Yıl: 2021 Cilt: 71 Sayı: 1 Sayfa Aralığı: 21 - 38 Metin Dili: İngilizce İndeks Tarihi: 10-11-2021

Nonlinear Relationship between Economic Growth and Tax Revenue in Turkey: Hidden Cointegration Approach

Öz:
The tax revenues, which constitute the most important incomeitem of the state, provide the necessary financing for sustainableeconomic growth in evolved countries, development efforts indeveloping economies, and form the basis of social welfare.Therefore, the relationship between economic growth and taxrevenues is significant and numerous empirical studies havebeen carried out on this subject. However, there is no studytesting the hidden cointegration. This paper aims to test thepresence of hidden cointegration between economic growthand tax revenues and intends to develop further typologies. Totest the relationship, data on the ratio of annual tax revenues/GDP between 1985-2018 in Turkey was used, and HiddenCointegration Approach developed by Granger and Yoon (2002)and crouching error correction model were applied. The analysisresults demonstrated that the tax revenues decreased acrossvariables and that there was a cointegration relationship in periodswhen the GDP increased. This manuscript is a contribution to theliterature since a different technique was performed to examinethe relationship between growth and tax revenues, and the resultsobtained will be crucial for decision-makers.
Anahtar Kelime:

Belge Türü: Makale Makale Türü: Araştırma Makalesi Erişim Türü: Erişime Açık
  • Ahmad, S., Sial, M. & Ahmad N. (2016). Taxes and economic growth: an empirical analysis of Pakistan. European Journal of Business and Social Sciences, 5(02), 16–29.
  • Akıncı, A. (2019). Türkiye’de vergi gelirlerinin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi. Finans Ekonomi ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 4(1), 100-106.
  • Andrejovská, A. & Puliková, V. (2018). Tax revenues in the context of economic determinants. Montenegrin Journal of Economics, 133. Doi:10.14254/1800-5845/2018.14-1.10
  • Basheer, M., Ahmad, A. & Hassan, S. (2019). Impact of economic and financial factors on tax revenue: evidence from the Middle East countries. Accounting, 5(2), 53-60.
  • Boğa, S. (2020). Türkiye’de vergi gelirleri ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki asimetrik ilişki: NARDL eşbütünleşme yaklaşımı. Üçüncü Sektör Sosyal Ekonomi Dergisi, 55(1), 487-507. Doi: 10.15659/3. sektor-sosyal-ekonomi.20.03.1311
  • Chigbu, E.E. & Njoku, C.O. (2015). Taxation and the Nigerian economy: (1994-2012). Management Studies and Economic Systems, 2(2), 111-128.
  • Çağlayan, E. & Saçaklı, İ. (2006). Satın alma gücü paritesinin geçerliliğinin sıfır frekansta spektrum tahmincisine dayanan birim kök testleri ile incelenmesi. İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 20(1), 122-137.
  • Çiğdem, G., Altaylar, M., Köse, T. & Yılmaz, G.G. (2020). İktisadi krizler ve tüketim eğilimi üzerine ampirik sorgulama: Türkiye’den bir eşbütünleşme örneği. In G. Çiğdem (Ed.), Multidisipliner Yaklaşımla İktisadi Kriz Olgusu Cilt:III (pp.61-103). Ankara, Turkey: Gazi Kitabevi.
  • Dackehag, M. & Hansson, Å. (2012). Taxation of income and economic growth: an empirical analysis of 25 Rich OECD countries. Lund University Department of Economics Working Paper No 6.
  • Dam, M. & Ertekin, Ş. (2018). Türkiye’de vergi gelirlerinin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisinin analizi. Vergi Raporu Dergisi, 228, 19-32.
  • Dickey, D.A. & Fuller, W.A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366), 427-431.
  • Durkaya, M. & Ceylan, S. (2006). Vergi gelirleri ve ekonomik büyüme. Maliye Dergisi, 150, 79-89
  • Easterly, W. & Rebelo, S. (1992). Marginal income tax rates and economic growth in developing countries. Policy Research Working Papers, No. 1050. Retrieved from http://documents. worldbank.org/curated/en/432391468766196026/pdf/multi-page.pdf
  • Easterly, W. & Rebelo, S. (1993). Marginal income tax rates and economic growth in developing countries. European Economic Review, 37, 409-417.
