Yıl: 2021 Cilt: 0 Sayı: 43 Sayfa Aralığı: 303 - 318 Metin Dili: Türkçe DOI: 10.30794/pausbed.829833 İndeks Tarihi: 12-10-2021

OECD ÜLKELERİNDE DOĞAL AFETLERİN BÜTÇE AÇIKLARI ÜZERİNE ETKİSİ: DİNAMİK PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ

Öz:
Bu çalışma, doğal afetlerin bütçe açıkları üzerindeki etkisini ampirik olarak analiz etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Çalışma 34 OECDülkesini ve 2000-2018 dönemini kapsamaktadır. İki aşamalı sistem GMM analizinden yararlanılarak elde edilen bulgular;kamu borcu, dış ticaret, GSYH büyümesi, doğal afetlerin toplam zarar maliyetleri bütçe açıklarını istatistiksel olarak anlamlı vepozitif, nüfus yoğunluğunu ise negatif etkilediğini göstermektedir. Çalışma sonuçları enflasyon ile bütçe açıkları arasında iseistatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir ilişki olmadığını ortaya koymaktadır.
Anahtar Kelime:

THE EFFECT OF NATURAL DISASTERS ON BUDGET DEFICITS IN OECD COUNTRIES: DYNAMIC PANEL DATA ANALYSIS

Öz:
This study aims to analyze empirically the impact of natural disasters on budget deficits. The study on 34 OECD countries covers the period 2000-2018. The results of the study obtained by employing two-stage system GMM analysis reveal public debt, foreign trade, GDP growth, and total loss costs of natural disasters affect the budget deficits statistically significantly and positively, while population density negatively affects the population density; however, there is no statistically significant relationship between inflation and budget deficits.
Anahtar Kelime:

Belge Türü: Makale Makale Türü: Araştırma Makalesi Erişim Türü: Erişime Açık
  • Akar, S. (2013). “Doğal Afetlerin Kamu Maliyesine ve Makroekonomiye Etkileri: Türkiye Değerlendirmesi”. Yönetim ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 21, 185-206.
  • Arellano, M. ve Bond, S. (1991). “Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations”. Review of Economic Studies, 58, 277-297.
  • Arellano, M. ve Bover, O. (1995). “Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error-Components Models”. Journal of Econometrics, 68, 29-51.
  • Benali, N., Abdelkafi, I. ve Feki, R. (2018). “Natural-Disaster Shocks and Government’s Behavior: Evidence from Middle Income Countries”. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 27, 1-16.
  • Benson, C. (1997). “The Economic Impact of Natural Disasters in Vietnam”. Overseas Development Institute, Working Paper 98.
  • Benson, C., Clay, E. (2003), “Economic and Financial Impacts of Natural Disasters: an Assessment of Their Effects and Options for Mitigation: Synthesis Report”. Overseas Development Institute, 1-120. Economic and Financial Impacts of Natural Disasters: an Assessment of Their Effects and Options for Mitigation - (odi.org)
  • Berke, B., Temiz, D. ve Karakurt, E. (2015). “Üçüz Açık ve Türkiye İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği”. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 10(2),67-89.
  • Berlemann, M. ve Wenzel, D. (2015). “Long-Term Growth Effects of Natural Disasters-Empirical Evidence for Droughts”. CESifo Working Paper No. 5598.
  • Blundell, R. ve Bond, S. (1998). “Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models”. Journal of Econometrics, 87, 115-143.
  • Botzen, W.J.W., Deschenes, O., Sanders, M. (2019), “The Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters: A Rewiev of Models and Empirical Studies”. Review of Enviromental Economics and Policy, 13(2), 167-188.
  • CEPS & ZEW (2010). “The Fiscal Implication of Climate Change Adaptation”. Final Report No: ECFIN/E/2008/008.
  • Cavallo, N., Noy, I. (2010), “The Economics of Natural Disasters A Survey”. Inter-American Development Bank, 1-50.
  • Çevik, S., Huang, G. (2018), “How to Notes-How to Manage the Fiscal Costs of Natural Disasters”, Fiscal Affairs Department, International Monetary Fund.
  • Dalyop, G. T. (2017). “Determinants of Fiscal Deficit in Conflict-affected States in Africa”. The International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, 12(4),69 – 95.
  • Dayton-Johnson, J. (2006). “Natural Disaster and Vulnerability”. OECD Development Centre Policy Brief, No. 29.
