Graphic Estimation of SARS-CoV-2 (Covid 19) outbreak in timeline from 11th of March to 2 nd of May 2020
Yıl: 2020 Cilt: 14 Sayı: 2 Sayfa Aralığı: 171 - 176 Metin Dili: İngilizce DOI: 10.21763/tjfmpc.731349 İndeks Tarihi: 17-06-2020
Graphic Estimation of SARS-CoV-2 (Covid 19) outbreak in timeline from 11th of March to 2 nd of May 2020
Öz: The outbreak of Sars-Cov-2 pandemic has reached the peak infection rate in several countries. Since the start of outbreak Turkey in10th of March 2020 ministry of health announced the figures about the number of performed tests, number of confirmed cases,number deaths related to outbreak, number of patients in intensive care units and intubated, and number of healed patients. We usedregression analysis curve estimation method to predict the probable end point of outbreak. Cubic regression estimation was calculatedas the most appropriate method of estimation (R2: 0.978). Finally future prediction of the SARS-CoV-2 infection course is determinedas minimum of 90 days according to the observed data up to date. The decrease in the number of individuals in intensive care unit orintubated may be ten to twenty days later after the decrease or disappearance of confirmed cases.
Anahtar Kelime: Sars-CoV-2 (Covid 19) salgınının 11 Mart-8 Mayıs zaman çizelgesinde grafik olarak değerlendirilmesi
Öz: Sars-Cov-2 pandemisi çoğu ülkede zirve enfeksiyon seviyesine erişti. Türkiye’de salgının başladığı 1o Mart 2020 tarihinden beri sağlık bakanlığı yapılan test sayısı, test ile doğrulanan vaka sayısı, salgınla ilişkili ölüm sayısı, yoğunbakımda olan ve entübe olan hastaların sayısı ve iyileşen hasta sayılarını yayınlamaktadır. Regresyon analizini eğri tahmini yöntemini salgının muhtemel sonlanım noktasını bulmak için kullandık. Kübük regresyon tahmini en uygun tahmin yöntemi olarak bellirlendi (R2: 0.978). Sonuç olarak SARS-CoV-2 enfeksiyonunun geleceği ile ilgili değerlendirme bugüne kadar gözlenen verilere göre en az 90 gün olarak belirlenmiştir. Yoğun bakımda bulunan ya da entübe olan hastaların sayısın azalması on ila yirmi gün sonrasında olabilir, daha sonra doğrulanan vaka sayılarında azalma ya da ortadan kalma görülebilir.
Anahtar Kelime: Belge Türü: Makale Makale Türü: Editöre Mektup Erişim Türü: Erişime Açık
- 1. World Health Organization report. COVID19) Situation Report – 76 pp: 3
- 2. Pan A, Liu, Li, Wang C, Guo H, Hao X, Wang Qi, Huang J, He N, Yu H, Lin X, Wei S, Wu T. Association of Public Health Interventions With the Epidemiology of the COVID-19 Outbreak inWuhan, China. [Epub ahead of print] JAMA 2020: E1-E9
- 3. https://covid19.saglik.gov.tr. Reached: 03.05.2020.
| APA | MAZICIOĞLU M (2020). Graphic Estimation of SARS-CoV-2 (Covid 19) outbreak in timeline from 11th of March to 2 nd of May 2020. , 171 - 176. 10.21763/tjfmpc.731349 |
| Chicago | MAZICIOĞLU M. Mümtaz Graphic Estimation of SARS-CoV-2 (Covid 19) outbreak in timeline from 11th of March to 2 nd of May 2020. (2020): 171 - 176. 10.21763/tjfmpc.731349 |
| MLA | MAZICIOĞLU M. Mümtaz Graphic Estimation of SARS-CoV-2 (Covid 19) outbreak in timeline from 11th of March to 2 nd of May 2020. , 2020, ss.171 - 176. 10.21763/tjfmpc.731349 |
| AMA | MAZICIOĞLU M Graphic Estimation of SARS-CoV-2 (Covid 19) outbreak in timeline from 11th of March to 2 nd of May 2020. . 2020; 171 - 176. 10.21763/tjfmpc.731349 |
| Vancouver | MAZICIOĞLU M Graphic Estimation of SARS-CoV-2 (Covid 19) outbreak in timeline from 11th of March to 2 nd of May 2020. . 2020; 171 - 176. 10.21763/tjfmpc.731349 |
| IEEE | MAZICIOĞLU M "Graphic Estimation of SARS-CoV-2 (Covid 19) outbreak in timeline from 11th of March to 2 nd of May 2020." , ss.171 - 176, 2020. 10.21763/tjfmpc.731349 |
| ISNAD | MAZICIOĞLU, M. Mümtaz. "Graphic Estimation of SARS-CoV-2 (Covid 19) outbreak in timeline from 11th of March to 2 nd of May 2020". (2020), 171-176. https://doi.org/10.21763/tjfmpc.731349 |
| APA | MAZICIOĞLU M (2020). Graphic Estimation of SARS-CoV-2 (Covid 19) outbreak in timeline from 11th of March to 2 nd of May 2020. Turkish Journal of Family Medicine and Primary Care, 14(2), 171 - 176. 10.21763/tjfmpc.731349 |
| Chicago | MAZICIOĞLU M. Mümtaz Graphic Estimation of SARS-CoV-2 (Covid 19) outbreak in timeline from 11th of March to 2 nd of May 2020. Turkish Journal of Family Medicine and Primary Care 14, no.2 (2020): 171 - 176. 10.21763/tjfmpc.731349 |
| MLA | MAZICIOĞLU M. Mümtaz Graphic Estimation of SARS-CoV-2 (Covid 19) outbreak in timeline from 11th of March to 2 nd of May 2020. Turkish Journal of Family Medicine and Primary Care, vol.14, no.2, 2020, ss.171 - 176. 10.21763/tjfmpc.731349 |
| AMA | MAZICIOĞLU M Graphic Estimation of SARS-CoV-2 (Covid 19) outbreak in timeline from 11th of March to 2 nd of May 2020. Turkish Journal of Family Medicine and Primary Care. 2020; 14(2): 171 - 176. 10.21763/tjfmpc.731349 |
| Vancouver | MAZICIOĞLU M Graphic Estimation of SARS-CoV-2 (Covid 19) outbreak in timeline from 11th of March to 2 nd of May 2020. Turkish Journal of Family Medicine and Primary Care. 2020; 14(2): 171 - 176. 10.21763/tjfmpc.731349 |
| IEEE | MAZICIOĞLU M "Graphic Estimation of SARS-CoV-2 (Covid 19) outbreak in timeline from 11th of March to 2 nd of May 2020." Turkish Journal of Family Medicine and Primary Care, 14, ss.171 - 176, 2020. 10.21763/tjfmpc.731349 |
| ISNAD | MAZICIOĞLU, M. Mümtaz. "Graphic Estimation of SARS-CoV-2 (Covid 19) outbreak in timeline from 11th of March to 2 nd of May 2020". Turkish Journal of Family Medicine and Primary Care 14/2 (2020), 171-176. https://doi.org/10.21763/tjfmpc.731349 |