  • Easterly, W. & Rebelo, S. (1993). Fiscal policy and economic growth: an empirical investigation. Journal of Monetary Economics, 32, pp. 417-58.
  • Enders, W. (2004). Applied Econometric Time Series (2.ed.). United States of America: John Wiley & Sons.
  • Engen, S. & Skinner, J. (1992). Fiscal policy and economic growth. NBER Working Paper, 4223, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass.
  • Engle, R. & Granger, C. (1987). Cointegration and error correction representation: estimation and testing. Econometrica, 55, 251-276.
  • Fenochietto, M.R. & Pessino, M.C. (2013). Understanding Countries’ Tax Effort. International Monetary Fund, No. 13-244.
  • Ferretti, M.M.G. & Roubini, N. (1995). Growth effects of income and consumption taxes: positive and normative analysis. NBER Working Paper Series, Working Paper 5317, 1-40.
  • Furceri, D. & Karras, G. (2008). Tax changes and economic growth: empirical evidence for a panel of OECD countries. OECD ECB Public Finance Workshop Frankfurt, 1-29.
  • Gonzalo, J. & Granger, C.W. (1995). Estimation of common long-memory components in cointegrated systems. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 13, 27-35.
  • Goode, R. (1980). Limits of Taxation. Finance Development, 17(I), 11-13.
  • Göçer, İ., Mercan, M., Bulut, Ş. & Dam, M.M. (2010). Ekonomik büyüme ile vergi gelirleri arasındaki ilişki: sınır testi yaklaşımı. Dumlupınar Üniversitesi SBE Dergisi, 28, 97-110.
  • Granger, C.W. & Yoon, G. (2002). Hidden cointegration. University of California, Department of Economics Working Paper, San Diego.
  • Greenidge, K. & Drakes, L. (2009). Tax policy and macroeconomic activity in Barbados. Retrieved from http://www.centralbank.org.bb Accessed 21 Nov. 2020
  • Gujarati, D. (2015). Econometrics by example (2. ed.). London, United Kingdom: Macmillan International Higher Education.
  • Harberger, A.C. (1964). Taxation, resource allocation and welfare, in the role of direct and indirect taxes in the federal reserve system. Princeton University Press for the National Bureau of Economic Research and the Brookings Institution, Princeton, New Jersey. Retrieved from https://www.researchgate.net/ publication/268442018_Taxation_Resource_Allocation_and_Welfare Accessed 15 Dec. 2020
  • Helhel, Y.& Demir, Y. (2012) The relationship between tax revenue and economic growth in Turkey: the period of 1975-2011. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, 1(1), 32-40.
  • Karabulut, R. & Şeker, K. (2018). Belirlenmiş değişkenlerin vergi gelirleri üzerindeki etkisi: çoklu doğrusal regresyon analizi. Süleymen Demirel Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 23(3), 1049-1070.
  • Karamelikli, H. (2018). Dolaylı ve dolaysız vergilerin ekonomik aktiviteler üzerindeki simetrik ve asimetrik etkileri. Maliye ve Finans Yazıları, 110, 95-110
  • Karras, G. & Furceri, D. (2009). Taxes & growth in Europe. South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, 2, 181-204.
  • King, R.G. & Rebelo, S. (1990). Public policy and economic growth: developing neoclassical implications. Journal of Political Economy, 98(5), 126-150.
  • Knight, F.H. (1944). Diminishing returns from investment. J Polit Econ, 52(3), 26–47.
  • Koch, S.F., Schoeman, N.J. & Van Tonder, J.J. (2005). Economic growth and the structure of taxes in South Africa: 1960-2002. South African Journal of Economics, 73(2), 190-210.
  • Koester, R.B. & Kormendi, R.C. (1989). Taxation, aggregate activity and economic growth: crosscountry evidence on some supply side hypotheses. Economic Inquiry, 27, 367-387. Retrieved from https://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/handle/2027.42/35806/b1410787.0001.001 pdf?sequence=2&isAllowed=y
  • Kong, S. & Hoek, M.P. (2008). Is the growth of Chinese annual tax revenues unnatural?. Journal of Public Budgeting Accounting & Financial Management, 20(4), 554-570.
  • Lucas, R.E. (1988). On the mechanics of economic development. Journal of Monetary Economics, 22, 3-42.