  • ECLAC, (1991). “Manual For Estimating The Socio – Economic Effects of Natural Disasters”. United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America And The Caribbean Programme Planning And Operations Division.
  • EM-DAT (2008). The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database Universite Catholique de Louvain-BrusselsBelgium, (11.10.2020), http://www.emdat.be/Database/terms.html.
  • Ferreira, S. ve Cuñado, J. (2011). “The Macroeconomic Impacts of Natural Disasters: the Case of Floods”. Land Econ., 90 (1),149–168.
  • Gali, J. ve Perotti, R. (2003). “Fiscal Policy and Monetary Integration in Europe”. Economic Policy, 18, 533–572.
  • Gassebner, M., Keck, A. ve Teh, R. (2008). “Shaken, not Stirred: the Impact of Disasters on International Trade”. Review of International Economics, 18(2), 351-368.
  • Haan, J. ve Sturm, J.-E. (1994). “Political and Institutional Determinants of Fiscal Policy in the European Community”. Public Choice, 80, 157 - 172.
  • Hallegatte, S. ve Przyluski, V. (2010), “The Economics of Natural Disasters Concepts and Methods”. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 5507, 1-29.
  • Hallerberg, M. ve Von Hagen, J. (1999). “Electoral Institutions, Cabinet Negotiations, and Budget Deficits within the European Union”. Fiscal institutions and fiscal performance, (Ed: In Poterba, J., ve Von Hagen, J.), Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
  • Hallerberg, M., Von Hagen, J. ve Strauch, R. (2004). “The Design of Fiscal Rules and Forms of Governance in European Union Countries”. ECB Working Paper Series, No. 419.
  • Heger, M. ve Julca, A. O. (2008). “Paddison, Analysing the Impact of Natural Hazards in Small Economies: The Caribbean Case”. UNU/WIDER Research Paper.
  • Heipertz, M. ve Nickel, C. (2008). “Climate Change Brings Stormy Days: Case Studies on the Impact of Extreme Weather Events on Public Finances”. In Fiscal Sustainability, Analytical Developments and Emerging Policy, 3–5.
  • Horwich, G. (2000), “Economic lessons from the Kobe earthquake”. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 48, 521-542.
  • Javid, Y., Arif, A. U. ve Arif, A. (2011), “Economic, Political and Institutional Determinants of Budget Deficits Volatility in Selected Asian Countries”. The Pakistan Development Review, 50(4), 649 - 662.
  • Kahn, M.E. (2005), “The Death Toll from Natural Disasters: The Role of Income, Geography, and Institutions”. Review of Economics and Statistics, 87(2), 271-284.
  • Kahn, M. E., Mohaddes, K., Pesaran, M. H., Raissi, M. ve Yang, J.C. (2019). “Long-Term Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change: A Cross-Country Analysis”. Nber Working Paper Series, 26167.
  • Kaya, M. G. ve Öz, E. (2016). “Enaflasyon, Bütçe Açığı ve Para Arzı İlişkisinin Türkiye Ekonomisi Açısından Değerlendirilmesi: 1980-2014 Dönemi”. Yönetim ve Ekonomi, 23(3),639-651.
  • Kutasi, G. (2011). Modeling the Fiscal Impacts Caused by Climate Change. In: 3rd International Scientific Conference: Sustainable Development, 10-11 June 2011, Ravda, Bulgaria.
  • Lis, E. M. ve Nickel, C. (2010). “The Impact of Extreme Weather Events on Budget Balances”. Int Tax Public Finance, 17,378–399.
  • Mahar, P., Lynch, J.A.,Wathen, J., Tham, E., Berman, S., Doraiswamy, S., Maina, A.G.K. (t.y.), “Disasters and their Effects on the Population: Key Concepts”. hhtps://www.aap.org/en-us/Decuments/disasters_dpac_ PEDsModule1.pdf (aap.org)
  • Mirza, M. M. Q. (2003). “Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events: Can Developing Countries Adapt?”. Climate Policy, 3, 233-248.
  • Morgan Stanley (2020). Climate Change Investment Risk and Bonds. (19.11.2020), https://www.morganstanley. com/ideas/ bondholders-to-companies-lets-talk-climate-change
  • Munich Re (2013). “Natural Catastrophes 2012 Analyses, Assessments, Positions”. NatCatService Topics Geo, 2013 Issue, 49-55.
