A Hidden Relation Between Public Debt and Confidence

Aytaç, Deniz

A Hidden Relation Between Public Debt and Confidence

Deniz AYTAÇ (Hitit Üniversitesi, İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi, Maliye Bölümü, Çorum, Türkiye)

Journal of emerging economies and policy (Online)

2 0

Yıl: 2021 Cilt: 6 Sayı: 1 Sayfa Aralığı: 106 - 113 Metin Dili: İngilizce İndeks Tarihi: 29-07-2022

A Hidden Relation Between Public Debt and Confidence

Öz:

In this study, the relationship between the presence of these works in the public economy, an important indicator in terms of public debt with confidence, is intended to be tested specific to Turkey where public debt stock was in an upward trend after 2006. The existence of a linear and non-linear relationship between consumer confidence index and real sector confidence index and public debt stock was examined within the scope of the implicit cointegration. The cumulative negative shocks of the public debt stock and the cumulative positive shocks of the real sector confidence index act together. Similarly, it was observed that the cumulative negative shocks of the public debt stock and the cumulative positive shocks of the consumer confidence index moved together

Anahtar Kelime: Public Dept Consumer Confidence Real Sector Confidence Hidden Cointegration

Kamu Borcu ve Güven Arasındaki Saklı İlişki

Öz:

Bu çalışmada kamu ekonomisi açısından önemli bir gösterge olan kamu borç stoku ile güven arasındaki ilişkinin varlığı, kamu borç stokunun 2006 yılından sonra yükseliş eğilimi gösterdiği Türkiye özelinde test edilmesi amaçlanmıştır. Tüketici güven endeksi ve reel kesim güven endeksi ile kamu borç stoku arasındaki doğrusal olan ve olmayan nedensellik ilişkisinin varlığı saklı eşbütünleşme modelleri kapsamında incelenmiştir. Kamu borç stokunun birikimli negatif şokları ile reel sektör güven endeksinin birikimli pozitif şokları birlikte hareket etmektedir. Benzer şekilde kamu borç stokunun birikimli negatif şokları ile tüketici güven endeksinin birikimli pozitif şoklarının birlikte hareket ettiği gözlenmiştir.

Anahtar Kelime:

Belge Türü: Makale Makale Türü: Araştırma Makalesi Erişim Türü: Erişime Açık

Abaidoo, R. (2012). Macroeconomic uncertainty, consumer sentiments, consumption expenditures and US fixed private investment growth. Journal of Applied Business Research, 28(1), 133-144.
Acemoglu, D., & Scott, A. (1994). Consumer confidence and rational expectations: are agents beliefs consistent with the theory?. The Economic Journal, 104(422), 1-19.
Afshar, T. (2007). Stock return, consumer confidence, purchasing manager’s index and economic fluctuations. Journal of Business and Economics Research, 5(8), 97-106.
Akhtar, S., Faff, R., & Oliver, D. (2011). The asymmetric impact of consumer sentiment announcements on Australian foreign exchange rates. Australian Journal of Management, 36(3), 387-403. doi: http://10.1177/0312896211410723
Bachman, R., & Sims, E. (2012). Confidence and the transmission of government spending shocks. Journal of Monetary Economics, 50(3), 235-249.
Calvo, G. (1988). Sevicing the public dept: The role of expectations. The American Economic Review, 78(4), 647-661.
Christ, P. K., & Bremmer, D. S. (2003). The relationship between consumer sentiment and stock prices. 78. Annual Conference of the Western Economics Association International. Denver: Colorado.
Dees, S., & Brinca, P. (2011). Consumer confidence as a predictor of consumption spending: Evidence for the United States and the Euro Area. European Central Bank, 1349.
Fisher, L. K., & Statman, M. (2002). Consumer confidence and stock returns. Santa Clara University Department of Finance, Working Paper No. 02-02 (2002).
Fukuyama, F. (2001). Social capital, civil society and development. Third World Quarterly, 22(1), 7– 20.
Galesi, A., & Lombardi, M. J. (2009). External shocks and international inflation linkages: a global VAR analysis. European Central Bank, Working paper No. 1062.
Granger, C., & Yoon, G. (2002). Hidden cointegration. Working Paper, University of California, San Diego.
Hatemi-J, A., & Irandoust, M. (2012). Asymmetric interaction between government spending and terms of trade volatility: New evidence from hidden cointegration technique. Journal of Economic Studies, 39( 3), 368-378.
Islam, T. U., & Mümtaz, M. N. (2016). Consumer confidence index and economic growth: An empirical analysis of EU countries. EuroEconomica. 2(35), 17-22.
Jansen, W. J., & Nahuis, N. J. (2003). The stock market and consumer confidence: European evidence. Economics Letters, 79, 89-98.
Kantona, G. (1960). The powerful consumer: psychological studies of the American economy. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Kantona, G. (1968). Consumer behavior: Theory and findings on expectations and aspirations. American Economic Review, 58(2), 19-30.
King, R. G., & Kurmann, A. (2002). Expectations and the term structure of interest rates: evidence and implications. Economic Quarterly, 88(4), 1-17.
Knack, S., & Keefer, P. (1997). Does social capital have an economic payoff? A cross country investigation. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 112(4), 1251-1288.
Ludvigson, S. C. (2004). Consumer confidence and consumer spending. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18(2), 29-50.
Madala, G. S., & Kim, I. (1998). Unit root, cointegration and structural change. UK: Cambridge University Press.
Matsusaka, J. G., & Sbordone, A. M. (1995). Consumer confidence and economic fluctuations. Economic Inquiry, 33(2), 296-318.
Mermod, A.Y., Çelik, S., & Güneş, H. (2010). Frequency domain analysis of consumer confidence, industrial production and retail sales for selected European countries. 6th colloquium on modern tools for business cycle analysis. The Lessons from the Global Economic Crisis. Luxembourg: Jointly Organized by Eurostat and the European University Institute (Florence, Italy), 26-29.
Nelson, C. R., & Plosser, C. I. (1982). Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series: some evidence and Implications. Journal of Monetary Economics, 10(2), 139-162.
OECD (2013). Trust in government, policy effectiveness and the governance agenda. In: Government at a Glance 2013.
Otoo, M. W. (1999). Consumer sentiment and the stock market. board of governors of the federal reserve system. (Accessed on 20/01/2021). https://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/FEDS/1999/199960/199960pap.pdf Phillips, P.,
Saat, M. (2020). Public debt management reforms in Turkey. In: Tekin Akdemir & Halis Kıral (Ed.), Public financial management reforms in Turkey: Progress and challenges (pp.21-39). Springer.
Sergeant, K. (2011). Consumer confidence and economic growth- a case study of Trinidad & Tobago. 4th International Conference on Business, Banking & Finance. Trinidad: Halton Trinidad & Conference Center Port of Spain.
Spreng, R., & Page, A. (2001). The impact of confidence in expectatons on consumer satisfaction. Psychology and Marketing, 18(11), 1187-1204.
TCMB (2020). İktisadi yönelim istatistikleri ve reel kesim güven endeksi. (Accessed on 10/06/2020). https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/422e34cc-7d1e-4e78-aa36-ad77985c5140/IYA-Metaveri.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=ROOTWORKSPACE-422e3
TR Ministry of Treasury and Finance (2020). Statistics: public finance. (Accessed on 10/06/2020), https://www.hmb.gov.tr/kamu-finansmani-istatistikleri
Utaka, A. (2003). Confidence and the real economy-the Japanese case. Applied Economics, 35(3), 337-342.
Zagórski, K., & McDonnell, J. S. (1995). Consumer confidence indexes as social indicators. Social Indicators Research, 36(3), 227-246.
Zak, P. J., & Knack, S. (2001). Trust and growth. The Economic Journal, 111(470), 295-321.

APA	Aytaç D (2021). A Hidden Relation Between Public Debt and Confidence. , 106 - 113.
Chicago	Aytaç Deniz A Hidden Relation Between Public Debt and Confidence. (2021): 106 - 113.
MLA	Aytaç Deniz A Hidden Relation Between Public Debt and Confidence. , 2021, ss.106 - 113.
AMA	Aytaç D A Hidden Relation Between Public Debt and Confidence. . 2021; 106 - 113.
Vancouver	Aytaç D A Hidden Relation Between Public Debt and Confidence. . 2021; 106 - 113.
IEEE	Aytaç D "A Hidden Relation Between Public Debt and Confidence." , ss.106 - 113, 2021.
ISNAD	Aytaç, Deniz. "A Hidden Relation Between Public Debt and Confidence". (2021), 106-113.

APA	Aytaç D (2021). A Hidden Relation Between Public Debt and Confidence. Journal of emerging economies and policy (Online), 6(1), 106 - 113.
Chicago	Aytaç Deniz A Hidden Relation Between Public Debt and Confidence. Journal of emerging economies and policy (Online) 6, no.1 (2021): 106 - 113.
MLA	Aytaç Deniz A Hidden Relation Between Public Debt and Confidence. Journal of emerging economies and policy (Online), vol.6, no.1, 2021, ss.106 - 113.
AMA	Aytaç D A Hidden Relation Between Public Debt and Confidence. Journal of emerging economies and policy (Online). 2021; 6(1): 106 - 113.
Vancouver	Aytaç D A Hidden Relation Between Public Debt and Confidence. Journal of emerging economies and policy (Online). 2021; 6(1): 106 - 113.
IEEE	Aytaç D "A Hidden Relation Between Public Debt and Confidence." Journal of emerging economies and policy (Online), 6, ss.106 - 113, 2021.
ISNAD	Aytaç, Deniz. "A Hidden Relation Between Public Debt and Confidence". Journal of emerging economies and policy (Online) 6/1 (2021), 106-113.