  • Malthus, T. R. (1798). An essay on the principle of population. History of Economic Thought Books, McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought, number malthus1798.
  • Mangır, F. & Ertuğrul, H.M. (2012). Vergi yükü ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: 1988-2011 Türkiye örneği. Maliye Dergisi, 162, 256-265.
  • Mankiw, G., Weinzierl, M. & Yagan, D. (2009). Optimal taxation in theory and practice. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 23(4), 147-174. DOI:10.3386/w15071
  • Marsden, K. (1983). Links between taxes and economic growth. World Bank Staff Working Papers, No. 605
  • Mendoza, E., Milesi-Ferretti, G.M. & Asea, P. (1997). On the effectiveness of tax policy in altering longrun growth: Harberger’s superneutrality conjecture. Journal of Public Economics, 66, 99-126.
  • Musanga, B. (2007). Effects of taxation on economic growth (Uganda’s experience: 1987-2005). Unpublished Misc Qualitative Economics. University of Makerere.
  • Mutaşcu, M.I. & Dănuleţiu, D.C. (2011). Taxes and economic growth in Romania. A VAR approach. Annales Universitatis Apulensis Series Oeconomica, 13(1), 94-105.
  • Myles, G. (2000). Taxation and economic growth. Fiscal Studies, 21(1), 141-168. DOI:10.1111/j.1475-5890.2000.tb00583.x
  • Organ, İ. & Ergen, E. (2017). Türkiye’de vergi yükünün ekonomik büyümeye etkileri üzerine bir çalışma. Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 27, 197-207. DOI: 10.5505/ pausbed.2017.75508
  • Öztürk, Ö.F., Şaşmaz, M.Ü., Bayar, Y. & Odabaşı, H. (2019). Türkiye’de başlıca ekonomik değişkenlerin vergi gelirleri üzerindeki etkisi: çoklu doğrusal regresyon analizi. Journal of Turkish Court of Accounts / Sayistay Dergisi, 115, 37-53.
  • Padda, I.U.H. & Akram, N. (2009). The impact of tax policies on economic growth: evidence from South-Asian economies. The Pakistan Development Review, 48(4), 961-971.
  • Parasız, İ. (2008). Büyüme Teorileri (3.bs.). Bursa: Ezgi Kitabevi.
  • Phillips, P.C.B. & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335-346.
  • Piana, V. (2003). Tax Revenue, Economics Web Institute. Retrieved from http://www. economicswebinstitute.org/glossary/taxrev.htm#determinants
  • Polat, M.A. (2019). Ekonomik büyüme ile vergi gelirleri arasındaki ilişkinin incelenmesi: Türkiye
  • örneği. İnsan ve Toplum Bilimleri Araştırmaları Dergisi, 8(3), 1991-2009. Ramsey, F.P. (1928) A mathematical theory of saving. Economic Journal, 38, 543-559. http://dx.doi. org/10.2307/2224098
  • Ricardo, D. (1817). On the principles of political economy and taxation ( John Murray, London). In: Sraffa, P., Ed., The Works and Correspondence of David Ricardo, Vol. 1, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1951.
  • Romer, P.M. (1986). Increasing returns and long run growth. The Journal of Political Economy, 94(5), 1002-1037.
  • Romer, P.M. (1990). Endogenous technological change. The Journal of Political Economy, 98(5), 71-102.
  • Romer, C.D. & Romer, D.H. (2010). The macroeconomic effects of tax changes: estimates based on a new measure of fiscal shocks. American Economic Review American Economic Association, 100(3), 763-801.
  • Schumpeter, J.A. (1934). The theory of economic development: an inquiry into profits, capital, credits, interest, and the business cycle. Transaction Publishers, Piscataway.
  • Solow, R.M. (1956). A contribution to the theory of economic growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70(1), 65-94.
  • Smith, A. (1776 [1937]). An inquiry into the nature and causes of the wealth of nations. Edited by Cannan. New York: Modern Library.
  • Stoilova, D. & Patanov, N. (2012). An empirical evidence for the impact of taxation on economy growth in the European Union. Retrieved from https://dialnet.unirioja.es/descarga/ articulo/4788887.pdf
  • Swan, T.W. (1956). Economic growth and capital accumulation. The Economic Record, 32(2), 334-361.
  • Takumah, W. (2014). Cointegration and causality between tax revenue and economic growth in Ghana. International Research Journal of Marketing and Economics, 1(6), 30-44.
