Yıl: 2021 Cilt: 0 Sayı: 31 Sayfa Aralığı: 129 - 144 Metin Dili: İngilizce DOI: 10.18092/ulikidince.827340 İndeks Tarihi: 08-10-2021

A TIME-VARYING ANALYSIS OF THE PUBLIC DEBT SUSTAINABILITY IN TURKEY WITH FLEXIBLE LEAST SQUARES TECHNIQUE

Öz:
This paper gauges the sustainability of public debt in Turkey from a time-varying perspective. The time-varyingestimation techniques exhibit the whole portrait of intertemporal variations in the sustainability of publicdebt. We estimated a fiscal reaction function using flexible least squares method to reap this benefit of timevarying models. This method is a practical alternative to the other approaches in the literature. The resultssuggest that public debt sustainability has been established in Turkey through a transformation in the early2000s, but thereafter the fiscal performance has waned gradually. In recent years, the fiscal reactionparameter has hit negative levels after some 20 years of sturdiness. This finding indicates that the public debtis likely to become unsustainable should no necessary measures are promptly implemented. Nevertheless,the Covid – 19 pandemic appears to be an unexpected and important source of an impediment for thegovernment to achieve short-run stabilisation goals by skyrocketing social expenditures and transfers.
Anahtar Kelime:

ESNEK EN KÜÇÜK KARELER YÖNTEMİ İLE TÜRKİYE’DEKİ KAMU BORCU SÜRDÜRÜLEBİLİRLİĞİNİN DİNAMİK ANALİZİ

Öz:
Bu makale, zamanla değişen (time-varying) bir perspektifte Türkiye'deki kamu borcunun sürdürülebilirliğini değerlendirmektedir. Zamanla değişen katsayılı tahminleme teknikleri, kamu borcunun sürdürülebilirliğindeki zamanlar arası değişimlerin bütün çerçevesini sergileme özelliğine sahiptir. Bu çalışma, zamanla değişen katsayılı modellerin avantajlarından yararlanmak için, esnek en küçük kareler yöntemini kullanarak bir mali tepki fonksiyonu tahminlemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Bu yöntem literatürdeki diğer modellere pratik bir alternatif olarak ön plana çıkmaktadır. Bulgular, kamu borçlarının sürdürülebilirliğinin 2000'li yılların başlarındaki bir dönüşümle sağlandığını, ancak daha sonra mali performansın kademeli olarak azaldığını göstermektedir. Son yıllarda, mali tepki parametresinin yaklaşık 20 yıllık güçlü bir seyrin ardından negatif seviyelere ulaştığı gözlemlenmektedir. Bu bulgu, gerekli tedbirlerin zamanında uygulanmaması durumunda kamu borcunun sürdürülemez hale gelebileceğini göstermektedir. Ancak, son dönemde ortaya çıkan Covid – 19 pandemisinin bu tür düzeltici politikaların kısa vadede uygulanmasını önleyen bir engel olarak ortaya çıktığı görülmektedir. Hızla artan sosyal harcamalar ve transferler kısa vadedeki toparlanmanın gerçekleşmesini önleyici rol oynayacaktır.
Anahtar Kelime:

Belge Türü: Makale Makale Türü: Araştırma Makalesi Erişim Türü: Erişime Açık
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APA CAN C (2021). A TIME-VARYING ANALYSIS OF THE PUBLIC DEBT SUSTAINABILITY IN TURKEY WITH FLEXIBLE LEAST SQUARES TECHNIQUE. , 129 - 144. 10.18092/ulikidince.827340
Chicago CAN CANSIN KEMAL A TIME-VARYING ANALYSIS OF THE PUBLIC DEBT SUSTAINABILITY IN TURKEY WITH FLEXIBLE LEAST SQUARES TECHNIQUE. (2021): 129 - 144. 10.18092/ulikidince.827340
MLA CAN CANSIN KEMAL A TIME-VARYING ANALYSIS OF THE PUBLIC DEBT SUSTAINABILITY IN TURKEY WITH FLEXIBLE LEAST SQUARES TECHNIQUE. , 2021, ss.129 - 144. 10.18092/ulikidince.827340
AMA CAN C A TIME-VARYING ANALYSIS OF THE PUBLIC DEBT SUSTAINABILITY IN TURKEY WITH FLEXIBLE LEAST SQUARES TECHNIQUE. . 2021; 129 - 144. 10.18092/ulikidince.827340
Vancouver CAN C A TIME-VARYING ANALYSIS OF THE PUBLIC DEBT SUSTAINABILITY IN TURKEY WITH FLEXIBLE LEAST SQUARES TECHNIQUE. . 2021; 129 - 144. 10.18092/ulikidince.827340
IEEE CAN C "A TIME-VARYING ANALYSIS OF THE PUBLIC DEBT SUSTAINABILITY IN TURKEY WITH FLEXIBLE LEAST SQUARES TECHNIQUE." , ss.129 - 144, 2021. 10.18092/ulikidince.827340
ISNAD CAN, CANSIN KEMAL. "A TIME-VARYING ANALYSIS OF THE PUBLIC DEBT SUSTAINABILITY IN TURKEY WITH FLEXIBLE LEAST SQUARES TECHNIQUE". (2021), 129-144. https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.827340
APA CAN C (2021). A TIME-VARYING ANALYSIS OF THE PUBLIC DEBT SUSTAINABILITY IN TURKEY WITH FLEXIBLE LEAST SQUARES TECHNIQUE. Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi, 0(31), 129 - 144. 10.18092/ulikidince.827340
Chicago CAN CANSIN KEMAL A TIME-VARYING ANALYSIS OF THE PUBLIC DEBT SUSTAINABILITY IN TURKEY WITH FLEXIBLE LEAST SQUARES TECHNIQUE. Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi 0, no.31 (2021): 129 - 144. 10.18092/ulikidince.827340
MLA CAN CANSIN KEMAL A TIME-VARYING ANALYSIS OF THE PUBLIC DEBT SUSTAINABILITY IN TURKEY WITH FLEXIBLE LEAST SQUARES TECHNIQUE. Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi, vol.0, no.31, 2021, ss.129 - 144. 10.18092/ulikidince.827340
AMA CAN C A TIME-VARYING ANALYSIS OF THE PUBLIC DEBT SUSTAINABILITY IN TURKEY WITH FLEXIBLE LEAST SQUARES TECHNIQUE. Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi. 2021; 0(31): 129 - 144. 10.18092/ulikidince.827340
Vancouver CAN C A TIME-VARYING ANALYSIS OF THE PUBLIC DEBT SUSTAINABILITY IN TURKEY WITH FLEXIBLE LEAST SQUARES TECHNIQUE. Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi. 2021; 0(31): 129 - 144. 10.18092/ulikidince.827340
IEEE CAN C "A TIME-VARYING ANALYSIS OF THE PUBLIC DEBT SUSTAINABILITY IN TURKEY WITH FLEXIBLE LEAST SQUARES TECHNIQUE." Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi, 0, ss.129 - 144, 2021. 10.18092/ulikidince.827340
ISNAD CAN, CANSIN KEMAL. "A TIME-VARYING ANALYSIS OF THE PUBLIC DEBT SUSTAINABILITY IN TURKEY WITH FLEXIBLE LEAST SQUARES TECHNIQUE". Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi 31 (2021), 129-144. https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.827340