  • Munich Re (2020a). “Factsheet Natural Catastrophes in 2019”. January 2020. (19.11.2020), https://www. munichre.com/content/dam/munichre/global/content-pieces/documents/media-relations/Factsheetnatural-disasters-2019.pdf/_jcr_content/renditions/original./Factsheet-natural-disasters-2019.pdf.
  • Munich Re (2020b). “Natural Disaster Risks: Losses are Trending Upwards”. (08.10.2020), https://www.munichre. com/en/risks/natural-disasters-losses-are-trending-upwards.html#-1624621007
  • Murlidharan, T. L. ve Shah, H. C. (2001). “Catastrophes and Macro-Economic Risk Factors: An Empirical Study, in: Proceedings of the Conference on ‘Integrated Disaster Risk Management: Reducing Socio-Economic Vulnerability”. Laxenburg, Austria, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA).
  • Natural Research Council (1999). “The Impacts of Natural Disasters: A Framework for Loss Estimation”. National Academy Press, Washington DC.
  • Nordhaus, W. D. ve Boyer, J. (2000). “Warming the World: Economic Models of Global Warming”. Cambridge: MIT Press.
  • Noy, I. ve Nualsri, A. (2007). “What Do Exogenous Shocks Tell Us About Growth Theories?”. University of Hawaii Economics Working paper, 07-28.
  • Noy, I. ve Nualsri, A. (2008). “Fiscal Storms: Public Spending and Revenues in the Aftermath of Natural Disasters”. University of Hawaii Working Paper.
  • Noy, I. (2009). “The Macroeconomic Consequences of Disasters”. Journal of Development Economics, 88, 221– 231.
  • Pelling, M., Özedem, A. ve Barakat, S. (2002). “The Macro-Economic Impact of Disasters”. Progress in Development Studies, 2,4, 283-305.
  • Phaup, M. ve Kirschner, C. (2010). “Budgeting for Disasters: Focusing on the Good Times”. OECD Journal on Budgeting, 2010/1.
  • Raddatz, C. (2007). “Are External Shocks Responsible for the Instability of Output in Low-Income Countries?”. Journal of Development Economics, 84, 155–187.
  • Roubini, N. ve Sachs, J. (1989). “Political and Economic Determinants of Budget Deficits in the Industrial Democracies”. European Economic Review, 33 (5), 903 - 938.
  • Schuknecht, L. (1999). “Fiscal Policy Cycles and the Exchange Rate Regime in Developing Countries”. European Journal of Political Economy, 15, 569–580.
  • Scott – Joseph, A. (2010). “Financing Recovery: Implications of Natural Disaster Indebtedness on the Fiscal Sustainability of the Eastern Caribbean Currency Unit (ECCU)”. Journal of Business, Finance and Economics in Emerging Economies, 5(2),2 – 36.
  • Skidmore,M. ve Toya, H. (2002). “Do Natural Disasters Promote Long-Run Growth?”. Economic Inquiry, 40(4), 664–687.
  • Stern N. ve Michael J. (2006). “The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review”. (16.04.2020), http:// mudancasclimaticas.cptec.inpe.br/rmclima/pdfs/destaques/sternreview_report_complete.pdf.
  • Stern, N. (2007). The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review. 1st. Ed., Cambridge: Cambridge University Pres.
  • Strömberg, D. (2007). “Natural Disasters, Economic Development, and Humanitarian Aid”. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 21(3), 199222.
  • Tujula, M. ve Wolswijk, G. (2007). “Budget Balances in OECD Countries: What Makes Them Change?”. Empirica, 34, 1–14.
  • Volkerink, B. ve Haan, J. (2001). “Fragmented Government Effects on Fiscal Policy: New Evidence”. Public Choice, 109, 221 - 242.
  • Woo, J. (2003). “Economic, Political, and Institutional Determinants of Public Deficits”. Journal of Public Economics, 87 (3 – 4), 387 - 426.
  • World Bank, (2004). Understanding the Economic and Financial Impacts of Natural Disasters. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Washington, DC 20433.
  • World Bank, (2020). Disaster Risk Management. https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/disasterriskmanagement/ overview
  • Xu, J., Wang, Z., Shen, F., Ouyang F. ve Yan Tu (2016). “Natural Disasters and Social Conflict: A Systematic Literature Review”. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 17, 38-48.
  • Yerdelen Tatoğlu, F. (2013). İleri Panel Veri Analizi Stata Uygulamaları, 2. Baskı, Beta Yayınevi, İstanbul.