  • Tanzi, V. (1987). Quantitative characteristics of the tax systems of developing countries. In D. Newbery & N. Stern (Eds.), The Theory of Taxation for Developing Countries (pp 205-241). New York: Oxford University Press.
  • Tanzi, V., and Lee, H.H. (1996). Fiscal policy and long-run growth. IMF Working Papers, 1996(119). Doi. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451854121.001
  • Temiz, D. (2008). Türkiye’de vergi gelirleri ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: 1960-2006 dönemi. 2. Ulusal İktisat Kongresi, 20-22 Şubat, İzmir. Erişim Adresi https://debis.deu.edu.tr/userweb/iibf_kongre/ dosyalar/temiz.pdf. Accessed 21 Oct 2020
  • Widmalm, F. (2001). Tax Structure and Growth: Are Some Taxes Better Than Others. Public Choice, 107, 199-219.
  • Young, A. (1928). Increasing return and economic progress. Economic Journal, Vol.38.
  • Yeldan, E. (2010). İktisadi Büyüme ve Bölüşüm Teorileri. Ankara: Efil Yayınevi.
APA ÇIĞDEM G, ALTAYLAR M (2021). Nonlinear Relationship between Economic Growth and Tax Revenue in Turkey: Hidden Cointegration Approach. , 21 - 38.
Chicago ÇIĞDEM Gülgün,ALTAYLAR Merve Nonlinear Relationship between Economic Growth and Tax Revenue in Turkey: Hidden Cointegration Approach. (2021): 21 - 38.
MLA ÇIĞDEM Gülgün,ALTAYLAR Merve Nonlinear Relationship between Economic Growth and Tax Revenue in Turkey: Hidden Cointegration Approach. , 2021, ss.21 - 38.
AMA ÇIĞDEM G,ALTAYLAR M Nonlinear Relationship between Economic Growth and Tax Revenue in Turkey: Hidden Cointegration Approach. . 2021; 21 - 38.
Vancouver ÇIĞDEM G,ALTAYLAR M Nonlinear Relationship between Economic Growth and Tax Revenue in Turkey: Hidden Cointegration Approach. . 2021; 21 - 38.
IEEE ÇIĞDEM G,ALTAYLAR M "Nonlinear Relationship between Economic Growth and Tax Revenue in Turkey: Hidden Cointegration Approach." , ss.21 - 38, 2021.
ISNAD ÇIĞDEM, Gülgün - ALTAYLAR, Merve. "Nonlinear Relationship between Economic Growth and Tax Revenue in Turkey: Hidden Cointegration Approach". (2021), 21-38.
APA ÇIĞDEM G, ALTAYLAR M (2021). Nonlinear Relationship between Economic Growth and Tax Revenue in Turkey: Hidden Cointegration Approach. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi, 71(1), 21 - 38.
Chicago ÇIĞDEM Gülgün,ALTAYLAR Merve Nonlinear Relationship between Economic Growth and Tax Revenue in Turkey: Hidden Cointegration Approach. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi 71, no.1 (2021): 21 - 38.
MLA ÇIĞDEM Gülgün,ALTAYLAR Merve Nonlinear Relationship between Economic Growth and Tax Revenue in Turkey: Hidden Cointegration Approach. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi, vol.71, no.1, 2021, ss.21 - 38.
AMA ÇIĞDEM G,ALTAYLAR M Nonlinear Relationship between Economic Growth and Tax Revenue in Turkey: Hidden Cointegration Approach. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi. 2021; 71(1): 21 - 38.
Vancouver ÇIĞDEM G,ALTAYLAR M Nonlinear Relationship between Economic Growth and Tax Revenue in Turkey: Hidden Cointegration Approach. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi. 2021; 71(1): 21 - 38.
IEEE ÇIĞDEM G,ALTAYLAR M "Nonlinear Relationship between Economic Growth and Tax Revenue in Turkey: Hidden Cointegration Approach." İstanbul İktisat Dergisi, 71, ss.21 - 38, 2021.
ISNAD ÇIĞDEM, Gülgün - ALTAYLAR, Merve. "Nonlinear Relationship between Economic Growth and Tax Revenue in Turkey: Hidden Cointegration Approach". İstanbul İktisat Dergisi 71/1 (2021), 21-38.