGUYEN; (2012) “Testing the Weak-Form Efficient Market Hypothesis: Using Panel Data from the Emerging Taiwan Stock Market”, International Journal of Business and Social Science, 3(18).
  • NODA, Akihiko; (2016), “A test of the adaptive market hypothesis using a time-varying AR model in Japan”, Finance Research Letters, 17, 66-71. doi: 10.1016/j.frl.2016.01.004
  • ÖZDEMİR, Zeynel Abidin; (2008), “Efficient market hypothesis: Evidence from a small open-economy”, Applied Economics, 40(5), 633–641.
  • RITTER, Jay R.; (2003), “Behavioral finance”, Pacific-Basin finance journal, 11(4), 429–437.
  • ROSINI, Lucrezia ve Vijay SHENAI; (2020), “Stock returns and calendar anomalies on the London Stock Exchange in the dynamic perspective of the Adaptive Market Hypothesis: A study of FTSE100 & FTSE250 indices over a ten year period.”, Quantitative Finance and Economics, 4(1), 121. doi:10.3934/QFE.2020006
  • SHILLER, Robert J.; (2003), “From Efficient Markets Theory to Behavioral Finance”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 17(1), 83-104. doi:10.1257/089533003321164967
  • TODEA, Alexandru., Maria ULICI, ve Simona SILAGHI; (2009), “Adaptive Markets Hypothesis: Evidence From Asia-Pacific Financial Markets”, The Review of Finance and Banking, 1(1), 7-13.
  • URQUHART, Andrew ve Robert HUDSON; (2013), “Efficient or adaptive markets? Evidence from major stock markets using very long run historic data”, International Review of Financial Analysis, 28, 130-142. doi: 10.1016/j.irfa.2013.03.005
  • URQUHART, Andrew ve Frank MCGROARTY; (2014), “Calendar effects, market conditions and the Adaptive Market Hypothesis: Evidence from long-run U.S. data”, International Review of Financial Analysis, 35, 154-166. doi: 10.1016/j.irfa.2014.08.003
  • URQUHART, Andrew ve Frank MCGROARTY; (2016), “Are stock markets really efficient? Evidence of the adaptive market hypothesis”, International Review of Financial Analysis, 47, 39-49. doi: 10.1016/j.irfa.2016.06.011
  • XIONG, Xiong., Yongqiang MENG., Xiao LI ve Dehua SHEN; (2019), “An empirical analysis of the Adaptive Market Hypothesis with calendar effects: Evidence from China.”, Finance Research Letters, 31. doi: 10.1016/j.frl.2018.11.020
  • ZAFAR, SM Tariq; (2012), “A systematic study to test the efficient market hypothesis on BSE listed companies before recession.”, International Journal of Management and Social Sciences Research, 1(1), 37–48.
APA Gemici E (2021). ADAPTİF PİYASA HİPOTEZİNİN ASYA – PASİFİK ÜLKELERİNDE TEST EDİLMESİ. , 129 - 142. 10.14784/marufacd.880619
Chicago Gemici Eray ADAPTİF PİYASA HİPOTEZİNİN ASYA – PASİFİK ÜLKELERİNDE TEST EDİLMESİ. (2021): 129 - 142. 10.14784/marufacd.880619
MLA Gemici Eray ADAPTİF PİYASA HİPOTEZİNİN ASYA – PASİFİK ÜLKELERİNDE TEST EDİLMESİ. , 2021, ss.129 - 142. 10.14784/marufacd.880619
AMA Gemici E ADAPTİF PİYASA HİPOTEZİNİN ASYA – PASİFİK ÜLKELERİNDE TEST EDİLMESİ. . 2021; 129 - 142. 10.14784/marufacd.880619
Vancouver Gemici E ADAPTİF PİYASA HİPOTEZİNİN ASYA – PASİFİK ÜLKELERİNDE TEST EDİLMESİ. . 2021; 129 - 142. 10.14784/marufacd.880619
IEEE Gemici E "ADAPTİF PİYASA HİPOTEZİNİN ASYA – PASİFİK ÜLKELERİNDE TEST EDİLMESİ." , ss.129 - 142, 2021. 10.14784/marufacd.880619
ISNAD Gemici, Eray. "ADAPTİF PİYASA HİPOTEZİNİN ASYA – PASİFİK ÜLKELERİNDE TEST EDİLMESİ". (2021), 129-142. https://doi.org/10.14784/marufacd.880619
APA Gemici E (2021). ADAPTİF PİYASA HİPOTEZİNİN ASYA – PASİFİK ÜLKELERİNDE TEST EDİLMESİ. Finansal Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi, 13(24), 129 - 142. 10.14784/marufacd.880619
Chicago Gemici Eray ADAPTİF PİYASA HİPOTEZİNİN ASYA – PASİFİK ÜLKELERİNDE TEST EDİLMESİ. Finansal Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi 13, no.24 (2021): 129 - 142. 10.14784/marufacd.880619
MLA Gemici Eray ADAPTİF PİYASA HİPOTEZİNİN ASYA – PASİFİK ÜLKELERİNDE TEST EDİLMESİ. Finansal Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi, vol.13, no.24, 2021, ss.129 - 142. 10.14784/marufacd.880619
AMA Gemici E ADAPTİF PİYASA HİPOTEZİNİN ASYA – PASİFİK ÜLKELERİNDE TEST EDİLMESİ. Finansal Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi. 2021; 13(24): 129 - 142. 10.14784/marufacd.880619
Vancouver Gemici E ADAPTİF PİYASA HİPOTEZİNİN ASYA – PASİFİK ÜLKELERİNDE TEST EDİLMESİ. Finansal Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi. 2021; 13(24): 129 - 142. 10.14784/marufacd.880619
IEEE Gemici E "ADAPTİF PİYASA HİPOTEZİNİN ASYA – PASİFİK ÜLKELERİNDE TEST EDİLMESİ." Finansal Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi, 13, ss.129 - 142, 2021. 10.14784/marufacd.880619
ISNAD Gemici, Eray. "ADAPTİF PİYASA HİPOTEZİNİN ASYA – PASİFİK ÜLKELERİNDE TEST EDİLMESİ". Finansal Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi 13/24 (2021), 129-142. https://doi.org/10.14784/marufacd.880619