Yıl: 2020 Cilt: 10 Sayı: 2 Sayfa Aralığı: 713 - 729 Metin Dili: İngilizce İndeks Tarihi: 12-10-2021

Testing Kaldor’s Growth Laws for Turkey: New Evidence from Symmetric and Asymmetric Causality Methods

Öz:
Nicholas Kaldor’s main contribution to economic theory was his work on the industry-basedgrowth model. Kaldor’s laws examine the relationship between the industrial sector, economicgrowth, and labor productivity. This paper aims to test the validity of Kaldor’s first and second(Kaldor-Verdoorn’s) law for Turkey covering the period of 1980-2014 by using symmetric andasymmetric causality methods. According to the results of the symmetric causality tests, Kaldor’sfirst and second laws are valid for Turkey. In this regard, industry value-added has a positive effecton growth and labor productivity in the industrial sector. The asymmetric causality test resultsindicate that Kaldor’s first law holds in Turkey; however, Kaldor-Verdoorn’s law is invalid. Inother words, while the industry sector supports economic growth, it does not contribute to laborproductivity. As a result, the findings indicate that the validity of Kaldor's laws may varydepending on the method used.
Anahtar Kelime:

Kaldor Yasalarının Türkiye için Testi: Simetrik ve Asimetrik Nedensellik Yöntemleri ile Yeni Bulgular

Öz:
Nikolas Kaldor’un iktisat teorisine temel katkısı sanayiye dayalı büyüme modelidir. Kaldor yasaları sanayi sektörü, ekonomik büyüme ve işgücü verimliliği arasındaki ilişkileri incelemektedir. Bu çalışma Türkiye için 1980-2014 döneminde Kaldor’un birinci ve ikinci (Kaldor-Verdoorn) yasasının geçerliliğini, simetrik ve asimetrik nedensellik yöntemleri kullanarak test etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Simetrik nedensellik testlerinin sonuçlarına göre Kaldor’un birinci ve ikinci yasası Türkiye için geçerlidir. Bu bağlamda sanayi sektöründe yaratılan katma değer hem ekonomik büyüme hem de sanayi sektöründeki işgücü verimliliği üzerinde pozitif bir etkiye sahiptir. Asimetrik nedensellik testinin bulguları ise Kaldor’un ilk yasasının geçerli olduğunu ancak ikinci yasasının geçerli olmadığını belirtmektedir. Diğer bir ifadeyle sanayi sektörü ekonomik büyümeyi desteklerken işgücü verimliliğine katkı sağlamamaktadır. Sonuç olarak, bulgular Kaldor kanunlarının geçerliliğinin kullanılan yönteme göre değişebildiğini göstermektedir.
Anahtar Kelime:

Belge Türü: Makale Makale Türü: Araştırma Makalesi Erişim Türü: Erişime Açık
  • Almosabbeh, I.A. and Almoree, M.A. (2018). The relationship between manufacturing production and economic growth in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Journal of Economic Studies, 45(4), 674–690.
  • Atesoglu, H.S. (1993). Manufacturing and Economic Growth in the United States. Applied Economics, 25(1), 67–69.
  • Bairam, E. (1991). Economic growth and Kaldor's law: The case of Turkey, 1925–78. Applied Economics, 23(8), 1277–1280.
  • Brown, R. L., Durbin, J. and Evans, J. M. (1975). Techniques for testing the constancy of regression relationships over time. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 37(2), 149–192.
  • Cripps, T. F. and Tarling, R. J. (1973). Growth in Advanced Capitalist Economies 1950–1970. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  • Cetin, M. (2009). Kaldor buyume yasasinin ampirik analizi: Turkiye ve AB ulkeleri ornegi (1981-2007). Afyon Kocatepe Universitesi İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, 11(1), 355–373.
  • Drakopoulos, S. A. and Theodossiou, I. (1991). Kaldorian approach to Greek economic growth. Applied Economics, 23(10), 1683–1689.
  • Doruk, Ö. T, Kardaşlar, A. and Kandır . D. (2013). Turkish economy’s great transformation: Industry, agriculture and economic growth in the process after 1980: A Review from the Perspective of Kaldor's First Growth Law. The Empirical Economics Letters, 12(6), 587–592.
  • Efron, B. (1979). Bootstrap methods: Another look at the Jackknife. Annals of Statistics, 7(1), 1–26.
  • Granger, C. W. (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 37(3), 424–438.
  • Granger, C. W. and Yoon G. (2002). Hidden cointegration, U of California, Economics Working Paper (2002-02).
  • https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=313831 (Accessed date: 20.09.2019).
  • Hacker, R. S. and Hatemi-J, A. (2006). Tests for causality between integrated variables using asymptotic and bootstrap distributions: Theory and application. Applied Economics, 38(13), 1489–1500.
  • Hatemi-J, A. (2003). A New method to choose optimal lag order in stable and unstable VAR models. Applied Economics Letters, 10(3), 135–137.
  • Hatemi-J, A. (2012). Asymmetric causality tests with an application. Empirical Economics, 43(1), 447–456.
  • McCombie, J. S. and De Ridder, J. R. (1983). Kaldor’s growth laws: increasing returns, productivity, and output growth, the case of the United States. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 5(3), 373–388.
  • Millin, M. and Nichola, T. (2005). Explaining economic growth in South Africa: A Kaldorian approach. International Journal of Technology Management & Sustainable Development, 4(1), 47–62.
  • Kaldor, N. (1957). A Model of economic growth. The Economic Journal, 67(268), 591–624.
  • Kaldor, N. (1966). Causes of the Slow Rate of Economic Growth of the United Kingdom: An Inaugural Lecture. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  • Kaldor, N. (1975). Economic growth and the Verdoorn Law--A comment on Mr Rowthorn's article. The Economic Journal, 85(340), 891–896.
  • Kaldor, N. (1977). Capitalism and industrial development: Some lessons from Britain's experience. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 1(2), 193–204.
  • Republic of Turkey Ministry of Development (2014). Decision on the Approval of the Tenth Development Plan (2014-2018). Ankara: Ministry of Development.
  • Keho, Y. (2018). Manufacturing and economic growth in ECOWAS countries: A test of Kaldor’s first law. Modern Economy, 9(5), 897–906.
  • Lumsdaine, R. L. and Papell, D. H. (1997). Multiple trend breaks and the unit-root hypothesis. Review of Economics and Statistics, 79(2), 212–218.
  • Marconi, N., de Borja Reis, C. F. and de Araú o, E. C. (2016). Manufacturing and economic development: the actuality of Kaldor's first and second laws. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 37, 75–89.
  • McCausland, W. D. and Theodossiou, I. (2012). Is manufacturing still the engine of growth?. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 35(1), 79–92.
  • Necmi, S. (1999). Kaldor’s growth analysis revisited. Applied Economics, 31(5), 653–660.
  • Opoku, E. E. O. and Yan, I. K. M. (2019). Industrialization as driver of sustainable economic growth in Africa. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 28(1), 30–56.
  • Rowthorn, R. E. (1975). What Remains of Kaldor's Law?. The Economic Journal, 85(337), 10–19.
  • Stoneman, P. (1979). Kaldor's law and British economic growth: 1800–1970. Applied Economics, 11(3), 309–319.
  • Tekeli, I. (2010). Sanayi Toplumu Icin Sanayi Yazilari. Istanbul: Tarih Vakfi Yurt Yayinlari.
  • Terzi, H. and Oltulular, S. (2004). Causal relationship between industrialization and economic growth in Turkey. Dogus University Journal, 5(2), 219– 226.
  • Thirlwall, A. P. (1983). A plain man’s guide to Kaldor’s growth laws. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 5(3), 345–358.
  • Toda, H. Y. and Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical inferences in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes. Journal of Econometrics, 66(1), 225–250.
  • TurkStat, (2014). Statistical Indicators 1923-2013. Ankara: Turkish Statistical Institute.
  • Wells, H. and Thirlwall, A. P. (2003). Testing Kaldor's growth laws across the countries of Africa. African Development Review, 15(2), 89–105.
  • Zivot, E. and Andrews, D. (1992). Further evidence of great crash, the oil price shock and unit root hypothesis, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 10(3), 251–270.
APA Pata U, ZENGIN H (2020). Testing Kaldor’s Growth Laws for Turkey: New Evidence from Symmetric and Asymmetric Causality Methods. , 713 - 729.
Chicago Pata Ugur Korkut,ZENGIN HILMI Testing Kaldor’s Growth Laws for Turkey: New Evidence from Symmetric and Asymmetric Causality Methods. (2020): 713 - 729.
MLA Pata Ugur Korkut,ZENGIN HILMI Testing Kaldor’s Growth Laws for Turkey: New Evidence from Symmetric and Asymmetric Causality Methods. , 2020, ss.713 - 729.
AMA Pata U,ZENGIN H Testing Kaldor’s Growth Laws for Turkey: New Evidence from Symmetric and Asymmetric Causality Methods. . 2020; 713 - 729.
Vancouver Pata U,ZENGIN H Testing Kaldor’s Growth Laws for Turkey: New Evidence from Symmetric and Asymmetric Causality Methods. . 2020; 713 - 729.
IEEE Pata U,ZENGIN H "Testing Kaldor’s Growth Laws for Turkey: New Evidence from Symmetric and Asymmetric Causality Methods." , ss.713 - 729, 2020.
ISNAD Pata, Ugur Korkut - ZENGIN, HILMI. "Testing Kaldor’s Growth Laws for Turkey: New Evidence from Symmetric and Asymmetric Causality Methods". (2020), 713-729.
APA Pata U, ZENGIN H (2020). Testing Kaldor’s Growth Laws for Turkey: New Evidence from Symmetric and Asymmetric Causality Methods. Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 10(2), 713 - 729.
Chicago Pata Ugur Korkut,ZENGIN HILMI Testing Kaldor’s Growth Laws for Turkey: New Evidence from Symmetric and Asymmetric Causality Methods. Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 10, no.2 (2020): 713 - 729.
MLA Pata Ugur Korkut,ZENGIN HILMI Testing Kaldor’s Growth Laws for Turkey: New Evidence from Symmetric and Asymmetric Causality Methods. Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, vol.10, no.2, 2020, ss.713 - 729.
AMA Pata U,ZENGIN H Testing Kaldor’s Growth Laws for Turkey: New Evidence from Symmetric and Asymmetric Causality Methods. Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi. 2020; 10(2): 713 - 729.
Vancouver Pata U,ZENGIN H Testing Kaldor’s Growth Laws for Turkey: New Evidence from Symmetric and Asymmetric Causality Methods. Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi. 2020; 10(2): 713 - 729.
IEEE Pata U,ZENGIN H "Testing Kaldor’s Growth Laws for Turkey: New Evidence from Symmetric and Asymmetric Causality Methods." Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 10, ss.713 - 729, 2020.
ISNAD Pata, Ugur Korkut - ZENGIN, HILMI. "Testing Kaldor’s Growth Laws for Turkey: New Evidence from Symmetric and Asymmetric Causality Methods". Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 10/2 (2020), 713-729.