  • Beyan ve Açıklamalar (Disclosure Statements)
  • 1. Bu çalışmanın yazarları, araştırma ve yayın etiği ilkelerine uyduklarını kabul etmektedirler (The authors of this article confirm that their work complies with the principles of research and publication ethics).
  • 2. Yazarlar tarafından herhangi bir çıkar çatışması beyan edilmemiştir (No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors).
  • 3. Bu çalışma, intihal tarama programı kullanılarak intihal taramasından geçirilmiştir (This article was screened for potential plagiarism using a plagiarism screening program).
APA keyifli n (2021). OECD ÜLKELERİNDE DOĞAL AFETLERİN BÜTÇE AÇIKLARI ÜZERİNE ETKİSİ: DİNAMİK PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ. , 303 - 318. 10.30794/pausbed.829833
Chicago keyifli nazlı OECD ÜLKELERİNDE DOĞAL AFETLERİN BÜTÇE AÇIKLARI ÜZERİNE ETKİSİ: DİNAMİK PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ. (2021): 303 - 318. 10.30794/pausbed.829833
MLA keyifli nazlı OECD ÜLKELERİNDE DOĞAL AFETLERİN BÜTÇE AÇIKLARI ÜZERİNE ETKİSİ: DİNAMİK PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ. , 2021, ss.303 - 318. 10.30794/pausbed.829833
AMA keyifli n OECD ÜLKELERİNDE DOĞAL AFETLERİN BÜTÇE AÇIKLARI ÜZERİNE ETKİSİ: DİNAMİK PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ. . 2021; 303 - 318. 10.30794/pausbed.829833
Vancouver keyifli n OECD ÜLKELERİNDE DOĞAL AFETLERİN BÜTÇE AÇIKLARI ÜZERİNE ETKİSİ: DİNAMİK PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ. . 2021; 303 - 318. 10.30794/pausbed.829833
IEEE keyifli n "OECD ÜLKELERİNDE DOĞAL AFETLERİN BÜTÇE AÇIKLARI ÜZERİNE ETKİSİ: DİNAMİK PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ." , ss.303 - 318, 2021. 10.30794/pausbed.829833
ISNAD keyifli, nazlı. "OECD ÜLKELERİNDE DOĞAL AFETLERİN BÜTÇE AÇIKLARI ÜZERİNE ETKİSİ: DİNAMİK PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ". (2021), 303-318. https://doi.org/10.30794/pausbed.829833
APA keyifli n (2021). OECD ÜLKELERİNDE DOĞAL AFETLERİN BÜTÇE AÇIKLARI ÜZERİNE ETKİSİ: DİNAMİK PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ. Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 0(43), 303 - 318. 10.30794/pausbed.829833
Chicago keyifli nazlı OECD ÜLKELERİNDE DOĞAL AFETLERİN BÜTÇE AÇIKLARI ÜZERİNE ETKİSİ: DİNAMİK PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ. Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi 0, no.43 (2021): 303 - 318. 10.30794/pausbed.829833
MLA keyifli nazlı OECD ÜLKELERİNDE DOĞAL AFETLERİN BÜTÇE AÇIKLARI ÜZERİNE ETKİSİ: DİNAMİK PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ. Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, vol.0, no.43, 2021, ss.303 - 318. 10.30794/pausbed.829833
AMA keyifli n OECD ÜLKELERİNDE DOĞAL AFETLERİN BÜTÇE AÇIKLARI ÜZERİNE ETKİSİ: DİNAMİK PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ. Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi. 2021; 0(43): 303 - 318. 10.30794/pausbed.829833
Vancouver keyifli n OECD ÜLKELERİNDE DOĞAL AFETLERİN BÜTÇE AÇIKLARI ÜZERİNE ETKİSİ: DİNAMİK PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ. Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi. 2021; 0(43): 303 - 318. 10.30794/pausbed.829833
IEEE keyifli n "OECD ÜLKELERİNDE DOĞAL AFETLERİN BÜTÇE AÇIKLARI ÜZERİNE ETKİSİ: DİNAMİK PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ." Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 0, ss.303 - 318, 2021. 10.30794/pausbed.829833
ISNAD keyifli, nazlı. "OECD ÜLKELERİNDE DOĞAL AFETLERİN BÜTÇE AÇIKLARI ÜZERİNE ETKİSİ: DİNAMİK PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ". Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi 43 (2021), 303-318. https://doi.org/10.30794/pausbed.829833